1961—2017年柴达木盆地干湿状况及其影响因子

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 根据1961—2017年柴达木盆地8个气象站数据资料，采用联合国粮农组织FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散量，继而算得湿润指数，辅以气候倾向率、M-K检验、Morlet小波周期和主成分分析等方法，探究柴达木盆地干湿变化特征及影响因素。结果表明：1961—2017年，柴达木盆地整体具有变湿趋势，变化倾向率为0.007·(10a)^-1（α≥0.001），且湿润指数年际变化波动较大，变异系数为30.73%，春、夏、秋、冬四季湿润指数均呈上升趋势，倾向率分别为0.003·(10a)^-1、0.009·(10a)^-1、0.004·(10a)^-1、0.003·(10a)^-1；空间变化差异显著，盆地东部地区变湿趋势大于西部，德令哈和都兰变湿趋势最为显著；湿润指数在1981年和1986年发生突变，且存在2.8 a和3.6 a（α≥0.05）的变化周期，与大气环流2~4 a周期较吻合；主成分分析表明，降水量和平均气温是柴达木盆地湿润指数主要影响因子。此外，湿润指数与北半球极涡面积和强度及亚洲区极涡面积和强度关系密切，相关系数分别为-0.46、-0.36、-0.49、-0.47，均通过99%的显著性检验。

关键词: 干湿事件, 潜在蒸散量, 气候变化, 湿润指数, Penman-Monteith模型, 柴达木盆地

Abstract:

The Penman-Monteith model was applied to estimate the values of evapotranspiration (ET0) in the Qaidam Basin during the period of 1961-2017 based on the meteorological data from 8 meteorological stations. Then the values of surface humid index were derived, and the climate tendency rate, IDW interpolation, M-K test, Morlet wavelet and principal component analysis were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of humid index and its affecting factors in the study area. The results showed that the humid index in recent 57 years was in an increase trend 0.007·(10a)^-1, which revealed that the regional climate became wetter in the Qaidam Basin, the interannual variation of the humid index was significant, and the variable coefficient was 30.73%. Seasonally, the humid indexes in spring, summer, autumn and winter were all in an increase trend, and the tendency rates were 0.003·(10a)^-1, 0.009·(10a)^-1, 0.004·(10a)^-1 and 0.003·(10a)^-1 respectively. Spatially, difference of the variation was very significant, and the increase of humid index in the eastern part of the basin was more significant than that in the western part. Mutation of humid index occurred in 1981 and 1986, and there were 2.8-and 3.6-year periods of humid index variation (α≥0.05), which was relatively identical with the 2-4-year periodicity of general atmospheric circulation. Principal component analysis showed that precipitation and average temperature were the main factors affecting the variation of humid index in the Qaidam Basin. In addition, the correlation coefficients between the humid index and the PVA, PVI, APVI and APVII were -0.46, -0.36, -0.49 and -0.47 (α≥0.01) respectively.

Key words: drought/wet event')">

drought/wet event, potential evapotranspiration, climate change, humid index, Penman-Monteith model, Qaidam Basin

张旺雄, 刘普幸. 1961—2017年柴达木盆地干湿状况及其影响因子[J]. 干旱区研究, 2019, 36(6): 1391-1400.

ZHANG Wang-xiong, LIU Pu-xing. Surface Humid Situation and Its Affecting Factors in the Qaidam Basin from 1961 to 2017[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2019, 36(6): 1391-1400.

