泛中亚干旱区气候变化特征分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.01.01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用Climatic Research Unit（CRU）1949—2018年最新0.5°× 0.5°网格点月均数据集,主要从EOF分解、小波分析的角度,讨论了泛中亚干旱区近70 a的气候变化特征。结果表明：（1）泛中亚干旱区近70 a降水以1.393 mm·(10a)^-1的速率呈增加趋势,夏季降水呈减少趋势,其余三季为增加趋势,其中冬季最明显[（0.834 mm·(10a)^-1],同时冬季增温幅度也最大[0.360 ℃·(10a)^-1];（2）降水距平场的EOF分析表明：泛中亚干旱区降水变化趋势呈整体一致性（降水第一模态）,西南-东北反向变化特征（降水第二模态）,由西向东“-+-”交替分布特征（降水第三模态）,3个模态都存在显著的准3 a周期,第一模态还存在5~7 a和准12 a周期,第三模态存在准7 a变化周期;（3）温度距平场的EOF分析表明：温度距平变化表现出整体一致性（温度第一模态）,东-西反向变化特征（温度第二模态）,第一模态具有显著的准2 a、8~10 a周期,第二模态具有明显的2~4 a、准5 a周期。传统意义上的暖季并没有呈现出比较明显的增温多雨,冷季反而增温幅度更大,降水增加更明显。哈萨克斯坦中部、土库曼斯坦及蒙古国大部干旱化趋势明显,哈萨克斯坦东西两侧、我国新疆北部以及帕米尔高原的部分地方表现出显著的湿润化趋势,我国西北大部地区总体呈弱的湿润化趋势。随着亚洲夏季风的减弱,冷季降水增量高于暖季,这似乎说明亚洲冬季风对泛中亚干旱区降水的影响正在加大。本研究结果旨在加深对泛中亚干旱区气候变化特征的认识,为进一步防灾减灾、合理应对气候变化、坚持可持续发展战略提供科学依据。

关键词: 泛中亚干旱区, EOF分解, 小波分析, 变化趋势

Abstract:

Climate change in arid areas is an important scientific issue. Based on monthly Climatic Research Unit data from 1949 to 2018, the characteristics of climate change in the Pan-Central-Asian arid region throughout the past 70 years were studied used empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and wavelet analyses. The results showed that precipitation in the Pan-Central-Asian arid area increased at the rate of 1.393 mm·(10a)^-1 in the past 70 years. Precipitation in summer showed a decreasing trend, while the other three seasons showed an increasing trend, of which winter was the most obvious [0.834 mm·(10a)^-1]. Winter also showed the largest temperature increase [0.360 °C·(10a)^-1]. EOF analysis of precipitation anomalies shows that the precipitation anomalies in the Pan-Central-Asia arid region reflected overall consistency (the first mode of precipitation), the southwest-northeast showed reverse change characteristics (the second mode of precipitation), and west to east exhibited “-+-” alternating distribution characteristics (the third mode of precipitation). There were markedly quasi 3 a periods in all three modes, and the first mode also had quasi 5-7 a and quasi 12 a periods, while the third mode also exhibited a quasi 7 a change period. The EOF analysis of temperature anomalies showed that the temperature anomalies reflected the overall consistency (the first mode of temperature), east-west showed reverse change characteristics (the second mode of temperature), and the first mode had quasi 2 a and 8-10 a periods. At the same time, there were obvious 2-4 a and quasi 5 a cycles in the second mode. The warm season did not show a more obvious increase in the temperature and rainfall, while the cold season showed a larger increase in temperature and precipitation. Some regions presented a witting trend, such as the east and west sides of Kazakhstan, northern Xinjiang in China, and parts of the Pamir Plateau, while other places like central Kazakhstan, most of Mongolia, and Northwestern China exhibited an obvious drying trend. In general, most of Northwest China is in a weak wetting trend. With the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon, the precipitation increment in the cold season is higher than that in the warm season, which seems to indicate that the influence of the Asian winter monsoon on precipitation in the Pan-Central-Asia arid area is increasing. The research results of this paper aim to deepen the understanding of the characteristics of climate change in the Pan-Central-Asia arid region, as well as provide a scientific basis for further disaster prevention and mitigation, rational response to climate change, and sustainable development strategies.

Key words: Pan-Central-Asia arid area, EOF, wavelet analysis, changing trend

闫昕旸,张强,张文波,任雪塬,王胜,赵福年. 泛中亚干旱区气候变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(1): 1-11.

YAN Xinyang,ZHANG Qiang,ZHANG Wenbo,REN Xueyuan,WANG Sheng,ZHAO Funian. Analysis of climate characteristics in the Pan-Central-Asia arid region[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(1): 1-11.

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地区	降水变化率/[mm·(10a)^-1]					温度变化率/[℃·(10a)^-1]
地区	年	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	年	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
全球	1.225	0.514^*	-0.499	0.549^*	0.703^*	0.215^*	0.248^*	0.171^*	0.206^*	0.239^*
泛中亚	1.393	0.169	-0.633	0.759	0.834	0.304^*	0.354^*	0.232^*	0.270^*	0.360^*

时期	1901—2018年	1901—1948年	1949—1978年	1979—1998年	1999—2018年
降水/[mm·(10a)^-1]	1.021^*	-1.765	-1.138	0.637	8.564
温度/[℃·(10a)^-1]	0.142^*	0.038	0.194^*	0.311	0.046
潜在蒸发/[mm·(10a)^-1]	4.179^*	2.678	9.514^*	10.604	10.960

模态	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
方差贡献/%	28.548^*	10.896^*	7.888^*	5.998	5.704	4.784	3.902	3.035
累计方差/%	28.548	39.444	47.332	53.330	59.034	63.818	67.720	70.755

模态	1	2	3	4	5	6
方差贡献/%	77.660^*	9.170^*	4.676^*	2.687^*	1.602	0.929
累计方差/%	77.660	86.830	91.506	94.193	95.795	96.724