关键词: PSR模型, 耕地集约利用, 时空演化, 多元回归分析, 新疆

Abstract: It is an effective way to improve the level of intensive cultivated land use scientifically and reasonably so as to guarantee the regional food security and promote the regional sustainable development. In this study,the 83 county-level regions in Xinjiang were taken as the study units,an index system was developed based on the PSR model,the entropy value method was used to determine the index weight,and the composite model of weighted summation was taken to evaluate the level of intensive cultivated land use.Moreover,the PSR system coordination model was built to evaluate the subsystem coordination of cultivated land use in Xinjiang.In Addition,the longitudinal comparison coefficient and the comprehensive comparison coefficient were introduced,the ArcGIS 10.2 spatial analysis means were used to reveal and analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of intensive cultivated land use at county scale in Xinjiang during the period from 2000 to 2013.In the end,an in-depth discussion on the factors affecting the spatial and temporal evolution of cultivated land use in Xinjiang was made using the multiple regression analysis method.The results of this study revealed that the pressure index P of whole Xinjiang was holistically promoted steadily during the period from 2000 to 2013; the state index S of whole Xinjiang was overall fluctuated and eventually decreased during the study period; the response index R of whole Xinjiang was overall fluctuated and eventually increased during the period from 2000 to 2013.On the side,it was pretty obvious that the variation trends of state index S and response index R were opposite in different periods.It was also found that the degree of intensive cultivated land use F was overall increased steadily,and the harmonization degree of cultivated land PSR system D was overall decreased in a fluctuation way in whole Xinjiang during this period.It was also pretty easy to find that the regions with an increase of intensive cultivated land use F were more than those with a decrease in the 83 county-level regions in Xinjiang during the study period.On the contrary,the regions with a decrease of harmonization degree of cultivated land PSR system D were more than those with an increase in the 83 county-level regions in Xinjiang during the period from 2000 to 2013.Most of regions were not scientifically in intensive cultivated land,as having only 15 regions with increase of intensive cultivated land use F and harmonization degree of cultivated land PSR system D in Xinjiang duruing the study peiod.The spatial difference of intensive cultivated land use in the 83 county-level regions in Xinjiang was obvious,and the spatial aggregation was developed towards a spatial balance.Some factors,such as the high-tech agricultural development,population growth,natural conditions and economic development level,affected the intensive cultivated land use to varying degrees,but the relationship between factors and intensive cultivated land use was slightly different in various years.

Key words: PSR model, intensive cultivated land use, spatiotemporal evolution, multiple regression analysis, Xinjiang