两种中尺度模式对甘肃河东暴雨日降水预报偏差精细化评估

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.12.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用2019—2021年暖季（5—9月）甘肃河东20个暴雨日的小时实况和模式数据，用降水强度、频率等要素进行研究，评估了CMA-SH9、CMA-MESO模式在4个子区（甘南高原、陇南、陇东和陇中）的降水日变化预报偏差。结果表明：（1）两种模式在陇南、陇东、甘南高原对≥2.5 mm·h^-1和≥5 mm·h^-1降水预报能力相当，但在陇中CMA-MESO对≥5 mm·h^-1的降水比CMA-SH9更易空报。（2）对≥2.5 mm·h^-1降水强度两种模式预报白天偏大，夜间偏小，夜间实况峰值时段偏差最大，陇中、陇东CMA-SH9降水强度预报在大多数时次优于CMA-MESO，陇南夜间CMA-SH9优于CMA-MESO，白天反之；陇南和陇东（甘南高原）CMA-SH9对≥5 mm·h^-1降水强度预报整体优于（劣于）CMA-MESO。（3）对≥2.5 mm·h^-1降水频率两种模式预报白天偏低，夜间偏高，夜间实况峰值时段偏差最大，CMA-SH9降水频率预报整体优于CMA-MESO；在陇南、陇中和陇东各时次对≥5 mm·h^-1降水频率预报偏低，实况峰值时段偏低更明显。（4）在4个子区内两种模式均以位相误差为主，振幅误差小。

关键词: 小时降水, 日变化, 降水强度和频率, 偏差特征

Abstract:

In this study, we assess the characteristic bias in the diurnal precipitation forecasts from two models—CMA-SH9 and CMA-MESO—for hourly precipitation forecasts across four subregions in the Hedong Region of Gansu Province (the Gannan Plateau and the Longnan, Longdong, and Longzhong regions). These forecasts were assessed based on rainfall amount and frequency, using observed hourly precipitation data from 20 storm rainy days between May and September 2019-2021 in the same region. The results show the following: (1) Both models have similar forecasting abilities for precipitation amounts of ≥2.5 mm·h^-1 and ≥5 mm·h^-1 in the Gannan Plateau and the Longnan and Longdong regions. However, the CMA-MESO model facilitates easier precipitation forecasts of ≥5 mm·h^-1 in the Longzhong region than the CMA-SH9 model. (2) For rainfall ≥2.5 mm·h^-1, both models overestimate intensity during the day and underestimate it at night compared to observations, with significant deviations mostly occurring around the peak time of observed rainfall at night. The CMA-SH9 model generally outperforms the CMA-MESO model in predicting rainfall intensity in the Longzhong and Longdong regions most times of the day. In the Longnan region, the CMA-SH9 model performs better than the CMA-MESO model in predicting rainfall intensity at night but performs worse during the day. For rainfall ≥5 mm·h^-1, the CMA-SH9 model consistently predicts rainfall intensity better than the CMA-MESO model in the Longnan and Longdong regions, but worse in the Gannan Plateau, most of the time. (3) For rainfall ≥2.5 mm·h^-1, both models predict higher rainfall frequency during the day and lower frequency at night compared to observations, with significant deviations mostly occurring around the peak time of observed rainfall at night. The CMA-SH9 model mostly outperforms the CMA-MESO model in predicting rainfall frequency. For rainfall ≥5 mm·h^-1, both models underestimate rainfall frequency compared to observations in the Longnan, Longzhong, and Longdong regions, with the negative forecast deviation more pronounced around the peak time of observed rainfall at night. (4) Phase error are predominant across the four subregions for both models, while amplitude error was minimal.

Key words: hourly rainfall, diurnal variation, rainfall intensity and frequency, forecast deviation

杨秀梅, 孔祥伟, 沙宏娥, 张君霞. 两种中尺度模式对甘肃河东暴雨日降水预报偏差精细化评估[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(12): 1992-2003.

YANG Xiumei, KONG Xiangwei, SHA Hong’e, ZHANG Junxia. Refined assessment of precipitation prediction deviation in stormy days using two mesoscale models in the Hedong Region, Gansu Province[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(12): 1992-2003.

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暴雨发生时间	日最大降水量	暴雨发生时间	日最大降水量
2019年7月21日	136.3 mm（合水刘家庄）	2020年7月24日	144.3 mm（文县中庙）
2019年8月2日	124.2 mm（西峰彭原）	2020年8月10日	116.4 mm（宕昌哈达铺）
2019年8月19日	92.9 mm（岷县西江牛坝）	2020年8月12日	89.1 mm（成县毕河）
2019年8月20日	101.6 mm（天水长河）	2020年8月15日	119.7 mm（文县马家沟）
2019年8月26日	85.1 mm（镇原临泾）	2020年8月16日	129.1 mm（文县碧口）
2019年9月12日	104.6 mm（文县口头坝）	2020年8月23日	73.1 mm（西和马元）
2020年6月15日	68.8 mm（成县厂坝矿区）	2021年7月14日	168.3 mm（礼县湫山）
2020年6月25日	132.1 mm（静宁威戎）	2021年7月25日	103.4 mm（和政牙塘水库）
2020年7月10日	126.1 mm（康县两河）	2021年8月18日	189.9 mm（镇原闫沟）
2020年7月17日	60.6 mm（泾川樊家）	2021年9月25日	168.2 mm（康县阳坝）

	Bias≥1.2	Bias≤0.8	0.8<Bias<1.2
CMA-SH9	63%	28%	9%
CMA-MESO	81%	6%	13%