FY-4A卫星在宁夏短时强降水中的适用性研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.02.01

干旱区研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 163-172.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.02.01 cstr: 32277.14.j.azr.2023.02.01

FY-4A卫星在宁夏短时强降水中的适用性研究

邵建^1,^2,³(),张肃诏^1,⁴,陈敏²,李强⁴,郑友炯²,程瑶²,马宁⁵

1.中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室，宁夏银川 750002
2.银川市气象局，宁夏银川 750002
3.宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室，宁夏银川 750002
4.宁夏气象台，宁夏银川 750002
5.宁夏气象信息中心，宁夏银川 750002

收稿日期:2022-08-29 修回日期:2022-10-15 出版日期:2023-02-15 发布日期:2023-03-08
作者简介:邵建（1981-），男，高级工程师，从事天气预报和气象防灾减灾技术研究. E-mail: shaosdh@163.com
基金资助:
宁夏回族自治区青年拔尖人才项目(2017-RQ0086);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2020-131);宁夏回族自治区重点研发项目(2018BEG030020)

Application of FY-4A satellite data in short-time severe precipitation of Ningxia

SHAO Jian^1,^2,³(),ZHANG Suzhao^1,⁴,CHEN Min²,LI Qiang⁴,ZHENG Youjiong²,CHENG Yao²,MA Ning⁵

1. Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions, China Meteorological Administration, Yinchuan 750002, Ningxia, China
2. Yinchuan Meteorological Bureau, Yinchuan 750002, Ningxia, China
3. Ningxia Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction, Yinchuan 750002, Ningxia, China
4. Ningxia Meteorological Observatory, Yinchuan 750002, Ningxia, China
5. Ningxia Meteorological Information Center, Yinchuan 750002, Ningxia, China

Received:2022-08-29 Revised:2022-10-15 Published:2023-02-15 Online:2023-03-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过收集2018—2020年宁夏短时强降水个例及其对应时段的FY-4A卫星资料，选取FY-4A卫星云类型CLT、云相态CLP、云顶高度CTH、对流层折叠最深深度TFTP_Z_depth、降水估计QPE等5类产品进行可用性分析。结果表明：（1） FY-4A数据接收率和物理保存情况，足以支持实时监测预警业务；（2） 5类产品在宁夏短时强降水个例中有不同的表现，其中CLT、CLP具有较好的可用性，可以较好的判断云的类别；而CTH和QPE均存在较大误差且均为偏小趋势，需结合其他手段予以订正；CTT、TFTP_Z_depth两种产品与短时强降水的对应关系较为明显，而CTH高值有利于出现强降水，但并不是出现强降水的必要条件。整体来说，FY-4A卫星在宁夏短时强降水天气中具有一定可用性和参考性，可为对流性天气判别、人工影响天气作业提供较好的数据支持。

关键词: FY-4A卫星, 短时强降水, 适用性分析, 统计分析, 宁夏

Abstract:

By using FY-4A satellite data and artificial observation data of recent (2018-2020) severe precipitation cases in Ningxia, four different FY-4A satellite product types are examined in terms of their availability. Results show that: (1) The data transmission rate and physical preservation of FY-4A are sufficient to support real-time monitoring and early warning services; (2) The five kinds of products i.e., Cloud Type (CLT), Cloud Phase (CLP), Cloud Top Height (CTH), Quantitative Rainfall-Rate Estimation (QPE), and Tropopause Folding Depth (TFTP_Z_depth), have different performances in the case of severe convective weathers in Ningxia. Among them, CLT and CLP have good availability, making it possible to determine the type of cloud more accurately. However, both CTH and QPE have large errors and tend to be smaller, so they need to be revised in conjunction with other means. The relationship between CTT or TFTP_Z_depth products and recent severe precipitation is obvious. The high value of CTH is conducive to the occurrence of heavy precipitation but is not a necessary condition. Overall, the FY-4A satellite has certain usability and reference in severe convective weather in Ningxia, which can provide better data support for convective weather discrimination and artificial influence on weather operation.

Key words: FY-4A satellite, short-time severe precipitation, applicability analysis, statistical analysis, Ningxia

邵建,张肃诏,陈敏,李强,郑友炯,程瑶,马宁. FY-4A卫星在宁夏短时强降水中的适用性研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(2): 163-172.

SHAO Jian,ZHANG Suzhao,CHEN Min,LI Qiang,ZHENG Youjiong,CHENG Yao,MA Ning. Application of FY-4A satellite data in short-time severe precipitation of Ningxia[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(2): 163-172.

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产品	英文缩写	调取参数及产品	最小分辨率
云相态	CLP	CLP（Cloud Phase，云相态，无单位）	4 km 1 km	① 60 min ② 15 min ③ 不定时
云类型	CLT	CLT（Cloud Type，云类型，无单位）
云顶高度	CTH	CTH（Cloud Top Height，云顶高，km）
降水估计	QPE	Precipitation（Quantitative Rainfall Rate Estimation，定量降水估测，mm）
对流层顶折叠检测	TFP	TFTP_Z_depth（Tropopause folding uppermost height，对流层折叠最深深度，km）

产品定义	取值范围	无云	暖水云或液态（水）	过冷水云或过冷液态	混合云或混合态	冰云或固态（冰）	卷云	多层云	不确定	太空	填充值	无云
云类型CLT	数值	0	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	126	127	0
云类型CLT	占比/%	11.09	24.46	6.96	54.6	0.72	1.11	0.84	0	0	0	11.09
云相态CLP	数值	0	1	2	3	4	-	-	-	126	127	0
云相态CLP	占比/%	7.99	14.11	15.52	60.12	2.21	-	-	-	0	0	7.99

云属	是否可降水	常见云底高度范围/m	云属	是否可降水	常见云底高度范围/m
积云	否	600~2000	高层云	是	2500~4500
积雨云	是	600~2000	高积云	否	2500~4500
层积云	是	600~2500	卷云	否	4500~10000
层云	否	50~800	卷层云	否	4500~8000
雨层云	是	600~2000	卷积云	否	4500~8000

	人工观测云底高度均值	探空估算云高均值	CTH观测值				相对误差				绝对误差
	人工观测云底高度均值	探空估算云高均值	最小值平均	最大值平均	平均值		与低值估算差	与高值估算差	与均值估算差		与低值估算差	与高值估算差	与均值估算差
对比值	1498	9189	2355	8905	6005		-6834	-284	-3183		6894	665	3224

绝对误差统计区间	与低值估算差	与高值估算差	与均值估算差
≤500 m	0.00	53.45	6.90
500~1000 m	17.15	22.41	15.17
1000~2000 m	10.10	24.14	13.74
2000~3000 m	5.17	0.00	22.71
>3000 m	67.58	0.00	41.48

FY-4A卫星在宁夏短时强降水中的适用性研究

Application of FY-4A satellite data in short-time severe precipitation of Ningxia

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	QPE相对偏差		QPE绝对误差
	15 min	1 h	15 min	1 h
最大值/mm	2.45	9.50	25.27	76.20
最小值/mm	－25.27	－76.20	0.11	0.88
平均值/mm	－4.09	－16.79	4.12	16.88
偏差偏小占比/%	99.28	98.77	-	-
偏差偏小占比/%	0.72	1.23	-	-
绝对误差值与大值比小于10%的占比/%	-	-	7.55	11.32
绝对误差值与大值比小于20%的占比/%	-	-	30.19	30.19
绝对误差值与大值比小于30%的占比/%	-	-	56.60	52.83

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