参考文献 45

[1]	Planton S,Déqué M,Chauvin F,et al.Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events[J].Comptes Rendus Geoscience,2008,340(9):564-574.
[2]	Dai A.Drought under global warming:A review[J].Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change,2010(2):45-65.
[3]	Keyantash J,Dracup J A.The quantification of drought:An evaluation of drought indices[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2002,83(8):1 167-1 180.
[4]	Stringer L C,Dyer J C,Reed M S,et al.Adaptations to climate change,drought and desertification:Local insights to enhance policy in Southern Africa[J].Environmental Science & Policy,2009,12(7):748-765.
[5]	Changnon S A,Pielke R A,Changnon D,et al.Human factors explain the increased losses from weather and climate extremes[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2000,81(3):437-442.
[6]	Schubert S D.On the cause of the 1930s dust bowl[J].Science,2004,303(5 665):1 855-1 859.
[7]	Plummer N,Salinger M J,Nicholls N,et al.Changes in climate extremes over the Australian region and New Zealand during the twentieth century[J].Climatic Change,1999,42(1):183-202.
[8]	Costa A C,Soares A.Local spatiotemporal dynamics of a simple aridity index in a region susceptible to desertification[J].Journal of Arid Environments,2012,87(4):8-18.
[9]	Sarlak N,Agha O M A M.Spatial and temporal variations of aridity indices in Iraq[J].Theoretical & Applied Climatology,2018,133(2):89-99.
[10]	Salvati L,Sateriano A,Zitti M.Longterm land cover changes and climate variations:A countryscale approach for a new policy target[J].Land Use Policy,2013,30(1):401-407.
[11]	Rayne 〖JP2〗S,Forest K.Evidence for increasingly variable palmer drought 〖JP〗severity index in the United States since 1895[J].Science of the Total Environment,2016,544(2):792-796.
[12]	申双和,张方敏,盛琼.1975—2004年中国湿润指数时空变化特征[J].农业工程学报,2009,25(1):11-15.[Shen Shuanghe,Zhang Fangmin,Sheng Qiong.Spatiotemporal changes of wetness index in China from 1975 to 2004[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2009,25(1):11-15.]
[13]	徐羽,吴艳飞,徐刚,等.长三角地区地表干湿状况及极端干湿事件特征研究[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(9):1 579-1 590.[Xu Yu,Wu Yanfei,Xu Gang,et al.Characteristics of surface humidity and extreme drought/wet events in Yangtze River Delta[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(9):1 579-1 590.]
[14]	王允,刘普幸,曹立国,等.基于湿润指数的1960—2011年中国西南地区地表干湿变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(5):830-838.[Wang Yun,Liu Puxing,Cao Liguo,et al.Characteristics of Southwestern China dry-wet condition based on wetness index in 1960-2011[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(5):830-838.]
[15]	贺晋云,张明军,王鹏,等.近50年西南地区极端干旱气候变化特征[J].地理学报,2011,66(9):1 179-1 190.[He Jinyun,Zhang Mingjun,Wang Peng,et al.Climate characteristics of the extreme drought events in Southwest China during recent 50 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(9):1 179-1 190.]
[16]	Wang Jianbing,Wang Suping,Wang Zhigui.The variety characters of potential evapotranspiration and soil surface humidity index in the Zoige Wetland in 1971-2010[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2015,35(2):245-250.
[17]	胡子瑛,周俊菊,张利利,等.中国北方气候干湿变化及干旱演变特征[J].生态学报,2018,38(6):1 908-1 919.[Hu Ziying,Zhou Junju,Zhang Lili,et al.Climate drywet change and drought evolution characteristics of different dry-wet areas in Northern China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2018,38(6):1 908-1 919.]
[18]	靳立亚,李静,王新,等.近50年来中国西北地区干湿状况时空分布[J].地理学报,2004,59(6):847-854.[Jin Liya,Li Jing,Wang Xin,et al.Temporal and spatial distribution of dry and wet conditions in Northwest China in recent 50 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2004,59(6):847-854.]
