〔1〕 Sheffield J,Wood E F,Roderick M L.Little change in global drought over the past 60 years〔J〕.Nature,2012,491(7 424):435-438. 〔2〕 Hao Z,Singh V P.Drought characterization from a multivariate perspective:A review〔J〕.Journal of Hydrology,2015,527:668-678. 〔3〕 Zhang L,Jiao W,Zhang H,et al.Studying drought phenomena in the Continental United States in 2011 and 2012 using various drought indices〔J〕.Remote Sensing of Environment,2017,190:96-106. 〔4〕 Bernstein L.IPCC (2007) climate change 2007:Synthesis report.Intergovernmental panel on climate change〔J〕.Encyclopedia of Energy Natural Resource & Environmental Economics,2007,27(1):48-56. 〔5〕 Glantz M H.Understanding:The drought phenomenon:The role of definitions〔J〕.Water International,1985,10(3):111-120. 〔6〕 王劲松,李耀辉,王润元,等.我国气象干旱研究进展评述〔J〕,干旱气象,2012,30(4):497-508.〔Wang Jinsong,Li Yaohui,Wang Runyuan,et al.Preliminary analysis on the demand and review of progress in the field of meteorological drought research〔J〕.Journal of Arid Meteorology,2012,30(4):497-508.〕 〔7〕 陈晓楠,段春青,刘昌明,等.基于两层土壤计算模式的农业干旱风险评估模型〔J〕.农业工程学报,2009,25(9):51-55.〔Chen Xiaonan,Duan Chunqing,Liu Changming,et al.Model of risk assessment for agricultural drought based on two-layer soil computing model〔J〕.Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2009,25(9):51-55.〕 〔8〕 Dai A.Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer Drought Severity Index during 1900-2008〔J〕.Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2011,116:D12 115. 〔9〕 Ledger M E,Brown L E,Edwards F K.Drought alters the structure and functioning of complex food webs〔J〕.Nature Climate Change,2013,3(3):223-227. 〔10〕Trnka M,Rötter R P,Ruizramos M,et al.Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change〔J〕.Nature Climate Change,2014,4(7):637-643. 〔11〕Wilhite D A.Drought as a natural hazard:Concepts and definitions〔J〕.Drought A Global Assessment,2000,1:3-18. 〔12〕Anwar M R,Liu D L,Macadam I,et al.Adapting agriculture to climate change:A review〔J〕.Theoretical & Applied Climatology,2013,113(1/2):225-245. 〔13〕Hou W,Chen Y,Li Y,et al.Climatic characteristic over China in 2013 〔J〕.Meteorological Monthly,2014,40:491-501. 〔14〕Mcmichael A J,Woodruff R E,Hales S.Climate change and human health:Present and future risks〔J〕.The Lancet,2006,367(9 513):859-869. 〔15〕Patz J A,Campbell-Lendrum D,Holloway T,et al.Impact of regional climate change on human health〔J〕.Nature,2005,438(7 066):310-317. 〔16〕Cook B I,Smerdon J E,Seager R,et al.Global warming and 21st,century drying〔J〕.Climate Dynamics,2014,43(9/10):2 607-2 627. 〔17〕Meque A,Abiodun B J.Simulating the link between ENSO and summer drought in Southern Africa using regional climate models〔J〕.Climate Dynamics,2015,44(7/8):1 881-1 900. 〔18〕Stocker T F,Qin D,Plattner G K,et al.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis〔C〕∥Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2014. 〔19〕Trenberth K E,Dai A,Schrier G V D,et al.Global warming and changes in drought〔J〕.Nature Climate Change,2014,4(1):17-22. 〔20〕Hoerling M,Eischeid J,Perlwitz J.Regional precipitation trends:Distinguishing natural variability from anthropogenic forcing〔J〕.Journal of Climate,2010,23(8):2 131-2 145. 〔21〕Chou C,Chiang J C H,Lan C W,et al.Increase in the range between wet and dry season precipitation〔J〕.Nature Geoscience,2013,6(4):263-267. 〔22〕Tang Q,Zhang X,Francis J A.Extreme summer weather in northern mid-latitudes linked to a vanishing cryosphere〔J〕.Nature Climate Change,2014,4(1):45-50. 〔23〕Horton D E,Johnson N C,Singh D,et al.Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends〔J〕.Nature,2015,522(7 557):465-469. 〔24〕Meehl G A,Tebaldi C.More intense,more frequent,and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century〔J〕.Science,2004,305(5 686):994-997. 〔25〕卫捷,陶诗言,张庆云.Palmer 干旱指数在华北干旱分析中的应用〔J〕.地理学报,2003,58(增刊1):91-99.〔Wei Jie,Tao Shiyan,Zhang Qingyun.Analysis of drought in Northern China based on the palmer severity drought index 〔J〕.Acta Geographica Sinica,2003,58(Suppl.1):91-99.