水资源-社会经济-生态环境耦合协调度关系研究及预测——以黄河流域内蒙古段为例

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.04.10

干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 682-694.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.04.10

水资源-社会经济-生态环境耦合协调度关系研究及预测——以黄河流域内蒙古段为例

孟庆帅¹(), 巩钰¹^,²^,³^,⁴, 刘小燕¹^,²^,³^,⁴(), 童新¹^,²^,³^,⁴, 王东民⁵, 谢国英⁶, 刘廷玺¹^,²^,³^,⁴

1.内蒙古农业大学水利土木建筑工程学院，内蒙古呼和浩特 010018
2.内蒙古农业大学旱区水工程生态环境全国重点实验室，内蒙古呼和浩特 010018
3.内蒙古自治区生态水文与水资源高效利用重点实验室，内蒙古呼和浩特 010018
4.黄河流域内蒙段水资源与水环境综合治理自治区协同创新中心，内蒙古呼和浩特 010018
5.敖汉旗水利局，内蒙古赤峰 024300
6.内蒙古自治区水利事业发展中心，内蒙古呼和浩特 010010

收稿日期:2024-09-27 修回日期:2025-03-04 出版日期:2025-04-15 发布日期:2025-04-10
通讯作者: 刘小燕. E-mail: liuxy6675@163.com
作者简介:孟庆帅（1999-），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为水文水资源. E-mail: menqinshu@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(U2243234);内蒙古农业大学旱区水工程生态环境全国重点实验室(SQ2024SKL08048);国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3206503);内蒙古自治区科技项目(2020ZD0009);教育部创新团队发展计划(IRT_17R60);内蒙古自治区科技领军人才团队(2022LJRC0007);内蒙古农业大学基本科研业务费专项资金(BR22-12-04);内蒙古农业大学基本科研业务费专项资金(BR22-10-12)

Research and prediction of the degree of coupling coordination of water resources, socioeconomic development, and the ecological environment: A case of the Inner Mongolia section in the Yellow River Basin

MENG Qingshuai¹(), GONG Yu¹^,²^,³^,⁴, LIU Xiaoyan¹^,²^,³^,⁴(), TONG Xin¹^,²^,³^,⁴, WANG Dongmin⁵, XIE Guoying⁶, LIU Tingxi¹^,²^,³^,⁴

1. Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering College, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, Inner Mongolia, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Water Engineering Ecology and Environment in Arid Area, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, Inner Mongolia, China
3. Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology and High-Efficient Utilization of Water Resources, Hohhot 010018, Inner Mongolia, China
4. Collaborative Innovation Center for Integrated Management of Water Resources and Water Environment in Inner Mongolia Section of the Yellow River Basin, Hohhot 010018, Inner Mongolia, China
5. Water Conservancy Bureau of Aohan Country, Chifeng 024300, Inner Mongolia, China
6. Development Center for Water Conservancy in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Hohhot 010010, Inner Mongolia, China

Received:2024-09-27 Revised:2025-03-04 Published:2025-04-15 Online:2025-04-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着经济和社会的高速发展，人类活动同自然环境之间的竞争显著增强，在社会发展与环境保护之间如何抉择成为重要问题。首先，本文构建水资源-社会经济-生态环境复合系统耦合协调度模型，明晰黄河流域内蒙古段1998—2022年系统协调发展状况，其次，利用改进LSTM（Long Short-Term Merory）模型基于四种综合调控方案对系统未来5 a发展情况进行预测。结果表明：（1）黄河流域内蒙古段各盟市的水资源、社会经济、生态环境子系统评价指数分布区间分别为[0.47~0.57]、[0.47~0.87]、[0.42~0.58]，表明区域水资源、生态环境子系统整体协调状况处于中等水平，社会经济子系统虽相对较高但仍有发展空间。（2）黄河流域内蒙古段各盟市水资源-社会经济-生态环境系统耦合协调度发展在0.67~0.80之间呈逐步上升状态，整体变化幅度为19%。（3）通过对未来情景预测发现，阿拉善、巴彦淖尔与乌兰察布三盟市采用水资源-社会经济联合调控改善力度最大，乌海市采用社会经济-生态环境联合改善力度最大，包头市、呼和浩特市与鄂尔多斯市采用水资源-生态环境联合调控改善力度最大。

关键词: 耦合协调度, 时空分布特征, 改进LSTM, 黄河流域内蒙古段

Abstract:

