干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2022 , Vol. 39 >Issue 3: 801 - 809

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2022.03.13

Combined weight method based on game theory for flood risk assessment in the Wuwei Region

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  • 1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China
    2. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China

Received date: 2021-07-31

  Revised date: 2021-10-28

  Online published: 2022-05-30

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Abstract

Floods are the most frequent natural disasters in the world, and the Chinese region has shown the most significant increase in flood risk worldwide. Based on the frequency of flash floods in Wuwei City, Gansu Province, a flood risk assessment method combined with subjective and objective weights and based on game theory was adopted and GIS technology was applied. Seven indicators were selected to construct a flood risk assessment index system from three aspects: disaster dangers, disaster environment sensitivity, and suffering flexibility. Then, the risk zoning chart of flood disaster in Wuwei was drawn, which showed that the overall flood risk level of Wuwei City is low and flood risk shows a decreasing distribution characteristic from southwest to northeast. The results are in good agreement with historic flood event data in which the highest risk area accounts only for 4.94% of the total area, which is concentrated at the junction of Liangzhou District and Gulang County and southwest of Tianzhu County. The sum of the lowest risk area and the lower risk area accounts for 43.84% of the total area, which is concentrated in the eastern desert area of Minqin County. The main sources of flood risk vary among counties in Wuwei City. The risk of disaster-causing factors presents a belt-like distribution characteristic that decreases from southwest to northeast. The highest risk areas are distributed mainly in the Qilian Mountains of Tianzhu County, and the lowest risk areas are concentrated in lower reaches of the Shiyang River in the northeast. The distribution of the disaster environment sensitivity is relatively uniform except for the Qilian Mountains with higher stability. There are obvious differences in the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, and the vulnerability at the junction of Liangzhou County and Gulang County is much higher than that of other regions. The entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are used for comparison with the game theory combination weighting method, which demonstrates that the combination weighting method of game theory can reduce the subjectivity of the single weighting method, improve the accuracy of the flood risk map, and provide valuable information for flood management.

Key words： flood disaster; risk zoning; analytic hierarchy process; game theory; entropy method; Wuwei Region

Cite this article

SU Guangquan,LYU Haishen,ZHU Yonghua,CHEN Tingxing,HUA Jiacheng . Combined weight method based on game theory for flood risk assessment in the Wuwei Region[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022 , 39(3) : 801 -809 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.03.13

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