黄河上游生态脆弱区复合生态系统韧性时空分异——以宁夏为例

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.02.14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

提升生态脆弱区抗扰动和恢复能力是生态文明建设的重要内容。构建基于经济、社会、自然多维视角的复合生态系统韧性评估模型，利用熵值法和GIS空间分析法，对2010—2020年宁夏复合生态系统韧性进行时空差异性分析，借助耦合协调模型、相关性分析和障碍度模型诊断影响生态韧性提升的关键因素。结果表明：（1）宁夏复合生态系统韧性水平呈上升态势，但整体水平较低，经济韧性增速最快。高经济韧性北部密集分布，高社会韧性以市区为中心成片分布，高自然韧性主要连片分布在东、南、西、北四角，北部复合生态系统韧性高于中部和南部。（2）宁夏复合生态系统的耦合度较高、但协调度偏低，研究时段内耦合协调度提升缓慢，大部分区县仍处于严重失调和中等失调状态。（3）经济结构与经济潜力、基础设施、民生改善、自然环境表现出很强的正相关性。准则层中人口数量、环境压力、经济活力对复合生态系统韧性提升产生较大影响，指标层中综合能源消耗量和交通仓储邮政人员数对大部分区县韧性提升有较大影响。今后需积极发挥各影响因素的正向协同效应，快速提升宁夏复合生态系统韧性，以有效助力黄河流域生态保护和高质量先行区建设。

关键词: 复合生态系统韧性, 耦合协调度, 相关性分析, 障碍度模型, 生态脆弱区, 黄河上游

Abstract:

Improving the disturbance resistance and restoration of ecologically fragile areas is an important part of ecological civilization construction. The key factors affecting ecological resilience were diagnosed with the help of coupling coordination model, correlation analysis, and obstacle model. Based on the economic, social, and natural multidimensional perspective of composite ecosystem resilience assessment model, using entropy method and GIS spatial analysis, in 2009-2019 Ningxia composite ecosystem resilience difference analysis was done. The results show that: (1) The resilience of Ningxia’s composite ecosystem is on the rise, but the overall level is low, and economic resilience grows the fastest. High economic resilience is densely distributed in the north, and high social resilience is centered in the city. High natural resilience is mainly distributed in the east, south, west, and north corners, and the northern composite ecosystem is more resilient than that in the central and southern regions. (2) The coupling degree of the composite ecosystem in Ningxia is relatively high, but the coordination degree is relatively low. The coupling and coordination degree improves slowly during the research period, and most districts and counties are still in a state of serious and moderate imbalance. (3) The economic structure shows a strong positive correlation with the economic potential, infrastructure, the improvement of people’s livelihood, and the natural environment. Population, environmental stress, and economic vitality in the criterion layer have a significant impact on the composite ecosystem’s resilience, while the index layer’s total energy consumption and the number of workers in the transportation, storage, and postal sectors have a significant impact on the resilience of the majority of districts and counties. In the future, it is necessary to actively play the positive synergistic effect of various influencing factors to rapidly improve the resilience of the composite ecosystem in Ningxia, to effectively help the ecological protection and the construction of a high-quality pilot zone in the Yellow River.

Key words: resilience of composite ecosystems, coupling coordination degree, correlation analysis, obstacle degree model, eecological fragile areas, upper reaches of the Yellow River

杨航,侯景伟,马彩虹,杨晨,王彦卷. 黄河上游生态脆弱区复合生态系统韧性时空分异——以宁夏为例[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(2): 303-312.

YANG Hang,HOU Jingwei,MA Caihong,YANG Chen,WANG Yanjuan. Spatio-temporal differentiation of the composite ecosystem resilience in the ecologically fragile area in the upper reaches of the Yellow River: A case study in Ningxia[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(2): 303-312.

