气象干旱变化特征及其对粮食产量的影响——以甘肃武威市为例

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.02.32

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

干旱是甘肃武威市致灾最严重灾害天气。利用甘肃武威市1960—2019年降水资料和1970—2019年粮食产量资料,运用统计学方法分析了武威市气象干旱和粮食产量的变化特征以及干旱与粮食产量的关系。结果表明：（1）春旱、春末夏初旱、伏旱频数的空间变化比较一致,均为北部荒漠区多于绿洲平原区,绿洲平原区多于南部山区。（2）春旱、夏初旱和伏旱年代频数变化不一致,春旱凉州、民勤呈增加趋势,古浪、天祝及全市呈减少趋势;夏初旱凉州、古浪无变化,民勤、天祝及全市呈减少趋势;伏旱凉州无变化,民勤、古浪呈减少趋势,天祝及全市呈增加趋势;随干旱等级的加重各类干旱频数总体上呈增加趋势。（3）粮食产量（小麦、玉米和总粮食）随年和年代呈显著增加趋势,气象产量的年变化没有明显的规律性,波动性较大;气象产量年代变化呈先增加后减少再增加趋势。气象产量与各类干旱年代频数基本表现为负相关,气象产量与夏初旱频数的相关性水平显著,与其他干旱相关性均不显著。

关键词: 干旱灾害, 变化特征, 粮食产量, 武威市

Abstract:

Drought is a serious concern in the worst disaster weather in Wuwei, Gansu Province. Using precipitation data from 1960 to 2019 and grain yield data from 1970 to 2019 in Wuwei City of Gansu Province, variation characteristics of meteorological drought and grain yield, and the relationship between drought and grain yield was analyzed by statistical method in Wuwei City. The results showed that (1) spatial variation of frequency of spring drought, early summer drought and midsummer drought was consistent. Drought occurred more frequently in the northern desert area than in the oasis plain area, and that were more common in the oasis plain area than in the southern mountain area. (2) the frequency of spring drought, early summer drought and midsummer drought was not consistent. The frequency of spring drought increased in Liangzhou and Minqin, but showed a decreasing trend in Gulang, Tianzhu and the whole city. Eearly summer drought did not change in Liangzhou and Gulang, but decreased in Minqin, Tianzhu and the whole city. Midsummer droughts showed no change in Liangzhou, but decreased in Minqin and Gulang, and increased in Tianzhu and the whole city. Frequency of a variety of drought showed an increasing trend with increasing of drought grade. Extreme drought frequency was the most, and light drought took second place on spring drought. Extreme drought frequency was the most, and heavy drought took second place on early summer drought. Medium drought frequency was the most, extreme drought took second place on midsummer drought. (3) the grain production (wheat, maize, and total food) increased significantly with year and age. The annual variation of meteorological production had no obvious regularity, and had a great volatility. The age change of meteorological production increased first, then decreased and then increased. The meteorological yield was basically negatively correlated with ages frequency of various drought. The correlation between meteorological yield and frequency of early summer drought was significant, but the correlations with other droughts were not significant. Meteorological yields were lower in age of more drought frequencies, but meteorological yields were higher in age of less drought frequencies. It indicated that drought was one of the important factors restricting the abundance of grain.

Key words: drought disaster, change characteristics, grain production, Wuwei City

丁文魁,李兴宇,杨晓玲,马中华,李岩瑛. 气象干旱变化特征及其对粮食产量的影响——以甘肃武威市为例[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(2): 656-664.

DING Wenkui,LI Xingyu,YANG Xiaoling,MA Zhonghua,LI Yanying. Drought characteristics and effects on grain production in Wuwei, Gansu Province[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(2): 656-664.

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地名	春旱		夏初旱		伏旱
地名	倾向率/[a·(10a)^-1]	趋势系数	倾向率/[a·(10a)^-1]	趋势系数	倾向率/[a·(10a)^-1]	趋势系数
凉州	0.314	0.275	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
民勤	0.343	0.586^***	-0.257	-0.362^*	-0.029	-0.051
古浪	-0.400	-0.837^***	0.000	0.000	-0.029	-0.039
天祝	-0.371	-0.594^***	-0.229	-0.828^***	0.486	0.516^***
全市	-0.029	-0.084	-0.121	-0.280	0.107	0.226

	粮食产量			气象产量
	小麦	玉米	总粮食	小麦	玉米	总粮食
均值/(kg·hm^-2)	4333.08	6587.28	4603.8	3.75	1.92	-0.28
倾向率/[kg·hm^-2·(10a)^-1]	856.54	1723.1	1256.5	6.13	8.67	5.34
趋势系数	0.974^***	0.977^***	0.978^***	0.036	0.044	0.033

年代	粮食产量/(kg·hm^-2)			气象产量/(kg·hm^-2)
年代	小麦	玉米	总粮食	小麦	玉米	总粮食
1970	-1782.93	-3419.23	-2186.90	-23.58	-33.56	-19.34
1980	-669.18	-1523.98	-1298.00	29.06	2.45	21.76
1990	-105.33	36.62	-318.50	2.33	33.17	4.96
2000	868.66	2334.09	1349.35	-33.94	-13.99	-34.22
2010	1688.79	2572.48	2454.07	26.13	11.93	26.83

	春旱		夏初旱		伏旱
	相关系数	关系式	相关系数	关系式	相关系数	关系式
小麦	-0.058	y=-1.74x+8.33	-0.894^***	y=-26.93x+74.64	0.072	y=1.49x-3.27
玉米	0.064	y=1.72x-3.74	-0.802^**	y=-21.52x+62.81	-0.621	y=-11.35x+51.16
总粮食	-0.162	y=-4.51x+12.40	-0.862^**	y=-23.96x+62.81	-0.023	y=-0.44x+2.29