关川河上游水沙变化特征及其对降水和水保措施的响应

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.11.06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为进一步探讨降水量和水土保持措施对径流泥沙的影响，深入了解黄河中小河流水沙变化驱动因素，采用M-K检验、Morlet小波、线性回归和结构方程模型等方法，对1957—2021年关川河上游降水量和水土保持措施面积变化及其对径流泥沙的作用机理和过程进行了研究。结果表明：年降水量呈不显著减少趋势（P>0.05），径流模数和输沙模数呈显著减少趋势（P<0.05），水土保持措施面积呈增加趋势。径流模数、输沙模数对降水量的响应由强转弱，对水土保持措施的响应逐渐增强；降水量和水土保持措施影响水沙变化的关键路径是“水土保持措施面积→径流模数”，其次是“水土保持措施面积→径流→输沙模数”；再次是“降水量→径流模数”，最后是“降水量→径流模数→输沙模数”；降水量对水沙变化的总效应分别为0.42和0.38，水土保持措施面积对水沙变化的总效应则分别为-0.72和-0.65，影响流域水沙变化的主要因素是水土保持措施面积，次要因素为降水量。

关键词: 水沙变化, 水土保持措施, 结构方程模型, 关川河上游

Abstract:

In order to further explore the influence of precipitation and soil and water conservation measures on runoff sediment, and to gain an in-depth understanding of the driving factors of water and sand changes in small and medium-sized rivers of the Yellow River, M-K test, Morlet wavelet, linear regression and structural equation modeling were used to study the changes in precipitation and the area of soil and water conservation measures in the upper Guanchuan River from 1957-2021, as well as their the mechanism and process of action were studied. The results showed that annual precipitation showed a non-significant decreasing trend (P >0.05), runoff modulus and sand transport modulus showed a significant decreasing trend (P<0.05), and the area of soil and water conservation measures showed an increasing trend. The response of runoff modulus and sand transport modulus to precipitation got weakened, and the response to soil and water conservation measures was gradually strengthened; the key path of precipitation and soil and water conservation measures affecting the change of water and sand was “area of soil and water conservation measures→runoff modulus”, followed by “area of soil and water conservation measures→runoff→sand transport modulus”, then “precipitation→runoff modulus”, and finally “precipitation→runoff modulus→sand transport modulus”. The total effect of precipitation on water and sand change is 0.42 and 0.38 respectively, while the total effect of soil and water conservation measures on water and sand change is -0.72 and -0.65 respectively. The main factor affecting water and sand change in the watershed is the area of soil and water conservation measures, and the secondary factor is the amount of precipitation.

Key words: changes in water and sediment, soil and water conservation measures, structural equation model, upper Guanchuan River

王晓雨, 马瑞, 张富, 胡彦婷, 王玲莉, 蒋承洋, 陈素娥. 关川河上游水沙变化特征及其对降水和水保措施的响应[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(11): 1765-1775.

WANG Xiaoyu, MA Rui, ZHANG Fu, HU Yanting, WANG Lingli, JIANG Chengyang, CHEN Su’e. Characteristics of water and sand changes in the upper Guanchuan River and its response to precipitation and water conservation measures[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(11): 1765-1775.

图/表 13

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

表1

表2

不同时段年降水量与径流模数、输沙模数相关关系"

相关关系	时段（年份）	模型	R	R²	F	Sig.
降水量（x₁）-径流模数（y₁）	Ⅰ（1957—1980年）	$y 1 = 64.69 x 1 - 7885.79$	0.703	0.471	21.479	0.000^**
	Ⅱ（1981—2000年）	$y 1 = 46.03 x 1 - 8798.39$	0.674	0.454	14.976	0.001^**
	Ⅲ（2001—2021年）	$y 1 = 2.13 x 1 + 1306.18$	0.108	0.012	0.224	0.641
降水量（x₂）-输沙模数（y₂）	Ⅰ（1957—1980年）	$y 2 = 14.59 x 2 - 1625.89$	0.549	0.302	9.511	0.005^**
	Ⅱ（1981—2000年）	$y 2 = 12.59 x 2 - 2374.10$	0.596	0.356	9.933	0.006^**
	Ⅲ（2001—2021年）	$y 2 = 1.16 x 2 - 204.98$	0.296	0.088	1.825	0.193
径流模数（y₁）-输沙模数（y₂）	Ⅰ（1957—1980年）	$y 2 = 0.25 y 1 - 405.99$	0.881	0.775	75.951	0.000^**
	Ⅱ（1981—2000年）	$y 2 = 0.29 y 1 - 148.01$	0.941	0.885	138.919	0.000^**
	Ⅲ（2001—2021年）	$y 2 = 0.14 y 1 - 57.51$	0.718	0.515	20.165	0.000^**

表2

表3

不同时段水土保持措施量和径流模数、输沙模数相关关系"

相关关系	时段（年份）	模型	R	R²	F	Sig.
水土保持措施面积（x₂）-径流模数（y₁）	Ⅰ（1957—1980年）	$y 1 = - 27.95 x 2 + 21337.21$	0.202	0.041	0.939	0.343
	Ⅱ（1981—2000年）	$y 1 = - 10.29 x 2 + 15914.73$	0.398	0.158	3.385	0.082
	Ⅲ（2001—2021年）	$y 1 = - 7.40 x 2 + 10519.78$	0.673	0.454	15.771	0.001^**
水土保持措施面积（x₂）-输沙模数（y₂）	Ⅰ（1957—1980年）	$y 2 = - 6.38 x 2 + 4966.52$	0.160	0.026	0.579	0.455
	Ⅱ（1981—2000年）	$y 2 = - 1.445 x 2 + 3661.78$	0.181	0.033	0.067	0.446
	Ⅲ（2001—2021年）	$y 2 = - 1.57 x 2 - 2024.07$	0.717	0.514	20.059	0.000^**

表3

表4

表5

图7

表6

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特征值	Ⅰ（1957—1980年）	Ⅱ（1981—2000年）	Ⅲ（2001—2021年）
降水量/mm	424.1	418.5	389.9
径流模数/（m³·km^-2·a^-1）	19551.10	10465.21	2153.30
输沙模数/（t·km^-2·a^-1）	4558.80	2896.92	247.64

变量间的关系	路径系数	P
降水量→径流模数	0.417	0.000^***
水土保持措施面积→径流模数	-0.720	0.000^***
径流模数→输沙模数	0.993	0.000^***
降水量→输沙模数	-0.039	0.491
水土保持措施面积→输沙模数	0.062	0.402