近60 a天山北坡经济带天然径流量时空变化及归因识别

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.09.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

天山北坡经济带地处干旱的亚洲腹地，厘清天然径流量（NR）时空变化及成因对统筹区域发展、维持生态安全至关重要。为此，采用Sen’s斜率估计法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验等分析径流量时空变化，基于Budyko假设的水热耦合平衡方程定量评价降水、潜在蒸散发及下垫面对NR变化的贡献。结果表明：（1）近60 a天山北坡经济带NR总体呈显著增加趋势，年变化率0.68 mm·a^-1。1961—1986年波动较大，1987—2012年波动变小且NR增加明显，2013年后NR显著减少。（2） NR大小与海拔变化在空间上高度叠合，天山北坡经济带西部和南部NR较大，西南部与西北部增长幅度大。（3） NR突变点为1980年与2013年，降水一直是NR变化的主导因素，但下垫面影响不断加大，近60 a贡献率从31.5%增至45.5%。（4） 2012年前天然径流量主要受降水主导，但不同区域影响不同。2013年，西部、东部与中南部下垫面对径流量的影响已超过降水成为主导因素。研究成果深化了天山北坡经济带NR变化的认识，为天山北坡经济带高质量发展提供科学支撑。

关键词: 天然径流量变化, 时空格局, 降水, 下垫面, 天山北坡经济带

Abstract:

The northern slope economic belt of the Tianshan Mountains is located in the hinterland of Asia which faces severe drought. For regional development and ecological security, it is crucial to clarify the temporal and spatial changes of natural runoff and their causes. Therefore, Sen’s slope estimation method, the Mann-Kendall trend test, and others were used to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of natural runoff. The Budyko model parameter was applied to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and underlying surface to natural runoff changes. The results suggested that: (1) The natural runoff of the economic belt on the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains increased during the recent 60 years, and the annual change rate was 0.68 mm·a^-1. The fluctuation was conspicuous from 1961 to 1986 and decreased from 1987 to 2012. The natural runoff elevated from 1987 to 2012 and declined significantly after 2013. (2) The natural runoff volume and the elevation change were highly superposed in space, the natural runoff in the west and south was larger, and the increase in the southwest and northwest was highest. (3) Abrupt change points in natural runoff occurred from 1980 to 2013, with precipitation being the main factor. However, the influence of the underlying surface elevated, and the contribution rate enhanced from 31.5% to 45.5% in the past 60 years. (4) Before 2012, the natural runoff was mainly dominated by precipitation, but the influence was region-specific. In 2013, the influence of underlying surface on natural runoff in the west, east, central, and southern regions exceeded precipitation to become the dominant factor. It deepens the understanding of natural runoff change in the northern slope economic belt of the Tianshan Mountains and provides scientific support for the high-quality development of the region.

Key words: natural runoff variation, spatial-temporal pattern, precipitation, underlying surface, the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains

李宇航, 余文学, 杨永均, 朱燕峰, 马静, 陈浮. 近60 a天山北坡经济带天然径流量时空变化及归因识别[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(9): 1446-1455.

LI Yuhang, YU Wenxue, YANG Yongjun, ZHU Yanfeng, MA Jing, CHEN Fu. Spatio-temporal variation and attribution identification of natural runoff in the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains during the past 60 years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(9): 1446-1455.

图/表 7

图1

图2

图3

图4

表1

天山北坡经济带NR变化归因分析"

参数	$d R P$ /mm	$d R E T 0$ /mm	$d R ω$ /mm	$C P$ /%	$C E T 0$ /%	$C ω$ /%
第一个变化期（1980—2012年）	22.20	-0.10	10.27	68.2	0.3	31.5
第二个变化期（2013—2018年）	42.21	-1.84	-36.82	52.2	2.3	45.5

表1

图5

图6

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