Arid Zone Research ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 997-1004.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2019.04.25

• Ecology and Environment • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Factors Affecting Carbon Emission from Energy Consumption in Tianjin

LI Xue-mei1,2, ZHANG Qing3   

  1. 1. College of Economics and Management,Tianjin Chengjian University,Tianjin 300384,China;
    2. Tianjin Center of Urbanization and New Rural Construction Research,Tianjin 300384,China;
    3. Anyang Jianye Construction Group Co,.Ltd,Zhengzhou 455000,Henan,China
  • Received:2018-09-03 Revised:2018-11-15 Published:2025-10-18

Abstract: The LMDI model was applied to analyze the factors affecting carbon emission from energy consumption in Tianjin from 2000 to 2016 based on the estimated carbon emission data.The results indicated that the carbon emission in Tianjin was significantly affected by the scale of economy and energy intensity,which played the promotion and inhibition of carbon emission respectively.On which the economic variables were classified into high,medium and low scenarios,and the emission reduction variables were divided into two modes of medium emission reduction and strong emission reduction.By means of the combination,6 development modes including the high economic growth with strong emission reduction and the medium economic growth with strong emission reduction were obtained.Based on the STIRPAT extended model,the trend of carbon emissions in Tianjin under the 6 combination modes was predicted.The results showed that the mode of medium economic growth with strong emission reduction was the best for maintaining the economic development in Tianjin,and the carbon emission peaks and their occurring years were optimized compared to those of other modes.

Key words: energy consumption, carbon emission, affecting factor, scenario mode, trend prediction, Tianjin