基于能值分析的典型农牧交错带可持续发展规模研究——以内蒙古乌兰察布市为例

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.04.16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

运用能值方法分析农牧交错带内乌兰察布市2011—2020年生态经济系统可持续发展状况，以确定区域开发合理规模，实现区域可持续发展。结果表明：2011—2020年乌兰察布市生态经济系统投入能值（F）平稳上升；产出能值（Y）不断减少；环境负载率（ELR）不断上升；10 a间能值可持续指标（ESI）出现较大波动，总体下降。2011—2016年乌兰察布市能值可持续发展指标高于1，生态经济系统发展是可持续的；2017—2020年低于1，为不可持续状态。因此，中短期需增加可更新资源投入，缓解不可更新资源过度使用带来的生态环境退化、环境负荷高等问题，产业上进行技术创新降低生产成本，提高生产效率推动高能值产品产出，寻求新兴高能值产出部门替代低能值产出部门；长期需提高区域人口自然增长率，以便提高区域能值需求和产出。以优势交通区位和丰富的资源承接周围相对发达地区能值产出率高和环境负载率低的产业部门，以增强区域可持续发展能力。

关键词: 农牧交错带, 能值分析, 可持续发展能力, 乌兰察布市, 内蒙古

Abstract:

The emergy method was used to analyze the sustainable development status of the ecological and economic system in Ulanqab City in the agro-pastoral ecotone from 2011 to 2020, in order to determine the reasonable scale of regional development and achieve regional sustainable development. The results show that: from 2011 to 2020, the input emergy (F) of Ulanqab City’s ecological-economic system increased steadily; the output emergy (Y) continued to decrease; the environmental load rate (ELR) continued to increase; the emergy was sustainable for 10 years The indicator (ESI) experienced large fluctuations and declined overall. From 2011 to 2016, the emergy sustainable development index of Ulanqab City was higher than 1, indicating that the development of the ecological-economic system was sustainable. From 2017 to 2020, the emergy sustainable development index was lower than 1, indicating an unsustainable state. Therefore, in the short and medium term, it is necessary to increase investment in renewable resources to alleviate the ecological environment degradation and high environmental load caused by the overuse of non-renewable resources. The industry should carry out technological innovation to reduce production costs, improve production efficiency, promote the output of high-emergy value products, and seek new emerging technologies. High-emergy value output sectors replace low-emergy value output sectors; the natural growth rate of regional population needs to be increased in the long term in order to increase regional emergy demand and output. With advantageous transportation location and abundant resources, we will undertake industrial sectors with high emergy output rates and low environmental load rates in surrounding relatively developed areas to enhance regional sustainable development capabilities.

Key words: agro-pastoral ecotone, emergy analysis, sustainable development capabilities, Ulanqab City, Inner Mongolia

王鑫, 海山. 基于能值分析的典型农牧交错带可持续发展规模研究——以内蒙古乌兰察布市为例[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(4): 706-715.

WANG Xin, HAI Shan. Sustainable development scale of a typical agro-pastoral ecotone based on emergy analysis: A case study of Ulanqab City, Inner Mongolia[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(4): 706-715.

图/表 13

图1

表1

表2

表3

图2

图3

表4

表5

2011—2020年乌兰察布市部分工农业产品产出能值"

