咸海流域降水时空特征及趋势分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.02.03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于CRU（Climate Research Unit）数据集1945—2019年咸海流域月降水序列,利用气候倾向率、集中度与分摊熵、样本熵与排列熵方法,分别分析了咸海流域年降水量变化、降水的年内分配、降水序列复杂性变化的时空特征,并用Mann-Kendall法检验了各方法所得结果的趋势性。结果表明：咸海流域年降水量总体基本保持不变,呈微弱的上升趋势,其中,流域西北部及中东部区域降水量呈显著上升的趋势;咸海流域降水集中于每年的3月左右,降水的年内分配有微弱的均匀化趋势,流域西部、北部及东部降水年内分配相对更均匀,流域中部及南部降水年内分配相对更集中;咸海流域西部、北部及东部降水序列的复杂性相对较高,中部及南部降水序列的复杂性相对较低,流域整体的降水序列的复杂性呈一定的上升趋势,其中,流域北部与南部降水序列的复杂性呈显著下降的趋势,流域西部、中部与东部降水序列的复杂性呈显著上升的趋势。

关键词: 咸海流域, 降水, 年际变化, 年内分配, 复杂性

Abstract:

In this study, we extracted regional precipitation data of the general Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) from 1945 to 2019. Simultaneously, we also calculated the spatial and temporal characteristics of annual precipitation change using the climate trend rate method. We first depicted the overall spatial distribution of the climate trend rate, then we used concentration period, concentration degree, and sharing entropy methods to describe the precipitation distribution, and separately depicted the spatial and temporal precipitation distribution. Additionally, we calculated the spatial and temporal change in precipitation complexity using the sample entropy and permutation entropy methods, and demonstrated these results graphically. Trends in the new series of concentration period, concentration degree, sharing entropy, sample entropy, and permutation entropy were tested using the Mann-Kendall method. Generally, the annual precipitation in the Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia remained largely unchanged, whereas precipitation showed a slight upward trend. From the perspective of spatial distribution, precipitation increased significantly in the northwest and central east of the Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia. Furthermore, precipitation was mainly concentrated in early and mid-February for each year. The general precipitation distribution showed a slightly homogenized trend, whereas the annual precipitation distribution was more uniform in the west, north, and east of the Aral Sea Basin, and more concentrated in the middle and south of the Aral Sea Basin. Moreover, the sample entropy and permutation entropy values were higher in the north, west, and east, but lower in the south and middle of the Aral Sea Basin. Altogether, the results demonstrate that the complexity of the precipitation series was relatively high in the north, west, and east, but relatively low in the south and middle of the Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia. The complexity of the precipitation series in the whole basin generally showed an upward trend. More specifically, the complexity of the precipitation series in the north and south of the basin showed a significant downward trend, whereas in the west, middle, and east of the basin, it showed a significant upward trend. Our results illustrate the variation in precipitation characteristics in this basin over the past 75 years, and provide a scientific basis for the development and utilization of water resources in the Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia.

Key words: the Aral Sea Basin, precipitation, inter-annual variability, intra-annual distribution, complexity

王浩轩,黄峰,郭利丹,钟瑞森. 咸海流域降水时空特征及趋势分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(2): 359-367.

WANG Haoxuan,HUANG Feng,GUO Lidan,ZHONG Ruisen. Analysis of tempo-spatial characteristics and trends of precipitation in the Aral Sea Basin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(2): 359-367.

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