近60 a巴尔喀什湖水量平衡变化及其影响因素

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.02.07

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on hydrological observations and remote-sensing monitoring data, time series and water level of Lake Balkhash in the past 60 years were extracted to reconstruct the Lake Balkhash water level-area-volume capacity curve. Additionally, we explored the characteristics of the Lake Precipitation volume changes, established a water balance model of Lake Balkhash based on water revenue (runoff, precipitation, and groundwater recharge) and expenditure (evaporation and infiltration), and quantitatively analyzed the changes in water balance elements in Lake Balkhash. The interaction between water revenue and expenditure and the influence mechanism was explored based on climate change and human activities over time. Results showed that (1) the water volume of Lake Balkhash decreased sharply at first and then fluctuated from 1961 to 2020. The change process of runoff into the lake was consistent with the water volume, and the average annual runoff was approximately 14.04 km³. Precipitation in the lake area fluctuated at a rate of 0.28 mm·a^-1. Additionally, the average annual evaporation of the lake was about 17.95 km³, with a minimum of 16.10 km³ in 1987 and a maximum of 20.30 km³ in 2008. Moreover, (2) the groundwater and the lake supplemented each other, groundwater recharge was relatively high (about 1.91 km³) in the 1970s and 1980s. (3) At the lake scale, the change in runoff into the lake significantly correlated with the volume of Lake Balkhash and was the dominant factor of water volume change in Lake Balkhash. Furthermore, at the basin scale, the contribution of climate fluctuations to long-term changes in runoff to the lake was 71.67%, and the contribution of human activities was 28.33%. The contribution of Kapchagay reservoir establishment and the expansion of surrounding arable land from 1970 to 1985 to the sharp decline in water inflow to the lake was 47.47%. Finally, human activities have exacerbated the declining water levels in the lake during this period.

Key words: Lake Balkhash, water balance, factorial analysis, evaporation, water volume, inland river basin

WANG Zheng,HUANG Yue,LIU Tie,ZHONG Ruisen,ZAN Chanjuan,WANG Xiaofei. Analyzing the water balance of Lake Balkhash and its influencing factors[J].Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(2): 400-409.

Figures/Tables 10

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References 38

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时段	湖区气温	湖区降水	入湖径流	湖面蒸发
1961—1969年	0.142	-0.034	0.078	-0.101
1970—1985年	-0.258	-0.187	0.436^*	0.155
1986—2005年	-0.564^**	-0.153	0.419^*	0.468^*
2006—2020年	-0.486	0.124	0.763^**	0.029

时段	卡上171（卡库入库）	卡普恰盖（卡库出库）	乌斯热尔玛（三角洲入流）
1960—1969年	14.56	13.90	14.90
1970—1985年	13.77	11.72	11.55
1986—1995年	14.10	13.53	13.47
1996—2005年	16.44	15.73	15.29
2006—2020年	14.41	13.18	12.86
均值	14.56	13.61	13.61
1956—2000年^[12]	14.36	13.49	13.35

时段	贡献率/%
时段	山区气温	山区降水	干流区间耗水
1961—1969年	46.38	53.06	0.55
1970—1985年	44.93	7.596	47.47
1986—2020年	4.91	64.89	30.18
1961—2020年	5.00	66.67	28.33

Analyzing the water balance of Lake Balkhash and its influencing factors

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