塔里木河流域碳储量的气候影响机制及地形分异下的归因

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.05.14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本研究基于InVEST模型，估算塔里木河流域长时间序列的碳储量，刻画并分析其时空变化特征，采用趋势分析、相关系数及波段集统计等方法，探讨气候变化与塔里木河流域碳储量整体的时空关联性，借助偏最小二乘法定量剖析塔里木河流域不同地形下碳储量的变化归因。结果表明：（1） 2002—2020年塔里木河流域总体碳储量水平较低，整体呈“中部低，周边高”的马蹄形分布特征，整体情况呈向好趋势发展。（2）塔里木河流域碳储量与年均气温、潜在蒸散发量以及年均降水量均存在相反空间分布多于同向空间分布的特征，空间分异明显。（3）全局尺度下气候因素对碳储量的影响作用从大到小依次为潜在蒸散发量>年均气温>年均降水量。（4）潜在蒸散发量是塔里木河流域Ⅰ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ级地形位最具解释意义的变量，平均气温和平均降水量是Ⅱ、Ⅴ级地形位最具解释意义的变量。

关键词: 碳储量, 影响机制, 地形分异, 塔里木河流域

Abstract:

Using the InVEST model, the carbon storage in the Tarim River Basin was estimated over a long period, and the spatial--temporal variation characteristic were described using trend analysis, correlation coefficients, and band set statistics to explore the overall spatial-temporal correlation between climate change and carbon storage in the study area; in addition, quantitative analysis of was performed the attribution of carbon storage in different topographic locations with the help of partial least square method. The results showed that: (1) From 2002 to 2020, the overall carbon storage level in the Tarim River Basin was low, following a horseshoe-shaped distribution characteristic (“low in the middle and high in the periphery”), and overall followed an increasing trend. (2) Carbon storage and average annual temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and average annual precipitation in the study area had the characteristics of opposite spatial distribution rather than the same spatial distribution, and the spatial differentiation was obvious. (3) The overall influence of climate factors on carbon storage followed the order: potential evapotranspiration>average annual temperature>average annual precipitation. (4) The potential evapotranspiration is the most significant variable for the levels I, III, and IV topography in the Tarim River Basin, whereas the average temperature and average precipitation are the most significant variables for the levels II and V topography in the Tarim River Basin.

Key words: carbon storage, mechanism of influence, topographic differentiation, Tarim River Basin

程晓瑜, 吕洁华. 塔里木河流域碳储量的气候影响机制及地形分异下的归因[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(5): 865-875.

CHENG Xiaoyu, LYU Jiehua. Mechanism of climate influence on carbon storage in the Tarim River Basin and attribution under topographic differentiation[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(5): 865-875.

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土地覆盖类型	地上碳密度 /（t·km^-2）	地下碳密度 /（t·km^-2）	土壤碳密度 /（t·km^-2）	死亡有机物碳密度 /（t·km^-2）
农田	0.51	7.26	9.76	1.17
森林、灌木	3.82	10.43	21.32	1.17
草原	3.18	7.79	8.99	0.18
水域、冰雪、湿地	0	0	0	0
裸地	0.82	0	1.94	0
不透水面	0.11	0	0	0

年份	因素	碳储量	年均气温	潜在蒸散发量	年均降水量
2004年	碳储量	1	-0.11	-0.68	0.37
	年均气温	-0.11	1	0.11	-0.43
	潜在蒸散发量	-0.68	0.11	1	-0.35
	年均降水量	0.37	-0.43	-0.35	1
2012年	碳储量	1	-0.11	-0.68	0.36
	年均气温	-0.11	1	0.10	-0.45
	潜在蒸散发量	-0.68	0.10	1	-0.32
	年均降水量	0.36	-0.45	-0.32	1
2016年	碳储量	1	-0.15	-0.68	0.36
	年均气温	-0.11	1	0.09	-0.35
	潜在蒸散发量	-0.68	0.09	1	-0.31
	年均降水量	0.36	-0.35	-0.31	1
2020年	碳储量	1	-0.15	-0.69	0.37
	年均气温	-0.11	1	0.08	-0.35
	潜在蒸散发量	-0.69	0.08	1	-0.33
	年均降水量	0.37	-0.35	-0.33	1