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目标层	准则层	指标层		属性	权重
经济韧性（A1）	经济结构（B1）	非私营企业平均工资/元	（C1）	+	0.0357
		规模以上工业企业数/个	（C2）	+	0.0367
		社会消费品零售额/10⁸元	（C3）	+	0.0392
	经济活力（B2）	财政预算收入/10⁸元	（C4）	+	0.0382
		地区生产总值/10⁸元	（C5）	+	0.0388
		人均可支配收入/元	（C6）	+	0.0362
	经济潜力（B3）	第三产业比重/%	（C7）	+	0.0353
		教育投入/10⁴元	（C8）	+	0.0388
		一般公共预算支出/10⁸元	（C9）	+	0.0364
社会韧性（A2）	基础设施（B4）	床位数量/张	（C10）	+	0.0387
		交通仓储邮政业人数/人	（C11）	+	0.0390
		水利环境基础设施投入/10⁴元	（C12）	+	0.0382
	民生改善（B5）	农作物产量/(kg·hm^-2)	（C13）	+	0.0354
		在岗职工数/人	（C14）	+	0.0390
		自来水受益村/个	（C15）	+	0.0370
	人口要素（B6）	常住人口数/人	（C16）	+	0.0379
		人口增长率/%	（C17）	+	0.0351
		卫生技术人员数/个	（C18）	+	0.0392
自然韧性（A3）	环境压力（B7）	工业二氧化硫排放量/t	（C19）	-	0.0321
		生活废水排放量/10⁴t	（C20）	-	0.0320
		生活烟尘排放量/t	（C21）	-	0.0322
	生态治理（B8）	废气处理设施/套	（C22）	+	0.0382
		工业固体垃圾综合利用量/t	（C23）	+	0.0388
		生活污水处理吨数/t	（C24）	+	0.0379
	自然环境（B9）	草地/hm²	（C25）	+	0.0367
		降水量/mm	（C26）	+	0.0376
		综合能源消费量/吨标准煤	（C27）	-	0.0395

协调等级	区间	协调等级	区间
极度失调	[0, 0.1)	勉强协调	[0.5, 0.6)
严重失调	[0.1, 0.2)	初级协调	[0.6, 0.7)
中度失调	[0.2, 0.3)	中级协调	[0.7, 0.8)
轻度失调	[0.3, 0.4)	良好协调	[0.8, 0.9)
濒临失调	[0.4, 0.5)	优质协调	[0.9, 1]

年份	耦合度	协调度	耦合协调度	年份	耦合度	协调度	耦合协调度
2010	0.9870	0.0205	0.1423	2016	0.9878	0.0285	0.1678
2011	0.9928	0.0225	0.1494	2017	0.9903	0.0313	0.1761
2012	0.9950	0.0243	0.1554	2018	0.9807	0.0336	0.1814
2013	0.9936	0.0258	0.1601	2019	0.9743	0.0338	0.1815
2014	0.9961	0.0268	0.1634	2020	0.9732	0.0359	0.1870
2015	0.9966	0.0278	0.1664

	B1	B2	B3	B4	B5	B6	B7	B8	B9
B1	1
B2	0.992^**	1
B3	0.812^**	0.772^**	1
B4	0.861^**	0.839^**	0.925^**	1
B5	0.907^**	0.922^**	0.613^*	0.713^*	1
B6	-0.257	-0.259	-0.142	-0.335	-0.427	1
B7	-0.4	-0.31	-0.584	-0.324	-0.213	-0.116	1
B8	0.629^*	0.675^*	0.177	0.337	0.785^**	-0.531	0.111	1
B9	0.859^**	0.883^**	0.723^*	0.826^**	0.889^**	-0.295	-0.149	0.611^*	1

年份	B1	B2	B3	B4	B5	B6	B7	B8	B9
2010	0.1267	0.1363	0.1061	0.1109	0.1090	0.1392	0.0157	0.1329	0.1232
2015	0.1094	0.1405	0.1106	0.1103	0.1159	0.1429	0.0148	0.1280	0.1275
2020	0.0981	0.1383	0.0866	0.1157	0.1256	0.1424	0.0189	0.1403	0.1342
最大值	0.1273	0.1420	0.1120	0.1148	0.1238	0.1429	0.0175	0.1409	0.1305
平均数	0.1136	0.1396	0.1066	0.1113	0.1157	0.1401	0.0143	0.1328	0.1259
变异系数	0.0825	0.0103	0.0548	0.0180	0.0396	0.0130	0.0972	0.0359	0.0211