环境条件对黄河流域植被干旱状态的影响特征分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.12.10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为明晰黄河流域不同植被干旱指数对气候变化的空间响应特征，选取2003—2022年的植被状态指数（VCI）、植被健康指数（VHI）、温度植被干旱指数（TVDI）与降水、温度、蒸散发数据，结合趋势分析、空间通径分析及多层感知机（MLP）回归分析，探究黄河流域3种植被干旱指数的时空变化特征，揭示气候因子对黄河流域植被干旱状态的直接影响、间接影响和综合影响。结果表明：（1） 20 a内VCI、VHI呈波动上升趋势，TVDI增减趋势不明显；空间上以温带-暖温带界限为分割，东南方向TVDI与西北方向VHI降低趋势明显。（2）降水对VCI、温度对TVDI的直接促进作用最强，降水对TVDI、温度对VHI的间接作用最强；TVDI主要受降水的抑制作用，VCI、VHI主要受温度的促进作用。（3） 3种植被干旱指数均与降水、温度呈负相关关系，与潜在蒸散发量呈正相关关系；影响TVDI的主要影响特征为潜在蒸散发量，影响VCI、VHI的最主要影响因素为温度；VHI最适用于黄河流域的植被干旱状态判定。研究结果可为黄河流域干旱状况评估及治理提供理论依据。

关键词: 黄河流域, 干旱, 通径分析, MLP回归分析, 植被干旱指数

Abstract:

In this study, we aimed to clarify the spatial response of different vegetation drought indices to climate change in the Yellow River Basin. We selected the vegetation condition index (VCI), vegetation health index (VHI), and temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI), along with precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration data from 2003 to 2022. Using trend analysis, spatial path analysis, and multi-layer perceptron regression analysis, we examined the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the three drought vegetation indices in the Yellow River Basin. Our findings reveal the direct, indirect, and overall effects of climatic factors on drought in the Yellow River Basin. The results show the following: (1) During the 20 years under study, VCI and VHI showed a fluctuating upward trend, while TVDI remained stable without significant increases or decreases. Spatially, the temperate-warm temperate boundary is delineated, revealing significant reductions in TVDI in the southeast and VHI in the northwest. (2) Precipitation has the strongest direct effect on VCI, while temperature exerts the most significant direct influence on TVDI. Additionally, the indirect effects of precipitation on TVDI and temperature on VHI are also substantial. TVDI is primarily inhibited by precipitation, while temperature predominantly enhances VCI and VHI. (3) The four drought indices exhibited a negative correlation with precipitation and temperature and a positive correlation with potential evapotranspiration. Potential evapotranspiration is the primary influencing factor for TVDI, while temperature is the main influencing factor for both VCI and VHI. Among these indices, the VHI is the most suitable for drought assessment in the Yellow River Basin. Our study offers a theoretical basis for vegetation drought assessment and management in the Yellow River Basin.

Key words: Yellow River Basin, drought, path analysis, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) regression analysis, vegetation condition index

杨晓娟, 韩立新, 吕超. 环境条件对黄河流域植被干旱状态的影响特征分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(12): 2083-2093.

YANG Xiaojuan, HAN Lixin, LYU Chao. Analysis of the influence of environmental conditions on the vegetation drought index in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(12): 2083-2093.

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数据名称	时间分辨率（2003—2022年）	空间分辨率	原始空间分辨率	数据格式
温度植被干旱指数（TVDI）	年	1 km×1 km	1 km×1 km	TIF
植被状态指数（VCI）	年	1 km×1 km	1 km×1 km	TIF
植被健康指数（VHI）	年	1 km×1 km	1 km×1 km	TIF
逐月平均气温（TMP）	月	1 km×1 km	55 km×55 km	TIF
逐月降水量（PRE）	月	1 km×1 km	55 km×55 km	TIF
逐月潜在蒸散发（PET）	月	1 km×1 km	-	TIF
黄河流域边界	-	-	-	SHP

特征值		TVDI	VCI	VHI
特征重要性	PET	0.2574	0.0885	0.1842
	PRE	-0.1517	-0.2378	-0.0197
	TMP	-0.1538	-0.3779	-0.3646
评价指标	MAE	0.0047	0.0080	0.0005
	RMSE	0.0062	0.0211	0.0001
	R²	0.6086	0.8672	0.9458