[19]	王兴梅,张勃,张凯,等.石羊河流域极端干旱事件的时空变化特征[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(3):299-305.[Wang Xingmei,Zhang Bo,Zhang Kai,et al.The spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme drought events in Shiyang River Basin[J].Progress in Geography,2011,30(3):299-305.]
[20]	张彦龙,刘普幸.基于AI指数的新疆干湿时空变化及其影响因素分析[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(4):658-671.[Zhang Yanlong,Liu Puxing.Study on temporal and spatial variation of the dry-wet and its influence factors in Xinjiang based on aridity index[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2016,31(4):658-671.]
[21]	潘保田,李吉均.青藏高原：全球气候变化的驱动机与放大器──Ⅲ．青藏高原隆起对气候变化的影响[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),1996,32(1):108-115.[Pan Baotian,Li Jijun.QinghaiTibetan Plateau:A driver and amplifier of the global climatic change:Ⅲ.The effeets of the uplift of QinghaiTibetan Plateau on climate changes[J].Journal of Lanzhou University（Natural Sciences）,1996,32(1):108-115.]
[22]	李林,申红艳,李红梅,等.柴达木盆地气候变化的区域显著性及其成因研究[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(4):641-650.[Li Lin,Shen Hongyan,Li Hongmei,et al.Regional differences of climate change in Qaidam Basin and its contributing factors[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(4):641-650.]
[23]	尹文杰,张梦琳,胡立堂.柴达木盆地干旱时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(2):387-394.[Yin Wenjie,Zhang Menglin,Hu Litang.Spatiotemporal variation of drought in the Qaidam Basin[J].Arid Zone Research,2018,35(2):387-394.]
[24]	王建,黄巧华,柏春广,等.2.5Ma以来柴达木盆地的气候干湿变化特征及其原因[J].地理科学,2002,22(1):34-38.[Wang Jian,Huang Qiaohua,Bai Chunguang,et al.Tendency of the Quaternary climatic change in Qaidam Basin and its causal mechanism[J].Scientia Geographical Science,2002,22(1):34-38.]
[25]	戴升,申红艳,李林,等.柴达木盆地气候由暖干向暖湿转型的变化特征分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(1):211-220.[Dai Sheng,Shen Hongyan,Li Lin,et al.Analysis on climatic transition characteristic from warm-dry to warm-wet in Tsaidam Basin[J].Plateau Meteorology,2013,32(1):211-220.]
[26]	徐浩杰,杨太保.柴达木盆地植被生长时空变化特征及其对气候要素的响应[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(3):398-409.[Xu Haojie,Yang Taibao.Spatialtemporal variations of vegetation activities and its response to climatic factors in the Qaidam Basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(3):398-409.]
[27]	陈建伟,张煜星.湿润指数与干操度关系的探讨[J].中国沙漠,1996,16(1):79-82.[Chen Jianwei,Zhang Yuxing.Discussion on relation between humidity index and aridity degree[J].Journal of Desert Research,1996,16(1):79-82.]
[28]	马柱国,华丽娟,任小波.中国近代北方极端干湿事件的演变规律[J].地理学报,2003,58(增刊1):69-74.[Ma Zhuguo,Hua Lijuan,Ren Xiaobo.The evolution law of extreme dry and wet events in modern north China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2003,58(Suppl.1):69-74.]
[29]	祝昌汉.再论总辐射的气候学计算方法(二)[J].大气科学学报,1982(2):196-206.[Zhu Changhan.A further discussion on the climatological calculating method of total radiation (II)[J].Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1982(2):196-206.]
[30]	王文圣,丁晶,向红莲.水文时间序列多时间尺度分析的小波变换法[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2002,34(6):14-17.[Wang Wensheng,Ding Jing,Xiang Honglian.Multiple time scales analysis of hydrological time series with wavelet transform[J].Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Science Edition),2002,34(6):14-17.]
[31]	魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.[Wei Fengying.Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Forecasting Technology[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1999.]
[32]	任国玉,初子莹,周雅清,等.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):701-716.[Ren Guoyu,Chu Ziying,Zhou Yaqing,et al.Recent progresses in studies of regional temperature changes in China[J].Climate and Environmental Research,2005,10(4):701-716.]
[33]	李林,陈晓光,王振宇,等.青藏高原区域气候变化及其差异性研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(3):181-186.[Li Lin,Chen Xiaoguang,Wang Zhenyu,et al.Climate change and its regional differences over the Tibetan Plateau[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2010,6(3):181-186.]
