疏勒河上游径流变化与预测分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.05.23

Abstract

Abstract:

A quantitative analysis of runoff variation characteristics is the basis for finding out its impact mechanism, and it is also an important basis for accurately evaluating water resources. This study used eight annual distribution indexes, such as the Gini coefficient and Lorentz asymmetry coefficient, combined with the M-K test、R/S analysis, and other mathematical statistics methods, to comprehensively analyze the process of the runoff of the upper reaches of the Shule River from the annual and interannual levels. The results showed that the following: (1) during the year, a unimodal distribution was shown, which was mainly concentrated in the flood season concentration degree (D), inhomogeneous coefficient (C_v), Gini coefficient (GI), relative change range (C_m) decreased respectively at the rate of -1.053·(10a)^-1, -0.015·(10a)^-1, -0.009·(10a)^-1,-0.643·(10a)^-1, complete adjustment coefficient (C_r), Lorentz asymmetry coefficient (S), concentration period (C_n) all decreased at the rate of -0.006·(10a)^-1. The distribution tended to be uniform gradually according to the changing trend of its characteristic index during the year. (2) The annual runoff showed an overall increasing trend, but an abrupt change occurred in 1997, and the average annual runoff afterward increased by 59% compared before the change. (3) The runoff generally showed an upward trend in all four seasons, among which the trend rate was the greatest in the summer and the smallest in the winter. After the abrupt change in the 1990s, the average runoff increased significantly compared to before the abrupt change, and the change range was in the following order: autumn (76%) > winter (74%) > summer (58%) > spring (45%). (4) The annual and seasonal runoff in the upper reaches of the Shule River had multiple time characteristic scale periods, and the first major cycle were both 56 years. (5) According to the predicted runoff from 2022 to 2024, it was found that the runoff of the upper reaches of the Shule River will continue to increase in the next three years. These results provided a scientific basis for accurately grasping the runoff variation laws and characteristics of the upper reaches of the Shule River and had certain guiding significance for the sustainable development and utilization of water resources in the Shule River Basin and the study of the runoff variation laws in inland river basins.

Key words: runoff seasonal distribution, inter-annual variation, runoff forecast, upper reaches of the Shule River

JIA Ling,ZHANG Baizu,NIU Zuirong,SUN Dongyuan,SUN Kaiyue,WNAG Lujun. Analysis of runoff variation and forecast in the upper reaches of the Shule River[J].Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(5): 1588-1597.

Figures/Tables 13

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时段	径流量 /10⁸m³	春季（3—5月）		夏季（6—8月）		秋季（9—11月）		冬季（12月—次年2月）
时段	径流量 /10⁸m³	径流量 /10⁸m³	百分比 /%	径流量 /10⁸m³	百分比 /%	径流量 /10⁸m³	百分比 /%	径流量 /10⁸m³	百分比 /%
1950s	7.37	0.84	11.41	4.63	62.91	1.36	18.43	0.53	7.25
1960s	8.03	1.24	15.48	4.79	59.60	1.41	17.60	0.59	7.32
1970s	8.92	1.27	14.22	5.23	58.61	1.71	19.14	0.72	8.04
1980s	9.22	1.38	15.00	5.41	58.68	1.66	18.02	0.76	8.29
1990s	8.92	1.23	13.83	5.27	59.08	1.68	18.83	0.74	8.26
2000s	12.72	1.80	14.14	7.19	56.50	2.59	20.39	1.14	8.97
2010s	14.87	1.78	11.94	8.84	59.47	3.00	20.18	1.25	8.41
多年平均值	10.28	1.42	13.82	6.03	58.64	1.98	19.26	0.85	8.28

统计值	C_v	C_r	C_n	D	GI	S	C_m	ΔR
倾向率/（10a）^-1	-0.015	-0.006	-0.006	-1.053	-0.009	-0.006	-0.643	0.255
最大值	1.27	0.66	0.66	276.48	0.49	1.09	32.20	5.66
最大值出现年份	1976	1976	1958	1987	1991	1975	1958	2016
最小值	0.68	0.26	0.39	181.23	0.29	0.72	6.81	0.70
最小值出现年份	1973	1984	2003	1969	2020	2019	1973	1956
平均值	0.93	0.36	0.52	197.42	0.39	0.84	12.16	2.54

1956—2020年径流序列		年	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
持续性分析	Hurst指数	0.8279	0.8127	0.7353	0.8155	0.9422
持续性分析	拟合R²	0.8252	0.9690	0.6802	0.8846	0.9738
突变性分析	突变年份	1997	1999	1998	1997	1999

1956—2020年径流序列	统计特征		趋势检验			突变点前		突变点后
1956—2020年径流序列	均值 /10⁸m³	变差系数	倾向率	M-K检验值	显著性	均值 /10⁸m³	变差系数	均值 /10⁸m³	变差系数
年	10.28	0.31	1.21	6.0633	是	8.50	0.21	13.54	0.18
春季	1.42	0.26	0.14	5.8482	是	1.24	0.18	1.80	0.20
夏季	6.03	0.34	0.66	5.0386	是	5.04	0.27	7.96	0.22
秋季	1.98	0.40	0.29	5.7463	是	1.56	0.28	2.75	0.25
冬季	0.85	0.33	0.13	7.6825	是	0.69	0.18	1.20	0.14

1956—2020年径流序列	第一主周期	第二主周期	第三主周期
年	56 a	28 a	10 a
春季	56 a	28 a	20 a
夏季	56 a	28 a	9 a
秋季	56 a	13 a	-
冬季	56 a	-	-

Analysis of runoff variation and forecast in the upper reaches of the Shule River

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年份	实测值 /10⁸m³	灰色预测模型		R/S灰色预测模型		ARIMA模型		综合预测值 /10⁸m³	综合相对误差/%
年份	实测值 /10⁸m³	预测值 /10⁸m³	相对误差 /%	预测值 /10⁸m³	相对误差 /%	预测值 /10⁸m³	相对误差 /%	综合预测值 /10⁸m³	综合相对误差/%
2019	16.91	13.92	-17.69	16.28	-3.69	15.73	-6.96	15.31	-9.46
2020	12.25	14.04	14.59	16.81	37.23	15.88	29.61	15.58	27.18
2021	14.03	14.16	0.89	17.06	21.57	16.02	14.16	15.75	12.26
2022		14.33		16.89		15.26		15.49
2023		14.45		16.74		15.39		15.53
2024		14.57		16.94		15.51		15.67
平均相对误差/%			11.06		20.83		16.91		16.30

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