干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (3): 610-617.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2021.03.03

• 水资源及其利用 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于SWAT模型的开都河流域水文干旱变化特征及驱动因子分析

宋玉鑫1(),左其亭1,2,3(),马军霞1,3   

  1. 1.郑州大学水利科学与工程学院,河南 郑州 450001
    2.郑州大学水科学研究中心,河南 郑州 450001
    3.郑州市水资源与水环境重点实验室,河南 郑州 450001
  • 收稿日期:2020-10-10 修回日期:2020-12-22 出版日期:2021-05-15 发布日期:2021-06-17
  • 通讯作者: 左其亭
  • 作者简介:宋玉鑫（1995-）,男,硕士,主要从事水文学及水资源研究. E-mail: zzusyx@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(U1803241);国家自然科学基金项目(51779230)

Variation and dynamic drivers of drought in Kaidu River Basin based on the SWAT model

SONG Yuxin1(),ZUO Qiting1,2,3(),MA Junxia1,3   

  1. 1. School of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, Henan, China
    2. Center for Water Science Research, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, Hennan, China
    3. Zhengzhou Key Laboratory of Water Resource and Environment, Zhengzhou 450001, Henan, China
  • Received:2020-10-10 Revised:2020-12-22 Online:2021-05-15 Published:2021-06-17
  • Contact: Qiting ZUO

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摘要：

以开都河流域为例,以SWAT（Soil and Water Assessment Tool）分布式水文模型和标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）为基础,对干旱变化特征进行识别。利用贝叶斯动态线性方程（BDL）模型研究南方涛动（SOI）等气候驱动因子对区域季节性干旱的影响。结果表明:1965—2016年开都河流域的干旱主要集中于冬、春季;在不同季节,流域干旱的变化趋势也有所不同,但趋势并不明显,仅在秋冬季可以检测出显著下降的趋势;不同季节的SPEI指数变化受降水、潜在蒸散发等气候因素的响应较快,多在0值上下波动,导致其变化周期较短,多集中在2~4 a;气候指数对流域干湿变化的影响随着时间的推移而转变,对不同季节的影响也有所不同。

关键词: SWAT模型, 动态线性模型, 标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）, 开都河流域

Abstract:

This study used Kaidu River Basin as an example to construct a soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) distributed hydrological model and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as the basis to identify variation in drought. Subsequently, the Bayesian Dynamic Linear Equation (BDL) model was used to determine the impact of climate driving factors, such as the Southern Oscillation (SOI), on regional seasonal drought. The results showed that the drought in the Kaidu River Basin from 1965 to 2016 was primarily concentrated in winter and spring. In different seasons, variation in the Kaidu basin was different, but most trends were not significant, and significant decreasing trends were only detected in autumn and winter. Changes in the SPEI index in different seasons were affected by climate factors, such as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and most of them fluctuated around 0, resulting in a short change cycle, mostly concentrated in 2-4 years. The impact of the climate index on drought variability changed over time, and the impact on different seasons was also different.

Key words: SWAT model, dynamic linear model, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), Kaidu River basin