[34]	张宁瑾,肖天贵,假拉.1979—2016年青藏高原降水时空特征[J].干旱气象,2018,36(3):373-382.[Zhang Ningjin,Xiao Tiangui,Jia La.Spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation in the Tibet Plateau from 1979 to 2016[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology,2018,36(3):373-382.]
[35]	商沙沙,廉丽姝,马婷,等.近54 a中国西北地区气温和降水的时空变化特征[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(1):68-76.[Shang Shasha,Lian Lishu,Ma Ting,et al.Spatiotemporal variation of temperature and precipitation in Northwest China in recent 54 years[J].Arid Zone Research,2018,35(1):68-76.]
[36]	高歌,陈德亮,任国玉,等.1956—2000年中国潜在蒸散量变化趋势[J].地理研究,2006,25(3):378-387.[Gao Ge,Chen Deliang,Ren Guoyu,et al.Trend of potential evapotranspiration over China during 1956 to 2000[J].Geographical Research,2006,25(3):378-387.]
[37]	王小静,李志,赵姹,等.西北旱区1961—2011年参考作物蒸散量的时空分异[J].生态学报,2014,34(19):5 609-5 616.[Wang Xiaojing,Li Zhi,Zhao Cha,et al.Spatiotemporal variations of the reference crop evapotranspiration in the arid region of Northwest China during 1961-2011[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014,34(19):5 609-5 616.]
[38]	曾红玲,高新全,戴新刚.近20年全球冬、夏季海平面气压场和500 hPa高度场年代际变化特征分析[J].高原气象,2002,21(1):66-73.[Zeng Hongling,Gao Xinquan,Dai Xingang.Analysis on interdecadal change characteristics of global winter and summer surface pressure field and 500 hPa height field in recent twenty years[J].Plateau Meteorology,2002,21(1):66-73.]
[39]	Wang Huijun.The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970’s[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2001,18(3):376-386.
[40]	姚檀栋,秦大河,田立德,等.青藏高原2 ka来温度与降水变化——古里雅冰芯记录[J].中国科学(D辑:地球科学),1996,26(4):348-353.[Yao Tandong,Qin Dahe,Tian Lide,et al.Changes in temperature and precipitation in the QinghaiTibet Plateau from 2 ka:Guliya ice core record[J].Science in China (Series D:Earth Science),1996,26(4):348-353.]
[41]	吴晓红,王绍武.对流层大气环流的甚低频振荡[J].气象学报,1996,54(4):427-436.[Wu Xiaohong,Wang Shaowu.Very low frequency oscillations in the variations of tropospheric atmospheric general circulation[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1996,54(4):427-436.]
[42]	吴增祥.气象台站历史沿革信息及其对观测资料序列均一性影响的初步分析[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(4):461-467.[Wu Zengxiang.Preliminary analysis of the information on meteorological station historical evolution and its impacts on homogeneity of observational records[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2005,16(4):461-467.]
[43]	张亚宁,张勃,卓玛兰草,等.1960—2008年黑河流域地表干湿状况的时空变化分析[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(5):838-846.[Zhang Yaning,Zhang Bo,Zhuoma Lancao,et al.Analysis on spatiotemporal change of dry-wet conditions in the Heihe River Basin during the period from 1960 to 2008[J].Arid Zone Research,2012,29(5):838-846.]
[44]	曹丽娟,严中伟.地面气候资料均一性研究进展[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(2):129-135.[Cao Lijuan,Yan Zhongwei.Progresses in research of homogenization of climate data[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2011,7(2):129-135.]
[45]	丁一汇,任国玉,石广玉,等.气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,2006,2(1):3-8.[Ding Yihui,Ren Guoyu,Shi Guangyu,et al.National Assessment Report of Climate Change(I):Climate change in China and its future trend[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2006,2(1):3-8.]

Metrics

Viewed

Full text

345

HTML			PDF

Just accepted	Online first	Issue	Just accepted	Online first	Issue
0	0	0	0	0	345

From	Others	local

Times	38	307
Rate	11%	89%

Abstract

462

Just accepted	Online first	Issue

0	0	462

From	Others	local

Times	460	2
Rate	100%	0%

Cited

Web of Science	Crossref	ScienceDirect	Search for Citations in Google Scholar >>


This page requires you have already subscribed to WoS.

Shared