	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年
谷物	2.53×10¹⁶	3.14×10¹⁶	4.17×10¹⁶	3.38×10¹⁶	3.39×10¹⁶	3.69×10¹⁶	2.59×10¹⁶	4.75×10¹⁶	5.99×10¹⁶	6.66×10¹⁶
植物油	4.65×10¹⁶	5.70×10¹⁶	6.37×10¹⁶	8.05×10¹⁶	8.05×10¹⁶	2.62×10¹⁷	3.67×10¹⁷	2.67×10¹⁷	3.13×10¹⁷	2.69×10¹⁷
羊毛	4.71×10¹⁶	4.32×10¹⁶	3.92×10¹⁶	3.80×10¹⁶	3.99×10¹⁶	3.62×10¹⁶	3.45×10¹⁶	3.70×10¹⁶	3.29×10¹⁶	2.80×10¹⁶
水果	3.77×10¹⁴	3.47×10¹⁴	4.92×10¹⁴	3.69×10¹⁴	4.34×10¹⁴	4.93×10¹⁴	3.42×10¹⁴	3.07×10¹⁴	3.10×10¹⁴	3.22×10¹⁴
蔬菜	4.52×10¹⁶	4.55×10¹⁶	4.52×10¹⁶	4.31×10¹⁶	4.34×10¹⁶	5.08×10¹⁶	2.08×10¹⁶	2.49×10¹⁶	3.04×10¹⁶	2.95×10¹⁶
牛肉	1.15×10¹⁷	1.16×10¹⁷	1.13×10¹⁷	1.18×10¹⁷	1.18×10¹⁷	1.14×10¹⁷	1.00×10¹⁷	1.01×10¹⁷	1.06×10¹⁷	8.65×10¹⁶
羊肉	3.00×10¹⁷	2.42×10¹⁷	2.35×10¹⁷	2.62×10¹⁷	2.66×10¹⁷	2.79×10¹⁷	2.41×10¹⁷	2.16×10¹⁷	2.24×10¹⁷	2.09×10¹⁷
糖	4.08×10¹⁶	4.66×10¹⁶	5.27×10¹⁶	5.04×10¹⁶	1.00×10¹⁷	8.74×10¹⁶	1.08×10¹⁷	1.46×10¹⁷	1.31×10¹⁷	1.44×10¹⁷
乳制品	8.88×10¹⁷	7.80×10¹⁷	6.43×10¹⁷	4.19×10¹⁷	3.94×10¹⁷	3.40×10¹⁷	3.55×10¹⁷	3.94×10¹⁷	4.18×10¹⁷	4.23×10¹⁷
水泥	1.91×10²³	2.12×10²³	2.50×10²³	2.93×10²³	3.02×10²³	3.32×10²³	6.08×10²²	5.80×10²²	8.21×10²²	1.08×10²³
钢材	2.51×10²²	1.94×10²²	2.30×10²²	3.31×10²²	2.57×10²²	2.75×10²²	5.59×10²¹	6.17×10²¹	8.82×10²¹	1.05×10²²
农药	1.41×10¹⁸	1.34×10¹⁸	1.47×10¹⁸	1.34×10¹⁸	1.37×10¹⁸	1.32×10¹⁸	1.46×10¹⁸	1.26×10¹⁸	1.28×10¹⁸	1.23×10¹⁸
氮肥	1.80×10²⁰	1.74×10²⁰	1.67×10²⁰	1.77×10²⁰	1.96×10²⁰	1.83×10²⁰	1.63×10²⁰	1.46×10²⁰	1.32×10²⁰	1.14×10²⁰
磷肥	4.19×10¹⁹	3.75×10¹⁹	3.53×10¹⁹	3.78×10¹⁹	5.04×10¹⁹	6.17×10¹⁹	6.85×10¹⁹	7.44×10¹⁹	7.24×10¹⁹	4.04×10¹⁹
钾肥	4.54×10¹⁸	3.94×10¹⁸	4.01×10¹⁸	4.41×10¹⁸	2.67×10¹⁸	3.74×10¹⁸	5.50×10¹⁸	8.14×10¹⁸	7.40×10¹⁸	5.30×10¹⁸
复合肥	8.28×10¹⁹	8.47×10¹⁹	8.75×10¹⁹	8.79×10¹⁹	8.54×10¹⁹	8.69×10¹⁹	9.44×10¹⁹	7.16×10¹⁹	7.08×10¹⁹	9.75×10¹⁹

表5

表6

表7

图4

图5

图6

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		2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年
户籍人口		288.77	286.97	283.27	276.96	273.87	273.51	272.12	271.1	268.91	266.5
常住人口	统计局数据	213.46	212.94	212.30	211.71	211.13	210.67	210.25	209.61	209.02	169.5
常住人口	推算数据	213.46	208.58^*	203.69^*	198.81^*	193.92^*	189.04^*	184.16^*	179.27^*	174.39^*	169.5

能值指标	公式	概念
投入能值（F）	可更新资源能值	太阳能、风能、水资源等
	不可更新资源能值	农业产品、畜牧业产品、能源产品、工矿产品等
	区外输入能值	农业产品、畜牧业产品、能源产品、工矿产品、服务、旅游、劳动力等
产出能值（Y）	产业能值	以不同产业产出核算
净能值产出率（EYR）	EYR=Y/F	产出能值/投入能值
环境负载率（ELR）	ELR=(N+F)/R	投入的不可更新资源能值总量/投入的可更新资源能值总量
能值可持续指标（ESI）	ESI=EYR/ELR	净能值产出率/环境负载率

