气候变化对柴达木盆地植被绿度的影响及趋势预估

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.07.09

Abstract

Abstract:

Exploring the quantitative pre assessment of the climate impact of vegetation greenness changes in the Qaidam Basin can help promote the integrated protection and systematic management of mountains, waters, forests, fields, lakes, grasses, sands, and gases. This article is based on MODIS NDVI data, meteorological data, and climate change prediction datasets. It monitors the changes in vegetation greenness with NDVI ≤ 0.3 in the Qaidam Basin from 2000 to 2023, analyzes the climate driving factors of vegetation with different greenness, and predicts the future trends of vegetation changes with different greenness. The results showed that in the past 24 years, vegetation types Ⅰ, Ⅱ, and Ⅲ in the Qaidam Basin accounted for 49.33%, 19.81%, and 30.86% of low green vegetation, respectively. Among them, the vegetation areas of S_sum, S_Ⅰ, and S_Ⅱ decreased significantly (P<0.001), while the vegetation area of S_Ⅲ increased significantly, indicating a clear improvement in vegetation quality; The cumulative effect of water and heat conditions on precipitation of low green vegetation for 2-3 years and temperature for 5 years is significantly (P<0.01) greater than that of the current year, indicating that a warm and humid climate promotes the healthy development of grasslands; Under the three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 in the future, the overall trend of low green vegetation in the Qaidam Basin is decreasing, and future climate conditions are favorable for vegetation restoration and expansion. The research results can provide scientific basis for the development of ecological environment protection and desertification control measures in the Qaidam Basin.

Key words: climate change, vegetation greenness, climate simulation model, trend estimation, Qaidam Basin

YAN Yingcun, SUN Shujiao, YU Di, GAO Guisheng. Impact and trend estimation of climate change on vegetation greenness in the Qaidam Basin[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(7): 1257-1268.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Tab. 3

Climate simulation model for low green vegetation area in the Qaidam Basin"

序号	模拟模型	R	F	Sig
1	$S s u m = 23.9823 - 0.0305 R 3 a$	0.829	41.730	0.0000
2	$S Ⅲ = 0.888 + 0.0096 R 3 a + 0.9222 T 3 a$	0.775	13.544	0.0003
3	$S Ⅱ = 5.6821 - 0.0141 R 3 a$	0.924	110.846	0.0000
4	$S Ⅰ = 13.3427 - 0.0279 R 3 a$	0.760	25.988	0.0000

Tab. 3

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Tab. 4

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等级	植被绿度	植被NDVI	面积/km²	R	G	B
Ⅰ级	褐	<0.08	S_Ⅰ	115	0	0
Ⅱ级	橙	0.08~0.12	S_Ⅱ	230	152	0
Ⅲ级	黄	0.13~0.3	S_Ⅲ	255	255	115
Ⅳ级	绿	>0.3		152	230	0

站点	平均降水/mm	降水倾向率 /[mm·(10a)^-1]	相关系数	站点	平均气温/℃	气温倾向率 /[℃·(10a)^-1]	相关系数
茫崖	48.1	1.31	0.04	茫崖	4.4	0.08	0.13
冷湖	19.1	1.45	0.12	冷湖	3.6	0.14	0.2
小灶火	31.6	5.07	0.19	小灶火	5.1	0.06	0.11
大柴旦	101.7	-1.48	-0.03	大柴旦	3.2	0.22	0.34
格尔木	47.6	5.81	0.22	格尔木	6.5	0.11	0.21
诺木洪	53	0.79	0.02	诺木洪	6	0.23	0.41^*
德令哈	238.4	17.09	0.18	德令哈	4.9	0.01	0.01
乌兰	222.9	28.12	0.36^*	乌兰	4.3	0.17	0.32
都兰	246.3	13.41	0.16	都兰	3.9	0.08	0.14
平均	112.1	7.95	0.21	平均	4.7	0.12	0.23

时段	S_Ⅲ植被面积与1986—2005年基准值比			S_Ⅲ植被面积与2000—2020年实测值比
时段	RCP2.6	RCP4.5	RCP8.5	RCP2.6	RCP4.5	RCP8.5
2021—2040年	5.119	9.723	11.224	4.501	8.549	9.870
2041—2070年	0.681	5.138	11.701	0.599	4.518	10.289
2071—2100年	-1.288	0.842	13.703	-1.133	0.740	12.049
时段	S_Ⅰ植被面积与1986—2005年基准值比			S_Ⅰ植被面积与2000—2020年实测值比
时段	RCP2.6	RCP4.5	RCP8.5	RCP2.6	RCP4.5	RCP8.5
2021—2040年	-0.664	-3.891	-3.289	-0.696	-4.040	-3.448
2041—2070年	-1.723	-1.241	-1.817	-1.805	-1.289	-1.904
2071—2100年	0.699	-0.052	-3.387	0.733	-0.054	-3.550
时段	S_Ⅱ植被面积与1986—2005年基准值比			S_Ⅱ植被面积与2000—2020年实测值比
时段	RCP2.6	RCP4.5	RCP8.5	RCP2.6	RCP4.5	RCP8.5
2021—2040年	-0.826	-4.852	-4.092	-0.876	-5.087	-4.341
2041—2070年	-2.143	-1.548	-2.261	-2.273	-1.623	-2.398
2071—2100年	0.870	-0.065	-4.214	0.923	-0.068	-4.469
时段	S_sum植被面积与1986—2005年基准值比			S_sum植被面积与2000—2020年实测值比
时段	RCP2.6	RCP4.5	RCP8.5	RCP2.6	RCP4.5	RCP8.5
2021—2040年	-0.368	-2.149	-1.824	-0.378	-2.193	-1.872
2041—2070年	-0.955	-0.686	-1.008	-0.980	-0.700	-1.034
2071—2100年	0.388	-0.029	-1.878	0.398	-0.029	-1.927

Impact and trend estimation of climate change on vegetation greenness in the Qaidam Basin

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