〕 〔26〕Sun Y,Zhang X,Zwiers F W,et al.Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China〔J〕.Nature Climate Change,2014,4(12):1 082-1 085. 〔27〕Chen H,Sun J.Changes in drought characteristics over China using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index〔J〕.Journal of Climate,2015,28(13):5 430-5 447. 〔28〕陈曦.亚洲中部干旱区蒸散发研究〔M〕.北京:气象出版社,2012.〔Chen Xi.Retrieval and Analysis of Evapotranspiration in Central Areas of Asia〔M〕.Beijing:Meteorogical Press,2012.〕 〔29〕Chen Xi,Zhou Qiming.Ecological and Environmental Remote Sensing in Arid Zone:A Case Study of Central Asia〔M〕.Beijing: Science Press,2015. 〔30〕Hu Z,Zhou Q,Chen X,et al.Variations and changes of annual precipitation in Central Asia over the last century〔J〕.International Journal of Climatology,2017,37(Suppl.1):157-170. 〔31〕Hu Z,Zhang C,Hu Q,et al.Temperature changes in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011 based on multiple datasets〔J〕.Journal of Climate,2013,27(3):1 143-1 167. 〔32〕Shi Y,Shen Y,Kang E,et al.Recent and future climate change in Northwest China〔J〕.Climatic Change,2007,80(3/4):379-393. 〔33〕Balashova Y,Zhitomirskaya O,Semyonova O.Climatologic Characterization of the Central Asian Republics〔M〕.Leningrad:Hydrometeorological Publishing,1960. 〔34〕胡汝骥.中国天山自然地理〔M〕.北京:中国环境科学出版社,2004.〔Hu Ruji.Physical Geography of the Tianshan Mountains in China〔M〕.Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,2004.〕 〔35〕Begdullayeva T,Kienzler K M,Kan E,et al.Response of Sorghum bicolor,varieties to soil salinity for feed and food production in Karakalpakstan,Uzbekistan〔J〕.Irrigation and Drainage Systems,2007,21(3/4):237-250. 〔36〕Dai A,Trenberth K E,Qian T.A global data set of palmer drought severity Index for 1870-2002:Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming〔J〕.Journal of Hydrometeorology,2004,5(6):1 117-1 130. 〔37〕Trnka M,Balek J,ěpánek Petr,et al.Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and 2014〔J〕.Climate Research,2016,70(2/3):143-160. 〔38〕Dai A.Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models〔J〕.Nature Climate Change,2013,3(1):52-58. 〔39〕Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change.Climate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis:Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate〔M〕.Cambridge :Cambridge University Press,2014. 〔40〕Wu Z,Huang N.Ensemble empirical mode decomposition:A noise-assisted data analysis method 〔J〕.Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis,2009,1(1):1-41. 〔41〕Xie Y,Huang J,Liu Y.From accelerated warming to warming hiatus in China〔J〕.International Journal of Climatology,2016,37(4) :1 758-1 773. 〔42〕Wu Z,Huang N E.A study of the characteristics of white noise using the empirical mode decomposition method〔J〕.Proceedings Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences,2004,460(2 046):1 597-1 611. 〔43〕Lorenz E N.Statistical forecasting program:Empirical orthogonal functions and statistical weather prediction〔J〕.Scientific Report,1956,409(2):997-999. 〔44〕North G R,Bell T L,Cahalan R F,et al.Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions〔J〕.Monthly Weather Review,1982,110(7):699-706. 〔45〕Allan R P,Soden B J,John V O,et al.Current changes in tropical precipitation〔J〕.Environmental Research Letters,2010,5(2):302-307. 〔46〕Greve P,Orlowsky B,Mueller B,et al.Corrigendum:Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land〔J〕.Nature Geoscience,2014,7(10):716-721. 〔47〕Feng H,Zhang M.Global land moisture trends:Drier in dry and wetter in wet over land〔J〕.Scientific Reports,2015,5(12):18 018. 〔48〕Zhang J,Sun F,Xu J,et al.Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China (1961-2013) on potential evaporation model〔J〕.Geophysical Research Letters,2016,43(1):206-213. 〔49〕Sheffield J,Wood E F,Roderick M L.Little change in global drought over the past 60 years〔J〕.Nature,2012,491(7 424):435-438. |