With rapid socioeconomic development, competition between human activities and the natural environment has intensified significantly, making the balance between socioeconomic development and environmental protection critical. This study constructs a coupling coordination model for a water resources-socioeconomic-ecological environment system to assess the coordination status of the Inner Mongolia section in the Yellow River Basin from 1998 to 2022. Additionally, an improved LSTM model is employed to predict the development trends over the next five years under four integrated regulation scenarios. The results indicate that: (1) The evaluation indices of the water resources, socioeconomic, and ecological environment subsystems across cities in the Yellow River Basin are 0.47-0.57, 0.47-0.87, and 0.42-0.58, respectively, reflecting moderate overall coordination level in the water resources and ecological environment subsystems, whereas the socioeconomic subsystem exhibits relatively higher values but still has room for improvement. (2) The coupling coordination degree of the system in each city shows a gradual upward trend (0.67-0.80), with an overall increase of 19%. (3) Future scenario predictions reveal that joint regulation of water resources and socioeconomic factors leads to the most significant improvements in Alxa, Bayannur, and Ulanqab, whereas joint regulation of socioeconomic and ecological environment factors yields the greatest improvements in Wuhai. Meanwhile, joint regulation of water resources and the ecological environment proves most effective in Baotou, Hohhot, and Ordos.

Key words: coupling coordination degree, spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, improved LSTM, the Inner Mongolia section in the Yellow River Basin

孟庆帅, 巩钰, 刘小燕, 童新, 王东民, 谢国英, 刘廷玺. 水资源-社会经济-生态环境耦合协调度关系研究及预测——以黄河流域内蒙古段为例[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(4): 682-694.

MENG Qingshuai, GONG Yu, LIU Xiaoyan, TONG Xin, WANG Dongmin, XIE Guoying, LIU Tingxi. Research and prediction of the degree of coupling coordination of water resources, socioeconomic development, and the ecological environment: A case of the Inner Mongolia section in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(4): 682-694.

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准则层	指标层
准则层	序号	名称	指标计算	单位
水资源指标	1	水资源人均占有量	水资源量/区域年人口数	m³∙人^-1
	2	水资源模数	水资源量/区域总面积	10⁵m³∙km^-2
	3	产水系数	水资源总量/年降雨总量	无量纲
	4	总用水量	区域年耗水资源量	10⁸m³
	5	年平均降雨量	历年降雨量之和/年数	mm
	6	年平均蒸发量	历年蒸发量之和/年数	mm
社会经济指标	7	农业用水占比	农业用水量/总用水量×100%	%
	8	工业用水占比	工业用水量/总用水量×100%	%
	9	生活用水占比	生活用水量/总用水量×100%	%
	10	城镇居民人均可支配收入	城镇可支配收入/城镇人口总数	元∙人^-1
	11	农村居民人均可支配收入	农村可支配收入/农村人口总数	元∙人^-1
	12	城镇化率	在城镇居住半年以上人口/总人口数×100%	%
	13	人口密度	人口总数/土地面积	人∙km^-2
	14	一产占比	第一产业产值/地区总GDP	%
	15	二产占比	第二产业产值/地区总GDP	%
	16	三产占比	第三产业产值/地区总GDP	%
	17	工业产值模数	工业产值/土地面积	%
	18	人均GDP	GDP/总人口	元∙人^-1
生态环境指标	19	污水处理率	区域污水处理比例	%
	20	生态用水比例	生态环境用水量/总用水量	%
	21	植被覆盖率	有植被覆盖面积/总面积	%
	22	工业二氧化硫排放量	工业生产中SO₂排放量	t∙a^-1
	23	工业废水排放量	工业生产中废水排放量	t∙a^-1

指标	I₁	I₂	I₃	I₄	I₅	I₆	I₇	I₈
真实值	210.3	4.40	0.14	10.73	256.63	1875.26	62.78	9.50
预测值	268.6	4.86	0.12	10.48	274.00	1931.00	62.52	7.43
指标	I₉	I₁₀	I₁₁	I₁₂	I₁₃	I₁₄	I₁₅	I₁₆
真实值	20.03	57085	25518	80.7	207	4.4	35.2	60.4
预测值	19.85	59137	24836	79.8	205	4.05	31.72	64.23
指标	I₁₇	I₁₈	I₁₉	I₂₀	I₂₁	I₂₂	I₂₃
真实值	545.77	106337	97.60	7.69	46.77	11535	2191
预测值	580.14	98668	98.45	10.20	48.23	15389	2280

水资源-社会经济-生态环境耦合协调度关系研究及预测——以黄河流域内蒙古段为例

Research and prediction of the degree of coupling coordination of water resources, socioeconomic development, and the ecological environment: A case of the Inner Mongolia section in the Yellow River Basin

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