关川河上游水沙变化特征及其对降水和水保措施的响应

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.11.06

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to further explore the influence of precipitation and soil and water conservation measures on runoff sediment, and to gain an in-depth understanding of the driving factors of water and sand changes in small and medium-sized rivers of the Yellow River, M-K test, Morlet wavelet, linear regression and structural equation modeling were used to study the changes in precipitation and the area of soil and water conservation measures in the upper Guanchuan River from 1957-2021, as well as their the mechanism and process of action were studied. The results showed that annual precipitation showed a non-significant decreasing trend (P >0.05), runoff modulus and sand transport modulus showed a significant decreasing trend (P<0.05), and the area of soil and water conservation measures showed an increasing trend. The response of runoff modulus and sand transport modulus to precipitation got weakened, and the response to soil and water conservation measures was gradually strengthened; the key path of precipitation and soil and water conservation measures affecting the change of water and sand was “area of soil and water conservation measures→runoff modulus”, followed by “area of soil and water conservation measures→runoff→sand transport modulus”, then “precipitation→runoff modulus”, and finally “precipitation→runoff modulus→sand transport modulus”. The total effect of precipitation on water and sand change is 0.42 and 0.38 respectively, while the total effect of soil and water conservation measures on water and sand change is -0.72 and -0.65 respectively. The main factor affecting water and sand change in the watershed is the area of soil and water conservation measures, and the secondary factor is the amount of precipitation.

Key words: changes in water and sediment, soil and water conservation measures, structural equation model, upper Guanchuan River

WANG Xiaoyu, MA Rui, ZHANG Fu, HU Yanting, WANG Lingli, JIANG Chengyang, CHEN Su’e. Characteristics of water and sand changes in the upper Guanchuan River and its response to precipitation and water conservation measures[J].Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(11): 1765-1775.

Figures/Tables 13

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

The correlation between annual precipitation and runoff modulus and sediment transport modulus at different time periods"

相关关系	时段（年份）	模型	R	R²	F	Sig.
降水量（x₁）-径流模数（y₁）	Ⅰ（1957—1980年）	$y 1 = 64.69 x 1 - 7885.79$	0.703	0.471	21.479	0.000^**
	Ⅱ（1981—2000年）	$y 1 = 46.03 x 1 - 8798.39$	0.674	0.454	14.976	0.001^**
	Ⅲ（2001—2021年）	$y 1 = 2.13 x 1 + 1306.18$	0.108	0.012	0.224	0.641
降水量（x₂）-输沙模数（y₂）	Ⅰ（1957—1980年）	$y 2 = 14.59 x 2 - 1625.89$	0.549	0.302	9.511	0.005^**
	Ⅱ（1981—2000年）	$y 2 = 12.59 x 2 - 2374.10$	0.596	0.356	9.933	0.006^**
	Ⅲ（2001—2021年）	$y 2 = 1.16 x 2 - 204.98$	0.296	0.088	1.825	0.193
径流模数（y₁）-输沙模数（y₂）	Ⅰ（1957—1980年）	$y 2 = 0.25 y 1 - 405.99$	0.881	0.775	75.951	0.000^**
	Ⅱ（1981—2000年）	$y 2 = 0.29 y 1 - 148.01$	0.941	0.885	138.919	0.000^**
	Ⅲ（2001—2021年）	$y 2 = 0.14 y 1 - 57.51$	0.718	0.515	20.165	0.000^**

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

The correlation between the amount of soil and water conservation measures and the runoff modulus and sediment transport modulus at different time periods"

相关关系	时段（年份）	模型	R	R²	F	Sig.
水土保持措施面积（x₂）-径流模数（y₁）	Ⅰ（1957—1980年）	$y 1 = - 27.95 x 2 + 21337.21$	0.202	0.041	0.939	0.343
	Ⅱ（1981—2000年）	$y 1 = - 10.29 x 2 + 15914.73$	0.398	0.158	3.385	0.082
	Ⅲ（2001—2021年）	$y 1 = - 7.40 x 2 + 10519.78$	0.673	0.454	15.771	0.001^**
水土保持措施面积（x₂）-输沙模数（y₂）	Ⅰ（1957—1980年）	$y 2 = - 6.38 x 2 + 4966.52$	0.160	0.026	0.579	0.455
	Ⅱ（1981—2000年）	$y 2 = - 1.445 x 2 + 3661.78$	0.181	0.033	0.067	0.446
	Ⅲ（2001—2021年）	$y 2 = - 1.57 x 2 - 2024.07$	0.717	0.514	20.059	0.000^**

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Fig. 7

Tab. 6

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特征值	Ⅰ（1957—1980年）	Ⅱ（1981—2000年）	Ⅲ（2001—2021年）
降水量/mm	424.1	418.5	389.9
径流模数/（m³·km^-2·a^-1）	19551.10	10465.21	2153.30
输沙模数/（t·km^-2·a^-1）	4558.80	2896.92	247.64

变量间的关系	路径系数	P
降水量→径流模数	0.417	0.000^***
水土保持措施面积→径流模数	-0.720	0.000^***
径流模数→输沙模数	0.993	0.000^***
降水量→输沙模数	-0.039	0.491
水土保持措施面积→输沙模数	0.062	0.402

Characteristics of water and sand changes in the upper Guanchuan River and its response to precipitation and water conservation measures

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自变量		因变量
自变量		径流模数	输沙模数
降水量	直接效应	0.42	-0.04
	间接效应	0	0.42
	总效应	0.42	0.38
水土保持措施面积	直接效应	-0.72	0.06
	间接效应	0	-0.71
	总效应	-0.72	-0.65

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