新疆天山极端干湿事件时空演变特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.01.20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于新疆天山26个气象站1960—2017年的气象资料,采用FAO Penman-Monteith模型计算了各气象站月地表湿润指数,标准化后统计极端干湿事件频率。运用线性趋势分析法、反距离加权法探究了极端干湿事件频率的时空演变特征,并采用相关分析、偏相关分析及交叉小波分析分别探讨了气象因子和大气环流对极端干湿事件变化的影响。结果表明:（1）新疆天山极端干、湿事件分别呈减少、增加趋势,年际倾向率分别为-0.40次·(10a)^-1、0.37次·(10a)^-1。夏季为天山极端干、湿事件的共同高发季节,也是极端干旱下降趋势最大的季节,而秋季是极端湿润上升趋势最大的季节。（2）天山北坡是极端干旱事件和极端湿润事件的共同高发区域,极端干、湿事件发生频率高达4.44次·a^-1、2.76次·a^-1,也是极端干旱下降、极端湿润上升速率最快的区域,平均年际倾向率分别为-0.75次·(10a)^-1、0.58次·(10a)^-1。（3）平均相对湿度是导致该区域极端干湿事件变化的主要气象因子,厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation）是主要大气环流因素。

关键词: 天山, 极端干湿, 时空演变, 湿润指数, 气象因子, 大气环流

Abstract:

The FAO Penman-Monteith model was used to calculate the monthly surface humid index at 26 meteorological stations in the Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China, based on their meteorological data from 1960 to 2017. The extreme dry and wet event frequencies were calculated after standardizing the data. Subsequently, the Mann-Kendall trend analysis and inverse distance weighting methods were used to explore their spatio-temporal evolutionary characteristics. Pearson and partial correlation analyses and cross wavelet transform were used to investigate the influence of meteorological factors and atmospheric circulation on the extreme dry and wet events. The results showed that (1) the interannual decrease and increase in extreme dry and wet events were -0.40 and 0.37 times per decade, respectively. The highest occurrence of extreme dry and wet events and the largest decrease in extreme dry events occurred in summer, while the largest increase in extreme wet events was in autumn; (2) the northern slope exhibited the highest incidence of extreme dry and wet events, with a frequency of 4.36 and 2.76 times a year, respectively. It also exhibited the fastest rate of decline in extreme dry and increase in extreme wet events, with an average annual incidence of -0.75 and 0.58 times per decade, respectively; and (3) the average relative humidity was the primary meteorological factor influencing the changes in extreme dry and wet events in the region, and the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation was the main atmospheric circulation factor.

Key words: Tianshan Mountains, extreme drought/wet events, spatio-temporal evolution, humid index, meteorological factors, atmospheric circulation

曹丽君,孙慧兰,兰小丽,张乐乐,卢宝宝,刘天弋. 新疆天山极端干湿事件时空演变特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(1): 188-197.

CAO Lijun,SUN Huilan,LAN Xiaoli,ZHANG Lele,LU Baobao,LIU Tianyi. Spatio-temporal evolution of the extreme dry and wet events in Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(1): 188-197.

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年代	天山北坡		天山南坡		天山山区
年代	极端干旱	极端湿润	极端干旱	极端湿润	极端干旱	极端湿润
1960s	6.57	1.36	3.78	1.18	5.02	1.63
1970s	5.66	1.50	3.45	1.60	4.45	1.85
1980s	4.30	2.79	2.98	1.82	3.78	2.47
1990s	3.47	3.67	2.75	2.49	3.55	3.27
2000s	3.64	3.14	3.03	2.25	3.47	3.20
2010—2017年	2.66	4.25	2.77	2.13	2.81	3.81
1960—2017年	4.44	2.73	3.14	1.90	3.88	2.67

系数	平均气温	最高气温	最低气温	日照时数	平均风速	平均相对湿度
相关系数	-0.023^**	-0.025^**	-0.019^*	-0.034^**	-0.026^**	0.056^**
偏相关系数	0	-0.007	0.007	0	-0.006	0.041^**