准噶尔盆地植被变化趋势及相关因素分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.05.22

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探讨植被对环境变化的响应,采用2000—2019年MOD09A1遥感影像数据,利用最大值合成法、Mann-Kendall、Hurst趋势分析、水热配合分析等方法对准噶尔盆地植被动态变化及相关因素进行了分析。结果表明：受区域气候暖湿化、冷季降水增加及滴灌技术普及的影响,近20 a来准噶尔盆地植被整体呈增加趋势,增加区面积各季节平均占比为85.47%,减少区面积平均占比为12.61%。局部地势低洼易于积水、聚盐的区域植被表现为减少趋势。植被指数与盐渍化指数相关性分析表明两者呈负相关关系。绿洲区域植被变化主要受人类活动调控。Hurst趋势预测结果表明,盆地植被未来变化趋势方向与近20 a变化趋势的方向基本保持一致。研究结果对全球变暖和人类活动背景下盆地各生境植物群落的演替规律及成因具有一定的参考价值。

关键词: 气候, 植被, 盐渍化, 相关性分析

Abstract:

To explore the response of vegetation to environmental change, the vegetation dynamic changes and correlative factors in the Junggar Basin were analyzed by using the maximum value composite method, Mann-Kendall, Hurst trend analysis, hydro-thermal coordination analysis, and other methods based on MOD09A1 remote sensing image data from 2000 to 2019. The results showed an increasing vegetation area in the Junggar Basin in the past 20 years due to the warming and wetting of the regional climate, the increase of precipitation in the cold season, and the popularization of drip irrigation technology. The average percentage of area where vegetation presented an increasing trend and a decreasing trend in each season was 85.47% and 12.61%, respectively. The low-lying areas prone to converge water and salt showed a decreasing trend in vegetation. The vegetation and salinization indexes were negatively correlated. Vegetation changes in oasis areas were mainly regulated by human activities. The results of the Hurst trend prediction showed that the future trend of vegetation change in the basin was basically consistent with the trend of vegetation change in the past 20 years. The results of this study have certain reference value for the succession and genesis of plant communities in different habitats of the basin under the background of global warming and human activities.

Key words: climate, vegetation, salinization, correlation analysis

马小梅,杜秉晨曦,程勇翔,吴玲. 准噶尔盆地植被变化趋势及相关因素分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(5): 1401-1410.

MA Xiaomei,DU Bingchenxi,CHNEG Yongxiang,WU Ling. Analysis of vegetation variation trend and correlative factors in Junggar Basin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(5): 1401-1410.

图/表 11

图1

表1

Man-Kendall趋势变化的等级划分"

统计值	等级	缩写	赋值
$Z ≥ 1.96$	显著增加	$SII$	2
$0 < Z < 1.96$	一般增加	$SLI$	1
$Z = 0$	不变	$Con$	0
$- 1.96 < Z < 0$	一般减少	$SLD$	-1
$Z ≤ - 1.96$	显著减少	$SID$	-2

表1

表2

图2

图3

表3

图4

表4

图5

图6

图7

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等级	春季		夏季		秋季		生长季
等级	面积/10⁵km²	占比/%	面积/10⁵km²	占比/%	面积/10⁵km²	占比/%	面积/10⁵km²	占比/%
显著减少	0.08	2.23	0.04	1.05	0.03	0.74	0.04	0.93
一般减少	0.42	11.27	0.48	12.68	0.38	10.17	0.3	7.98
不变	0.07	1.73	0.06	1.68	0.08	2.04	0.04	1.04
一般增加	2.20	58.52	2.13	56.67	2.29	61.07	2.02	53.64
显著增加	0.99	26.25	1.05	27.92	0.98	25.99	1.37	36.41

等级	春季		夏季		秋季		生长季
等级	面积/10⁵ km²	占比/%	面积/10⁵ km²	占比/%	面积/10⁵ km²	占比/%	面积/10⁵ km²	占比/%
显著减少	1.48	39.51	0.79	21.15	0.62	16.63	1.21	32.34
一般减少	1.71	45.58	2.18	58.03	1.98	52.79	1.82	48.35
不变	0.15	3.93	0.18	4.68	0.20	5.31	0.17	4.64
一般增加	0.35	9.36	0.55	14.59	0.89	23.66	0.48	12.80
显著增加	0.06	1.62	0.06	1.55	0.06	1.62	0.07	1.86

等级	春季		夏季		秋季		生长季
等级	面积/10⁵ km²	占比/%	面积/10⁵ km²	占比/%	面积/10⁵ km²	占比/%	面积//10⁵ km²	占比/%
NDVI减少,SRSI减少	0.09	3.38	0.17	5.99	0.05	1.86	0.05	2.89
NDVI减少,SRSI增加	0.15	5.76	0.21	7.42	0.20	7.34	0.06	3.28
NDVI增加,SRSI减少	2.23	86.92	2.24	80.19	2.10	75.40	1.54	83.74
NDVI增加,SRSI增加	0.10	3.93	0.18	6.40	0.43	15.40	0.19	10.09