1961—2017年新疆极端暖事件变化特征及其未来情景预估

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.06.11

Abstract

Abstract:

Studying climate extreme events and extreme warm events provides theoretical and practical value to tackle climate change and formulate disaster reduction and prevention policies. In this article, multimodel averaging was modeled by selecting climate models yielding better simulation results using simulation accuracy verification based on Chinese daily surface temperature datasets from 1961 to 2017 and CMIP6 climate model data from 1961 to 2050. We used climate tendency rates and inverse distance weight methods to study spatiotemporal changes over time, including frequency and intensity of extreme warm events in Xinjiang from June to September in the past and future. During the last 57 years, the number of days and frequency and intensity of extreme warm events in Xinjiang were 0.2 d·(10a)^-1, 0.02 times·(10a)^-1, 0.04 ℃·(10a)^-1, respectively, showing an increased trend. The spatial distribution of days and frequency of extreme warm events were higher in southern Xinjiang than northern regions and the highest incidence area was the west of southern Xinjiang. While the spatial distribution of intensity in extreme warm events was high in the north and low in the south, northern Xinjiang showed the highest intensity area. In the following 33 years, the days, frequency, and intensity of extreme warm events were predicted to increase significantly, where the days of extreme warm events will increase by 21 days and 28 days under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Compared with average levels from 1961 to 2017, the frequency of extreme warm events will increase by 1.6-and 1.8-fold and the intensity of extreme warm events will increase by 1.2 ℃ and 1.3 ℃. In addition, the increasing trend under SSP585 is more significant. High incidence areas for number of days and frequency of extreme warm events are located in the middle of southern Xinjiang. The high incidence area for intensity of extreme warm events is located in southern Xinjiang. An increase in the number of days, frequency, and intensity of extreme warm events in southern Xinjiang is greater than northern Xinjiang. Finally, changes in the position of Iran subtropical high pressure, western Pacific subtropical high pressure, and changes in soil moisture can influence the severity of extreme warm events in Xinjiang.

Key words: extreme warm events, multi-model ensemble, temporal-spatial change, scenario projections, Xinjiang

LIU Lu,LIU Puxing,ZHANG Wangxiong,SI Wenyang,QIAO Xuemei. Variation characteristics of extreme warm events from 1961 to 2017 and projection for future scenarios in Xinjiang, China[J].Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(6): 1590-1600.

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模式名称	机构及所属国家	空间分辨率
AWI-CM-1-1-MR	AWI,德国	0.97°×0.93°
BCC-CSM2-MR	BBC,中国	1.13°×1.12°
CanESM5	CCCma,加拿大	2.81°×2.79°
EC-Earth3	EC-Earth-Cons,欧盟	0.7°×0.7°
EC-Earth3-Veg	EC-Earth-Cons,欧盟	0.7°×0.7°
FGOALS-g3	FGOALS,中国	2°×2.03°
GFDL-CM4	NOAA-GFDL,美国	1.25°×1°
GFDL-ESM4	NOAA-GFDL,美国	1.25°×1°
IPSL-CM6A-LR	IPSL,法国	2.5°×1.27°
INM-CM4-8	INM,俄罗斯	2°×1.5°
INM-CM5-0	INM,俄罗斯	2°×1.5°
MPI-ESM1-2-LR	MPI-M,德国	1.88°×1.87°
NESM3	NUIST,中国	1.88°×1.87°
NorESM2-LM	NCC,挪威	2.5°×1.89°

Variation characteristics of extreme warm events from 1961 to 2017 and projection for future scenarios in Xinjiang, China

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