类别	项目	计算公式
可更新资源	太阳能、风能、雨水势能、雨水化学能、地球循环能	能量×能量折算系数×能值转换率
不可更新资源	土壤损耗能	耕地面积×侵蚀率×有机质含量×能量折算系数×能值转换率
可更新资源产品	谷物、植物油、羊毛、水果、蔬菜、牛羊肉、乳制品、农药等	产量（电量）×能量折算系数×能值转换率
不可更新资源产品	水泥、钢材、糖、火电、原煤、汽油、柴油、矿产资源等	产量（电量）×能量折算系数×能值转换率
输入资源	原煤、原油、天然气、氮肥、磷肥、化学农药原药	产量×能量折算系数×能值转换率
货币流	商品进口、实际利用外资、旅游外汇收入、劳务输入、商品出口	货币数额×能值/货币比率
废弃物流	废气、废水、固体废弃物	排放量×能量折算系数×能值转换率

	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年
可更新资源
太阳能	3.19×10²⁰	3.19×10²⁰	3.19×10²⁰	3.19×10²⁰	3.19×10²⁰	3.19×10²⁰	3.19×10²⁰	3.19×10²⁰	3.19×10²⁰	3.19×10²⁰
雨水化学能	1.45×10²¹	1.45×10²¹	1.45×10²¹	1.45×10²¹	1.45×10²¹	1.45×10²¹	1.45×10²¹	1.45×10²¹	1.45×10²¹	1.45×10²¹
雨水势能	2.49×10²¹	2.49×10²¹	2.49×10²¹	2.49×10²¹	2.49×10²¹	2.49×10²¹	2.49×10²¹	2.49×10²¹	2.49×10²¹	2.49×10²¹
地球循环能	1.85×10²¹	1.85×10²¹	1.85×10²¹	1.85×10²¹	1.85×10²¹	1.85×10²¹	1.85×10²¹	1.85×10²¹	1.85×10²¹	1.85×10²¹
可更新资源总能值	6.11×10²¹	6.11×10²¹	6.11×10²¹	6.11×10²¹	6.11×10²¹	6.11×10²¹	6.11×10²¹	6.11×10²¹	6.11×10²¹	6.11×10²¹
不可更新资源
一产	1.58×10²²	1.58×10²²	1.58×10²²	1.58×10²²	1.58×10²²	1.58×10²²	1.58×10²²	1.58×10²²	1.58×10²²	1.58×10²²
二产	8.68×10²¹	9.24×10²¹	1.21×10²²	1.37×10²²	1.46×10²²	1.57×10²²	1.61×10²²	1.97×10²²	2.47×10²²	2.98×10²²
进口	7.24×10¹⁹	1.81×10¹⁹	2.98×10¹⁹	2.90×10¹⁹	7.87×10¹⁹	9.32×10¹⁹	2.90×10¹⁹	4.49×10¹⁹	2.38×10²⁰	1.56×10²⁰
不可更新资源总能值	2.46×10²²	2.51×10²²	2.79×10²²	2.95×10²²	3.05×10²²	3.16×10²²	3.20×10²²	3.55×10²²	4.07×10²²	4.57×10²²
总能值	3.07×10²²	3.12×10²²	3.40×10²²	3.56×10²²	3.66×10²²	3.77×10²²	3.81×10²²	4.17×10²²	4.68×10²²	5.18×10²²

	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
一产（P）	6.90×10¹⁷	6.52×10¹⁷	6.60×10¹⁷	6.95×10¹⁷	7.58×10¹⁷	9.45×10¹⁷	9.76×10¹⁷	9.07×10¹⁷	9.64×10¹⁷	9.03×10¹⁷
二产（S）	2.16×10²³	2.31×10²³	2.73×10²³	3.26×10²³	3.29×10²³	3.60×10²³	6.68×10²²	6.45×10²²	9.12×10²²	1.19×10²³
三产（T）	5.11×10²¹	6.49×10²¹	8.20×10²¹	9.32×10²¹	9.49×10²¹	9.79×10²¹	1.16×10²²	1.21×10²²	1.31×10²²	1.32×10²²
总能值（T_E）	2.21×10²³	2.37×10²³	2.81×10²³	3.35×10²³	3.38×10²³	3.70×10²³	7.84×10²²	7.66×10²²	1.04×10²³	1.32×10²³