基于多变量时间序列模型的锡林郭勒草原参考作物蒸散量预测

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.06.16

Abstract

Abstract:

This study was performed to explore the influence of various meteorological factors on reference crop evapotranspiration and its prediction in Xilinguole grassland. The correlation between the meteorological data of six national ground meteorological stations in Xilinguole grassland of Inner Mongolia and the calculated PM-ET₀ was analyzed. A multivariate time series controlled autoregressive (CAR) model was used as a basis for establishing a CAR-ET₀ model in accordance with the order of correlation coefficient. Results showed that the correlation coefficient between meteorological factors and PM-ET₀ decreased from a desert steppe area to a typical steppe area and a meadow steppe area. The correlation of daily minimum temperature, average temperature, and PM-ET₀ was the smallest, whereas the correlation between average sunshine hours and PM-ET₀ was the largest, which was 0.7293. In meadow and desert steppes, the accuracy of CAR-ET₀ increased when sunshine and temperature were used as inputs. Wind speed was also required as the third factor of the model in a typical grassland area. The verification of model prediction accuracy revealed that the prediction accuracy of the CAR-ET₀ model was generally higher than that of HS-ET₀ and PMT-ET₀ models. Combined with correlation analysis, the meteorological factors with a significant impact on local reference crop evapotranspiration could be obtained. Thus, this study could provide a theoretical basis for designing a meteorological monitoring layout, determining reference crop evapotranspiration, and conducting ecological restoration in Xilinguole grassland.

Key words: reference crop evapotranspiration, grey correlation analysis, multivariable time series model, Xilingol grassland

FENG Zhuangzhuang,SHI Haibin,MIAO Qingfeng,LI Jiannan,SUN Wei,DAI Liping. Prediction of reference crop evapotranspiration in Xilinguole grassland based on multivariate time series model[J].Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(6): 1650-1658.

Figures/Tables 5

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References 34

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气象站点	生态地理分区	日最高气温/℃	日最低气温/℃	平均相对湿度/%	日照时数/h	平均风速/(m·s^-1)
阿巴嘎旗	典型草原区	9.252	-4.001	55.072	8.142	3.166
东乌珠穆沁	草甸草原区	9.257	-4.213	60.876	8.157	2.852
西乌珠穆	草甸草原区	8.928	-4.194	58.485	7.681	3.334
多伦	典型草原区	10.041	-3.308	59.663	8.038	3.172
二连浩特	荒漠草原区	12.229	-1.623	46.672	8.715	3.850
锡林浩特	典型草原区	10.295	-3.036	55.503	8.132	3.343

Prediction of reference crop evapotranspiration in Xilinguole grassland based on multivariate time series model

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