水资源-社会经济-生态环境耦合协调度关系研究及预测——以黄河流域内蒙古段为例

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.04.10

Abstract

Abstract:

With rapid socioeconomic development, competition between human activities and the natural environment has intensified significantly, making the balance between socioeconomic development and environmental protection critical. This study constructs a coupling coordination model for a water resources-socioeconomic-ecological environment system to assess the coordination status of the Inner Mongolia section in the Yellow River Basin from 1998 to 2022. Additionally, an improved LSTM model is employed to predict the development trends over the next five years under four integrated regulation scenarios. The results indicate that: (1) The evaluation indices of the water resources, socioeconomic, and ecological environment subsystems across cities in the Yellow River Basin are 0.47-0.57, 0.47-0.87, and 0.42-0.58, respectively, reflecting moderate overall coordination level in the water resources and ecological environment subsystems, whereas the socioeconomic subsystem exhibits relatively higher values but still has room for improvement. (2) The coupling coordination degree of the system in each city shows a gradual upward trend (0.67-0.80), with an overall increase of 19%. (3) Future scenario predictions reveal that joint regulation of water resources and socioeconomic factors leads to the most significant improvements in Alxa, Bayannur, and Ulanqab, whereas joint regulation of socioeconomic and ecological environment factors yields the greatest improvements in Wuhai. Meanwhile, joint regulation of water resources and the ecological environment proves most effective in Baotou, Hohhot, and Ordos.

Key words: coupling coordination degree, spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, improved LSTM, the Inner Mongolia section in the Yellow River Basin

MENG Qingshuai, GONG Yu, LIU Xiaoyan, TONG Xin, WANG Dongmin, XIE Guoying, LIU Tingxi. Research and prediction of the degree of coupling coordination of water resources, socioeconomic development, and the ecological environment: A case of the Inner Mongolia section in the Yellow River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(4): 682-694.

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准则层	指标层
准则层	序号	名称	指标计算	单位
水资源指标	1	水资源人均占有量	水资源量/区域年人口数	m³∙人^-1
	2	水资源模数	水资源量/区域总面积	10⁵m³∙km^-2
	3	产水系数	水资源总量/年降雨总量	无量纲
	4	总用水量	区域年耗水资源量	10⁸m³
	5	年平均降雨量	历年降雨量之和/年数	mm
	6	年平均蒸发量	历年蒸发量之和/年数	mm
社会经济指标	7	农业用水占比	农业用水量/总用水量×100%	%
	8	工业用水占比	工业用水量/总用水量×100%	%
	9	生活用水占比	生活用水量/总用水量×100%	%
	10	城镇居民人均可支配收入	城镇可支配收入/城镇人口总数	元∙人^-1
	11	农村居民人均可支配收入	农村可支配收入/农村人口总数	元∙人^-1
	12	城镇化率	在城镇居住半年以上人口/总人口数×100%	%
	13	人口密度	人口总数/土地面积	人∙km^-2
	14	一产占比	第一产业产值/地区总GDP	%
	15	二产占比	第二产业产值/地区总GDP	%
	16	三产占比	第三产业产值/地区总GDP	%
	17	工业产值模数	工业产值/土地面积	%
	18	人均GDP	GDP/总人口	元∙人^-1
生态环境指标	19	污水处理率	区域污水处理比例	%
	20	生态用水比例	生态环境用水量/总用水量	%
	21	植被覆盖率	有植被覆盖面积/总面积	%
	22	工业二氧化硫排放量	工业生产中SO₂排放量	t∙a^-1
	23	工业废水排放量	工业生产中废水排放量	t∙a^-1

指标	I₁	I₂	I₃	I₄	I₅	I₆	I₇	I₈
真实值	210.3	4.40	0.14	10.73	256.63	1875.26	62.78	9.50
预测值	268.6	4.86	0.12	10.48	274.00	1931.00	62.52	7.43
指标	I₉	I₁₀	I₁₁	I₁₂	I₁₃	I₁₄	I₁₅	I₁₆
真实值	20.03	57085	25518	80.7	207	4.4	35.2	60.4
预测值	19.85	59137	24836	79.8	205	4.05	31.72	64.23
指标	I₁₇	I₁₈	I₁₉	I₂₀	I₂₁	I₂₂	I₂₃
真实值	545.77	106337	97.60	7.69	46.77	11535	2191
预测值	580.14	98668	98.45	10.20	48.23	15389	2280

Research and prediction of the degree of coupling coordination of water resources, socioeconomic development, and the ecological environment: A case of the Inner Mongolia section in the Yellow River Basin

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