内蒙古巴拉格尔河径流变化的驱动因素分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2018.02.06

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于巴拉格尔河流域1959—2015年的水文、气象和社会经济等数据，采用累积距平法、改进的Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和累积量斜率变化率比较法等，定量分析了年代、水文年、季和月尺度下的径流变化规律及主要驱动因素。结果表明：巴拉格尔河流域径流量在各时间尺度均呈现显著减少趋势，而各气候要素的波动变化趋势不明显，流域内社会经济快速发展，人类活动显著；径流量在2000年代最小，相对于1960年代来说减少了74.78%；流域径流变化最显著的突变点为1998年，变化期（1999—2015年）与基准期（1959—1998年）相比，该流域气候波动对径流减少的贡献率仅为28.86%，而人类活动对径流减少的贡献率达到71.14%，因此，人类活动是引起径流量减少的主要驱动因素。

关键词: 高原内陆河, 草原流域, 气候变化, 人类活动, 径流, 贡献率, 巴拉格尔河, 内蒙古

Abstract: The Balager River Basin is a typical inland drainage basin and is located in a grassland plateau in China, where the grassland degeneration and the change of hydrological process are caused by many factors. It is very important to quantitatively analyze the variation of runoff volume, climate change and human activities for the reasonable utilization of water resources and conservation of grassland eco-environment. In this paper, the double cumulative curve, departure accumulation, improved Mann-Kendall trend test method and change rate of cumulative slope were used to quantitatively calculate and analyze the characteristics and main driving factors causing the change of runoff volume at different scales based on the hydrological, meteorological and socioeconomic data in the Balager River Basin during the period from 1959 to 2015. The following results were concluded (1) The shift point of runoff volume occurred in 1998. The runoff volume was changed under the influence of precipitation before 1998 (named as the reference period), while there were the double influences of climate change and human activities on runoff volume after 1998 (named as the variable period); (2) The annual, wet-seasonal and dry-seasonal runoff volumes were holistically decreased, but there was no significant precipitation variation; (3) Although there was no significant variable trend of precipitation (p= 0.428) at annual scale, the runoff volume was deceased significantly (p= 0.042). The runoff volume in the reference period was higher than that in the variable period when the precipitation was similar; (4) Both the runoff volume (p= 0.117) and precipitation (p = 0.077) decreased slightly in wet season, while the runoff volume in dry season (p = 0.003) decreased significantly but the precipitation (p = 0.286) did not. No matter in wet season or dry season, the average runoff volume in the reference period was higher than that in the variable period; (5) The monthly precipitation and runoff volume in the whole time series, reference period and variable period fluctuated similarly. The precipitation in July (107mm) was the highest, but the corresponding runoff volume (1.7mm) was not the highest. The highest runoff volume (2.963mm) occurred in April because of the melting of accumulated snow cover in winter; (6) Compared the climate factors in the reference period with those in the variable period, the variable ranges of temperature, precipitation and wind speed were 65.12%, -16.97% and -13.3% separately, while the fluctuations of other climate factors were less than 5%. So the temperature, precipitation and wind speed were the main climate factors affecting the runoff volume; (7) In the study area, the primary industry, sheep number and population increased by 3.8 times, 12.06% and 9% separately; (8) The contribution rates of runoff volume reduction due to climate change and human activities were 28.86% and 71.14% respectively, so human activities were the main driving forces causing the change of runoff volume. The study results can provide the references for analyzing the ecological hydrological change, water resources utilization and conservation in the process of socio-economic development in grassland watershed in semiarid area of north China.

Key words: inland drainage basin in plateau, typical grassland basin, climate change, human activity, runoff volume, contribution rate, Balager River, Inner Mongolia

白勇，高瑞忠，王喜喜，刘廷玺，王威娜. 内蒙古巴拉格尔河径流变化的驱动因素分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2018, 35(2): 296-305.

BAI Yong, GAO Rui-zhong, WANG Xi-xi, LIU Ting-xi, WANG Wei-na. Driving factors causing the change of runoff volume of the Balager River in Inner Mongolia[J]. , 2018, 35(2): 296-305.

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