博斯腾湖流域干旱变化趋势及气候影响因素

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2019.05.06

Abstract

Abstract: Aridity index (AI) is one of the important indices for characterizing a regional aridity/humidity status.It played an important role in developing the local agriculture and improving water resources management and ecological environment.Based on the meteorological data from five meteorological stations from 1970 to 2016 in the Bosten Lake Basin,the Penman-Monteith formula was used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration (ET₀),and then the values of aridity index were calculated via ET₀/precipitation.The multi-annual change characteristics of the aridity index were analyzed using the moving average,M-K,R/S analysis,etc.The sensibility of meteorological factors to aridity index was analyzed by sensibility analysis.The results showed that the average aridity index of the Bosten Lake Basin was 13.9,which revealed that the study area was arid.The aridity index of the Bostten Lake Basin during the period from 1970 to 2016 was decreased,and its change trend in the future would be similar as that in history.Seasonally,the aridity index of the Bosten Lake Basin was the lowest in winter,and it would be continuously decreased with the time.The sensitivity of meteorological factors to the aridity index was in an order of maximum temperature>relative humidity>average wind speed>minimum temperature>sunshine duration>average temperature.

Key words: Bosten Lake Basin, aridity index, sensitive coefficient

WANG Yuan, JIAO Li, DONG Yu. Drought Change Trend and Its Affecting Climatic Factors in the Bosten Lake Basin[J].Arid Zone Research, 2019, 36(5): 1102-1108.

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Drought Change Trend and Its Affecting Climatic Factors in the Bosten Lake Basin

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