干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2016, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5): 1132-1140.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2016.05.30

• 其他 • 上一篇    

基于GIS的雪崩对冰湖风险性评估——以喜马拉雅山科西河流域为例

张福存1, 李净2, 吴立宗3, 王卫东4   

  1. 1.西宁市测绘院,青海 西宁 810008;
    2.西北师范大学,甘肃 兰州 730070;
    3.中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃 兰州 730000;
    4.甘肃省测绘工程院,甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2014-12-30 修回日期:2015-04-17 出版日期:2016-09-15 发布日期:2025-12-01
  • 作者简介:张福存(1983-),男,工程师,注册测绘师,主要从事城市GIS相关工作. E-mail: zhangfcun@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    甘肃省自然基金项目“基于遥感技术的山区短长辐射平衡研究”(1308RJZA141);国家自然科学基金项目“典型冰碛湖水量平衡过程研究”(41261016)资助

GIS-based Assessment on Risk of Snow Avalanche to Glacial Lake:A Case Study in the Koshi River Basin,Himalayas

ZHANG Fu-cun1, LI Jing2, WU Li-zong3, WANG Wei-dong4   

  1. 1. Xining Institute of Surveying and Mapping,Xining 810008,Qinghai,China;
    2. Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China;
    3. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China;
    4. Gansu Province Engineering Institute of Surveying and Mapping,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China
  • Received:2014-12-30 Revised:2015-04-17 Published:2016-09-15 Online:2025-12-01

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摘要： 雪崩是冰湖风险性评估的因子之一,借鉴欧美发展起来的雪崩模型,在冰湖溃决洪水频发的喜马拉雅山地区开展雪崩对冰湖风险性评估研究具有重要意义。基于ICIMOD IKONOS DEM和Landsat-TM数据,利用GIS方法提取了研究区雪崩形成的海拔、平面曲率、坡度和地表覆盖类型等估算因子,根据Av=(Al+Fy)×S×Rg模型估算了研究区潜在雪崩形成区域,并应用GIS方法和α-β模型估算了雪崩的传播路径。结果表明:潜在雪崩不易形成的“低”值多分布在谷底及地表覆盖类型为密林的山坡上,而“高”、“较高”值多分布在坡度为30°～50°、地表类型以裸岩或草地为主的山坡和冰川上,这些分布符合雪崩形成的客观实际;分析判断发现研究区内“高”值区域,也就是潜在雪崩形成区共有98处,其中有10处能够进入冰湖,对这些冰湖的稳定性造成风险,这意味着在分析研究区所有冰湖的溃决风险性时,只有受到潜在雪崩影响的9个冰湖需要考虑雪崩因素,其余冰湖在冰湖溃决诱因筛选中无需考虑雪崩因子。

关键词: GIS, 雪崩, 形成区, 冰湖, 风险性评估, 科西河流域, 喜马拉雅山

Abstract: Snow avalanche is one of the factors of assessing glacial lake risk,and it is necessary to research the risk assessment of glacial lakes by using snow avalanche models developed by Europe and America for the Himalayas where flood caused by glacial lake outburst occurs frequently. In this paper,based on ICIMOD IKONOS DEM and Landsat-TM data,the factors attributed to avalanche formation,such as the altitude,plan curvature,slope and land cover,were extracted by using the GIS means,and then the PATAs (Potential Avalanche Trigger Areas) in the study area were assessed,according to Av=(Al+Fy)×S×Rg model. In addition,the snow avalanche run-out distance was estimated by using GIS methods and α-β model. According to the estimated results,the "low" values were mainly distributed over the valley floor and slope with dense forest,where the generation probability of potential snow avalanche was very low,while the“high”and“relatively high”values were mainly distributed over the glaciers or hillsides with slope of 30°-50°,full of rock or grass,and probability of generating potential snow avalanche. The results also showed that there were 98 PATAS in the study area,ten of them could spread into the glacial lakes,and the stability risk of these glacial lakes was resulted in. On which potential snow avalanche should be considered as one of the factors inducing the outburst of only 9 glacial lakes in assessing the glacial lake risk in the study area.

Key words: GIS, snow avalanche, avalanche trigger area, glacial lake, risk assessment, Koshi River Basin, Himalayas