近40 a内蒙古冬旱时空演变特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.03.04

Abstract

Abstract:

Winter drought is a main factor hindering winter livestock production in Inner Mongolia. Thus, quantitative characterization of its spatiotemporal changes and development patterns is of great significance for disaster prevention and reduction and for ensuring the healthy development of agriculture and animal husbandry. Using ERA5-Land reanalysis meteorological data from the winter of 1980 to 2021 (October to March of the following year), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated at monthly and semi-annual scales. Trend analysis, spatiotemporal hotspot analysis, and other methods were used to analyze the winter drought evolution characteristics of the entire Inner Mongolia region and the five main vegetation types. Results show that in the past 40 years, the overall SPEI in Inner Mongolia has shown an increasing trend in winter, and aridification varies among different vegetation and months, with a few vegetation and months tending toward humidification. The change patterns in Inner Mongolia mainly include three types: oscillating hot spots, oscillating cold spots, and undetected patterns. From a seasonal perspective, hotspots are primarily distributed in most areas of western Inner Mongolia, as well as in Xing’an League and Tongliao City in the east. On a monthly scale, hotspots often appear in the central and western regions of Inner Mongolia. With regard to drought frequency and frequency statistics, mild drought events have the highest frequency, whereas winter drought events occur more frequently and seriously in desert grasslands and neighboring desert areas.

Key words: winter drought in Inner Mongolia, spatio-temporal evolution, SPEI index, emerging spatio-temporal hotspot analysis

TAO Jifeng, BAO Yulong, GUO Enliang, Jin Eerdemutu, Husile , BAO Yuhai. Characteristics of the spatial and temporal evolution of winter drought in Inner Mongolia over the past 40 years[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(3): 387-398.

Figures/Tables 11

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等级	SPEI	类型
1	-0.5<SPEI	无旱
2	-1.0<SPEI≤-0.5	轻旱
3	-1.5<SPEI≤-1.0	中旱
4	-2.0<SPEI≤-1.5	重旱
5	SPEI≤-2.0	特旱

类型		时间尺度
类型		季	10月	11月	12月	1月	2月	3月
整体区域	变化趋势	-0.0200	-0.0052	-0.0060	-0.0125	-0.0115	-0.0101	-0.0247
整体区域	R²	0.2032^**	0.0012	0.0002	0.0682	0.0761	0.059	0.3122^**
森林	变化趋势	-0.0176	-0.0061	-0.0163	-0.0115	-0.0146	0.0061	-0.0136
森林	R²	0.0807	0.0099	0.0744	0.0319	0.0505	0.0107	0.0496
草甸草原	变化趋势	-0.0178	-0.0070	-0.0078	-0.0116	-0.0142	-0.0034	-0.0187
草甸草原	R²	0.1113^*	0.016	0.025	0.0443	0.0737	0.0045	0.1483^*
典型草原	变化趋势	-0.0182	-0.0073	0.0013	-0.0121	-0.0139	-0.0128	-0.0262
典型草原	R²	0.1122^*	0.0177	0.0005	0.053	0.0761	0.0641	0.2473^**
荒漠草原	变化趋势	-0.0245	-0.0045	0.0057	-0.0156	-0.0098	-0.0143	-0.0315
荒漠草原	R²	0.1628^**	0.0049	0.0078	0.0648	0.0247	0.0569	0.2389^**
戈壁荒漠	变化趋势	-0.0245	0.0012	0.0079	-0.0125	-0.0031	-0.0190	-0.0293
戈壁荒漠	R²	0.1223^*	0.0003	0.0114	0.0334	0.0022	0.1074^*	0.1706^**

Characteristics of the spatial and temporal evolution of winter drought in Inner Mongolia over the past 40 years

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