关键词: 植棉业, 时空演化, 发展度, 适宜性, 塔里木河流域

Abstract: The Tarim River Basin is one of the most appropriate areas to produce cotton in China. It has become as the main area to produce high-quality cotton in China because of its natural advantages since recent decades. Based on the statistical data of cotton production during the period of 1949-2007, in this paper the spatiotemporal evolution of cotton production in the Tarim River Basin was analyzed based on the development index and suitability index. The results are as follows: (1) Cotton production in the Tarim River Basin was developed remarkably during the period from 1949 to 2007. The process of cotton production development was divided into three phases, i.e. the slow progress during the period of 1949-1985, rapid growth during the period from 1986 to 1999, and controlled expansion from 2000; (2) With the rapid development of cotton production, the major cotton production areas were reduced in the west Tarim River Basin while expanded eastward and northward. The development trend of cotton production could be divided into 5 evolution types, i.e. the steady predominance, promotional predominance, declining predominance, feeble predominance and naught predominance; (3) Suitability of cotton production in the Tarim River Basin is different from different regions. The counties with suitable temperature, abundant arable land and enough water resources around the mainstream of the Tarim River were the suitable regions to plant cotton. Several counties in the north Tarim River Basin are unsuitable for cotton production because of unfavorable climate. Other counties are the hypo-suitable regions to plant cotton; (4) The preponderant cotton production areas around the mainstream of the Tarim River correspond with the suitable region of producing cotton. Some cotton production areas are irrationally expanded. The cotton production areas with steady predominance are distributed in the suitable regions of producing cotton. Some cotton production areas with promotional predominance are in the suitable regions, and some in the hypo-suitable or unsuitable regions. The other cotton production areas were mainly in the hypo-suitable and unsuitable regions.

Key words: cotton production, spatiotemporal evolution, development index, suitability index, Tarim River Basin