喀喇昆仑山克亚吉尔冰川阻塞湖突发洪水警戒面积研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.04.05

Abstract

Abstract:

The periodic outburst floods from the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake pose a severe threat to downstream areas. In the context of global warming, research on monitoring and early warning for the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake is particularly important. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the alert area for the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake outburst floods. The area changes and sudden drainage events of the lake were first analyzed using multi-source optical remote sensing data from 1990-2023. Then, the critical minimum drainage volume of the lake was calculated using an area-volume empirical formula and historical flood data. At the same time, the rationality of the alert area was verified through the relationship between the drainage volume and the net flood peak discharge established in this study. The results showed that the lake experienced 20 sudden drainage events over the past 34 years, 17 of which led to glacial lake outburst floods. The periods 1996-2009 and 2015-2019 were unstable, with repeated lake filling and draining. The alert area for the outburst floods of the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake is 1.046 km², and the alert net flood peak discharge resulting from the sudden drainage is 418 m³·s^-1. Although the lake area shows a decreasing trend, the risk of flood disasters triggered by the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake outburst floods does not necessarily decrease. The lake outburst flood, when superimposed on high basic runoff, can still threaten downstream areas. When the lake area approaches its alert area, it is necessary to monitor its changes closely and implement early warning measures in combination with the basic runoff at the hydrological station. The proposed alert lake area and its determination method may provide scientific support for early warning monitoring of the outburst flood of the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake and offer guidance for early warning of flood disasters in the Yarkand River Basin.

Key words: glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF), early warning, area change, Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake, Karakoram Mountains

LUO Xi, Alimujiang KASIMU, LIU Ying, BAO Anming, YUAN Ye, YU Tao. Research on the alert area of Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake outburst floods in the Karakoram Mountains[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(4): 622-636.

Figures/Tables 12

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年份	数据集/传感器	影像日期/年-月-日	分辨率/m	年份	数据集/传感器	影像日期/年-月-日	分辨率/m
1990年	Landsat-5 TM	1990-03-09	30	2008年	Landsat-5 TM	2008-06-14	30
1991年	Landsat-5 TM	1991-07-02	30	2009年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2009-07-27	30
1992年	Landsat-5 TM	1992-07-29	30	2009年	Landsat-5 TM	2009-07-28	30
1993年	Landsat-5 TM	1993-07-07	30	2010年	Landsat-5 TM	2010-08-23	30
1994年	Landsat-5 TM	1994-08-27	30	2011年	Landsat-5 TM	2011-08-10	30
1995年	Landsat-5 TM	1995-01-18	30	2012年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2012-08-20	30
1996年	Landsat-5 TM	1996-09-01	30	2013年	Landsat-8 OLI	2013-07-30	30
1997年	Landsat-5 TM	1997-07-18	30	2014年	Landsat-8 OLI	2014-07-01	30
1998年	Landsat-5 TM	1998-10-09	30	2015年	GF-1 WFV2	2015-07-24	16
	Landsat-5 TM	1998-10-25	30	2016年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2016-07-14	30
	Landsat-5 TM	1998-11-03	30		Landsat-7 EMT+	2016-07-30	30
1999年	Landsat-7 EMT+	1999-07-09	30		HJ1A CCD1	2016-08-02	30
2000年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2000-06-25	30		HJ1A CCD1	2016-08-10	30
2000年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2000-07-27	30	2017年	Landsat-8 OLI	2017-08-10	30
2001年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2001-07-05	30	2017年	Sentinel-2A/B MSI	2017-08-31	10
2002年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2002-08-09	30	2018年	Sentinel-2A/B MSI	2018-08-06	10
2003年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2003-08-12	30	2019年	GF-6 WFV	2019-07-25	16
2004年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2004-09-15	30	2020年	Sentinel-2A/B MSI	2020-06-06	10
2005年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2005-08-26	30	2021年	Sentinel-2A/B MSI	2021-07-16	10
2006年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2006-07-19	30	2022年	Sentinel-2A/B MSI	2022-06-26	10
2007年	Landsat-7 EMT+	2007-06-20	30	2023年	Sentinel-2A/B MSI	2023-08-30	10

序号	年份	水文站	洪峰流量/（m³·s^-1）	基本流量/（m³·s^-1）	净洪峰流量/（m³·s^-1）	发生日期/月-日	文献来源
1	1997年	卡群站	4040	1033	3007	08-03	[33]
2	1998年	卡群站	1850	88	1762	11-05	[33]
3	1999年	卡群站	6070	1113	4967	08-11	[33]
4	2001年	卡群站	1630	1026	604	07-08	[33]
5	2002年	卡群站	4610	1420	3190	08-13	[33]
6	2003年	卡群站	1860	377	1483	08-26	[33]
7	2004年	卡群站	1360	253	1107	09-20	[33]
8	2005年	卡群站	1640	396	1244	09-02	[33]
9	2006年	卡群站	3510	1768	1742	08-02	[33]
10	2007年	卡群站	1300	654	646	07-16	[33]
11	2009年	卡群站	1680	595	1085	07-30	[33]
12	2015年	库鲁克栏杆站	2230	1500	730	07-28	[17]
13	2016年	库鲁克栏杆站	1930	798	1132	07-17	[17]
14	2016年	库鲁克栏杆站	2120	900	1220	08-11	[17]
15	2017年	库鲁克栏杆站	2753	-	-	08-11	[16]
16	2018年	卡群站	1330	-	-	08-10	[32]
17	2019年	卡群站	1290	-	-	07-31	[32]

日期/年-月-日	湖泊面积/km²	未完全排水剩余湖泊面积/km²	排水体积 /10⁶ m³	净洪峰流量估算值 /（m³·s^-1）	净洪峰流量观测值 /（m³·s^-1）	相对误差/%
2015-07-28	1.72		50.61	958	569	68.39
2016-07-17	1.69	0.51	39.54	701	876	-20.00
2016-08-11	1.37		36.6	635	948	-33.04
2018-08-10	2.15	0.51	60.17	1193	316~716	-
2019-07-31	1.14	0.18	26.33	418	217~617	-
2000-06-25	0.82		18.2	262	-	-
2008-06-14	0.90		20.62	307	-	-
2017-08-10	2.64	0.92	73.8	1546	-	-
2017-08-31	1.33	0.65	21.75	328	-	-

Research on the alert area of Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake outburst floods in the Karakoram Mountains

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