甘肃省冬小麦干旱灾害风险评估及其区划

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提高西北旱作冬小麦干旱风险管理水平，选用甘肃省41个气象站1971—2016年逐日常规气象观测资料及甘肃省冬小麦农业生产相关资料，基于自然灾害风险理论，从危险性、暴露性、脆弱性、防灾能力4个因子出发，建立了甘肃省冬小麦干旱灾害风险评估模型，并用ArcGIS对甘肃省冬小麦进行干旱风险区划。结果表明：甘肃省冬小麦全生育期干旱高危险区和次高危险区主要位于陇中北部、陇东北部和陇南南部；高暴露区和次高暴露区集中在陇东和陇南地区；高脆弱区和次高脆弱区主要位于陇东大部；次低防灾能力区和低防灾能力区位于陇东大部和陇南北部。甘肃省冬小麦高风险区分布于庆阳市北部和陇南市南部，次高风险区和中度风险区主要位于陇东大部、陇中北部和天水市北部，省内其余冬小麦区属于次低和低风险区。该研究成果将为甘肃冬小麦防灾减灾及可持续发展提供一定理论依据。

关键词: 冬小麦, 干旱, 风险评估, 区划, 甘肃

Abstract: Winter wheat is the major grain crop in Gansu Province, where precipitation is the most important factor affecting the dry-farming winter wheat production. The uneven spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation results in the drought occurrence for winter wheat in the province. Therefore, it is of great significance to improve drought risk management level for dry-farming winter wheat in northwest China. In this paper, the daily meteorological data from 41 stations and the data related to winter wheat production in Gansu Province during the period of 1971-2016 were used. Based on the natural disaster risk theory, the drought risk for winter wheat was assessed. The results showed that the zones with high drought risk for winter wheat in Gansu Province were mainly located in north Qingyang City and south Longnan City, the drought hazards for winter wheat in whole growth period were high or sub-high, especially in south Longnan City, and winter wheat yield per unit area in north Qingyang City was lower and more unstable than the average in Gansu Province. The zones with sub-high and moderate drought risk were mainly located in the most regions of Longdong, north Longzhong and north Tianshui City, the drought hazards for winter wheat in whole growth period were moderate or sub-low, the area ratios of winter wheat were higher than the average in Gansu Province, and the productivity level and stability of winter wheat was different from different regions in Gansu Province. The study results could provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and mitigation of drought for winter wheat and for the sustainable development in Gansu Province.

Key words: winter wheat; drought')">

winter wheat; drought, risk assessment, regionalization, Gansu Province

贾建英, 韩兰英, 万信, 刘文婧. 甘肃省冬小麦干旱灾害风险评估及其区划[J]. 干旱区研究, 2019, 36(6): 1478-1486.

JIA Jian-ying, HAN Lan-ying, WAN Xin, LIU Wen-jing. Risk and Regionalization of Drought for Winter Wheat in Gansu Province[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2019, 36(6): 1478-1486.

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