基于空-地协同调查的西天山阿尔先沟雪崩过程数值模拟

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.11.03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为精确识别雪崩流动特性及流态信息，全面分析其运动过程。本研究基于无人机倾斜摄影技术获取高分辨率航拍数据，以阿尔先沟雪崩易发区为例，通过现场调查、无人机遥感解译精细探测雪崩活动过程，确定RAMMS模型输入参数，在此基础上对不同类型雪崩事件进行模拟和重建，对比分析传统地面调查、无人机遥感解译结果与模拟结果的差异，探讨不同类型、不同雪层释放条件下雪崩活动过程。研究结果表明：（1）以倾斜摄影技术为核心的雪崩调查分析体系，将传统的地面调查方法结合无人机遥感和数值模拟相互验证，提高了灾害发育状况评估的准确性。（2） 2月中旬阿尔先沟坡面积雪厚度趋近于临界厚度值，持续降雪使雪层失稳触发新雪雪崩。调查时仍处于灾害孕育阶段，雪层裂缝加剧变形，风力作用下雪檐自重逐步增大，有超过雪的抗断强度的趋势，整体稳定性较差。（3）以坡面上方积雪平台为潜在释放区的坡面型雪崩，释放量可达8.2669×10⁴ m³，运动时长约为128 s，并在120 s内堆积区流动高度达到最大，约为3.55 m，最大流动速度为18.34 m·s^-1，最大冲击力可达到32.67 kPa，形成面积3369.7 m²，体积1.8525×10⁴ m³的堆积体。通过相互验证，坡面型雪崩并非积雪平台的释放，地面调查结果与数值模拟解译结果存在差异。（4）沟槽—坡面复合型雪崩为沟槽坡面雪层断裂释放且断裂深度仅为临界厚度值的60%左右，雪崩持续时间接近于300 s，堆积区最大流动速度6.58 m·s^-1，最大冲击力17.97 kPa，平均堆积深度为1.64 m，影响范围1178.5 m²，堆积量3107.76 m³，地面调查结果与数值模拟结果一致。研究结果一定程度上提高了雪崩事件信息获取的准确性，可为今后雪崩潜在危险预测、风险规避及灾害应急处置提供强有力的数据支撑及科学依据。

关键词: 雪崩, 无人机, 倾斜摄影, 数值模拟, 运动特征

Abstract:

This study was implemented to accurately identify the avalanche flow characteristics and flow information, and comprehensively analyze avalanche motion. This study was based on UAV tilt photography technology to obtain high-resolution aerial photography data, taking the avalanche-prone area of Aerxiangou as an example. Through on-site investigation and UAV remote sensing interpretation to detect avalanche activity in a high-resolution manner, the goals were to determine the input parameters of the RAMMS model, to simulate and reconstruct different types of avalanche events on this basis, and to comparatively analyze the differences among the results of conventional ground-based investigation, UAV remote sensing interpretation, and simulation results to explore avalanche activity in different types and different snow layer release conditions. The results of the study show that (1) the avalanche investigation and analysis system based around tilt photography technology, which combines conventional ground-based investigation methods with UAV remote sensing and numerical simulation to verify each other, improves the accuracy of the assessment of disaster development status. (2) In mid-February, the snow on the slopes of Aerxiangou approaches the critical thickness value, and continuous snowfall destabilizes the snow layer and triggers new avalanches. The investigation is still in the disaster breeding stage, the snow layer cracks intensified deformation, the role of the wind snow eave self-weight gradually increased, there is more than the trend of the breaking strength of the snow, and the overall stability is poor. (3) In slope-type avalanches with a snow platform above the slope surface as the potential release area, the release volume can reach 8.2669×10⁴ m³, the movement duration is about 128 s, and the flow height of the accumulation area peaks in 120 s at about 3.55 m, the flow velocity is about 18.34 m·s^-1, and the impact force is about 32.67 kPa. In addition, the accumulation area is formed into an accumulation with an area of 3369.7 m² and a volume of 1.8525×10⁴ m³ of the pile. Through mutual verification, the slope-type avalanche does not involve release of the snow platform, and there is a discrepancy between the ground-based investigation results and numerical simulation interpretation results. (4) Trench-slope composite avalanches are released by fracture of the snow layer on the trench-slope, where the depth of fracture is only about 60% of the critical thickness value, the avalanche duration is close to 300 s in this case, and the impact range is 1178.5 m² in the accumulation area, with an average accumulation depth of 1.64 m. The flushing-out volume is 3107.76 m³, the maximum flow rate in the accumulation area is 6.58 m·s^-1, and the maximum impact force is 17.97 kPa. The results of the ground-based investigation are roughly the same as those of the numerical simulation based on the 3D model. The results of the study have improved the accuracy with which avalanche event information can be acquired and can provide strong data support and a scientific basis for predicting future avalanche potential hazards, risk avoidance, and disaster emergency response.

Key words: avalanche, unmanned aerial vehicle, oblique photography, numerical simulation, motion feature

张天意, 刘杰, 杨治纬, 王斌, 程秋连. 基于空-地协同调查的西天山阿尔先沟雪崩过程数值模拟[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(11): 1729-1743.

ZHANG Tianyi, LIU Jie, YANG Zhiwei, WANG Bin, CHENG Qiulian. Numerical simulation of avalanche process in Aerxiangou, West Tianshan Mountains, based on air-ground cooperative investigation[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(11): 1729-1743.

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	雪层厚度/cm
	100	80	60	40	20	10	0
雪层温度/℃	-0.1	-0.6	-0.4	-0.1	-0.1	0	0
雪层密度/（g·cm^-3）	263	283	303	314	337	360	385

项目	参数	项目	参数
模式	倾斜摄影	拍照模式	等距间隔拍照
航线/条	5	旁向重叠率/%	75
倾斜角度/（°）	45	航线重叠率/%	80
飞行高度/m	1000	旁向重叠率（倾斜）/%	70
边距/m	20	航线重叠率（倾斜）/%	70

地形条件	海拔/m	μ	ξ
非沟渠型地形	>3000	0.29	1500
	3000~2700	0.305	1400
	<2700	0.33	1250
沟渠型地形	>3000	0.34	1250
	3000~2700	0.355	1180
	<2700	0.37	1050
沟谷地形	>3000	0.45	1050
	3000~2700	0.46	1100
	<2700	0.47	900
平坦地形	>3000	0.275	1750
	3000~2700	0.285	1600
	<2700	0.295	1500

	不同断裂深度/m
	0.84	0.67	0.34
运动时长/s	256	275	298
堆积量/m³	11717	4578.22	3107.76
堆积面积/m²	1369.7	1299.5	1178.5
堆积区最大流动高度/m	9.22	7.03	4.23
最大堆积高度/m	3.8	3.05	2.47
平均堆积深度/m	2.5	2.27	1.64
堆积区最大流动速度/（m·s^-1）	13.6	10.24	6.58
堆积区最大冲击力/kPa	30.72	21.42	17.97