基于水供给服务供需关系的伊犁河谷生态管理分区

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.07.14

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 水供给服务维系着人类社会的生存与发展，是推进中国生态文明建设和流域高质量发展的关键。以新疆伊犁河谷为研究区，基于统计年鉴数据和遥感数据，利用水供给服务供需模型、水资源安全指数（FSI）、供需匹配等方法，分析研究区2005—2020年水供给服务供需的平衡特征及其匹配状况。结果表明：（1）伊犁河谷水资源安全指数呈“升-降”波动，供需平衡呈现“一般赤字-一般盈余-赤字持续”三阶段演变。空间分异显著：伊宁市、伊宁县、霍城县、察布查尔锡伯自治县、新源县五县市持续赤字；尼勒克县、特克斯县、昭苏县三县及霍尔果斯市（2020年）维持盈余，其中2010年出现阶段性盈余拐点。（2）水供给服务的供需匹配呈现三种主导类型：“低供给-高需求”“低供给-低需求”和“高供给-低需求”。供需匹配类型空间分布具有东、中、西梯度分异，同模式县市呈现空间集聚与产业趋同特征，且受区域经济结构驱动显著，具体表现为：生态本底优越的畜牧区维持高供给能力，而耕地密集型农业区持续面临高需求压力。基于上述研究结果，划定出生态涵养区、生态调控区、生态改良区等生态管理分区以促进流域生态系统可持续管理及水资源高效利用。

关键词: 水供给服务, 供需关系, 生态分区, 伊犁河谷

Abstract:

Water supply services sustain the survival and development of human society and are key to promoting the construction of China’s ecological civilization and the high-quality development of river basins. As a significant component of ecosystem services, it is central to ensuring the stability of watershed ecosystems and promoting the construction of ecological civilization in arid and semi-arid regions. This study focuses on the Ili River Valley in Xinjiang, analyzing the equilibrium characteristics of water supply and demand from 2005 to 2020. Using statistical yearbook and remote-sensing data, we apply models of water supply services, the water resources security index (FSI), and supply-demand matching analysis. The results indicate: (1) The FSI of the Ili River Valley fluctuates from “rising to falling,” and the supply-demand balance exhibits a three-stage evolution from “general deficit to general surplus to deficit persistence.” The spatial difference is significant: five counties and cities continue to deficit (i.e., Yining City, Yining County, Huocheng County, Qapqal Xibe Autonomous County, and Xinyuan County), while three counties and one city (i.e., Nilek County, Tekes County, Zhaosu County, and the city of Horgos [2020]) maintain the surplus that appeared in 2010 during the surplus inflection point. (2) The match between water supply and demand presents three dominant types: “low supply-high demand,” “low supply-low demand,” and “high supply-low demand.” The spatial distribution of supply-demand matching types is differentiated by gradients in the east, middle, and west. Counties and cities with the same matching types display spatial agglomeration and industrial convergence. They are significantly driven by the regional economic structure, which manifests in the following ways: the livestock areas with superior ecological fundamentals maintain a high supply capacity, while the arable land-intensive agricultural areas continue to face high demand pressure. To support regional sustainable development, this study analyzes county-level water supply-demand matching in the Ili River Valley, considering socioeconomic and natural geographic factors. Based on the analysis, ecological management zones—conservation, control, and improvement—are defined to promote integrated development, ecosystem sustainability, and efficient water resource use.

Key words: water supply services, supply-demand relationship, ecological zoning, Ili River Valley

胡继然, 姚娟, 熊长江. 基于水供给服务供需关系的伊犁河谷生态管理分区[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(7): 1313-1322.

HU Jiran, YAO Juan, XIONG Changjiang. Ecological management zoning in the Ili River Valley based on supply and demand of water supply services[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(7): 1313-1322.

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