干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (5): 907-921.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.05.13 cstr: 32277.14.AZR.20250513

• 生态与环境 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国西北省会及典型城市2010—2022年水资源承载力评价与发展阈值评估

刘拉军1,2(), 袁秀亮1,3(), 井长青4, 潘昌祥1,3   

  1. 1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所， 干旱区生态安全与可持续发展全国重点实验室， 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011
    2.新疆农业大学资源与环境学院， 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052
    3.中国科学院大学， 北京 100049
    4.新疆农业大学草业学院， 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830052
  • 收稿日期:2025-03-17 修回日期:2025-04-23 出版日期:2025-05-15 发布日期:2025-10-22
  • 通讯作者: 袁秀亮. E-mail: yuanxiuliang@ms.xjb.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:刘拉军（1999-），男，硕士研究生，主要从事干旱区水资源研究. E-mail: liulajun@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2023YFF1304700)

Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and development threshold in provincial capitals and typical cities of Northwest China from 2010 to 2022

LIU Lajun1,2(), YUAN Xiuliang1,3(), JING Changqing4, PAN Changxiang1,3   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
    2. College of Resources and Environment, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang, China
    3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    4. College of Grassland Science, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang, China
  • Received:2025-03-17 Revised:2025-04-23 Published:2025-05-15 Online:2025-10-22

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摘要：

本研究基于水资源、社会、经济和生态4个维度构建水资源承载力评价体系，并采用改进的逼近理想解排序模型（Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution，TOPSIS）对中国西北省会城市及典型城市2010—2022年的水资源承载力进行评价。研究首次引入贝叶斯优化算法进行水资源优化配置，并据此计算各产业的水资源可支撑发展阈值。研究结果表明：（1） 中国西北省会城市及典型城市2010—2022年的水资源承载力平均值在0.3~0.5之间，处于中等水平，除石嘴山市、西安市和银川市外，其余城市的水资源承载力均呈现显著提升趋势（P<0.05）。（2） 水资源维度对水资源承载力的影响最大，其次为社会和生态维度，经济维度影响最小。（3） 基于2022年数据的优化配置结果显示，农业用水量与生态用水量有所减少，而工业用水量与生活用水量显著增加。各城市在最优用水配置下的预估综合效益与总GDP均优于现状，其中石嘴山市的优化效果最为显著，综合效益得分提升41.49%。本研究可为中国西北省会城市及典型城市的水资源可持续开发利用与合理优化配置提供科学依据。

关键词: 中国西北, 水资源承载力, TOPSIS, 贝叶斯优化, 发展阈值

Abstract:

Based on the four dimensions of water resources, society, economy, and ecology, this study constructs an evaluation system for water resources carrying capacity. It uses the improved Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) model to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of capital cities and typical cities in Northwest China from 2010 to 2022. The Bayesian optimization algorithm is introduced for the first time to optimize the allocation of water resources, and the threshold of water resources supportable development for each industry is calculated accordingly. The results show that: (1) The average water resources carrying capacity of provincial capitals and typical cities in Northwest China from 2010 to 2022 falls between 0.3 and 0.5, indicating a medium level. With the exception of Shizuishan, Xi’an, and Yinchuan, the water resources carrying capacity of other cities shows a significant upward trend (P<0.05). (2) The water resources dimension has the greatest impact on the water resources carrying capacity, followed by the social and ecological dimensions, while the economic dimension has the least impact. (3) The optimal allocation results based on 2022 data show a decrease in agricultural and ecological water consumption, while industrial and domestic water consumption have significantly increased. The estimated comprehensive benefits and total GDP of each city under the optimal water allocation are better than the current situation. Among them, the optimization effect of Shizuishan City is the most significant, with a 41.49% increase in comprehensive benefit score. This study provides a scientific basis for the sustainable development, utilization, and rational optimal allocation of water resources in capital cities and typical cities in Northwest China.

Key words: Northwest China, water resources carrying capacity, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution, Bayesian optimization, development threshold