干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2022 , Vol. 39 >Issue 3: 708 - 722

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2022.03.05

Changing precipitation characteristics in the Yellow River Basin in the last 60 years and tendency prediction for next 30 years

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  • Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Resource and Environment of Gansu Province, Institute of Green Development for the Yellow River Drainage Basin, Research and Development Center of Earth System Model, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China

Received date: 2021-11-11

  Revised date: 2022-01-13

  Online published: 2022-05-30

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Abstract

The climate of the Yellow River Basin has distinctly changed in the past 60 years, which significantly impacts its surface hydrological and ecological processes. In this study, the spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation in the Yellow River Basin in the past 60 years (1961-2018) were analyzed using in-situ precipitation observations in this basin. Future precipitation trends for the next 30 years (2018-2047) in the Yellow River Basin were projected using outputs from the SSP245 scenario in the CMIP6 model and statistical methods. Results show that there are significant annual, inter-annual, and inter-decadal variations in precipitation in the Yellow River Basin, with a significant oscillation cycle of 2-4 years. For the whole basin, annual and seasonal precipitation is basically isotropic at an inter-annual scale but significant areas of inter-annual variability anomalies are different. Spatial anomalies of precipitation are opposite in the cold season (winter-spring) and the warm season (summer-autumn), with a decrease in precipitation influenced by summer monsoon activity and an increase in precipitation influenced by the winter monsoon. There has been an increasing trend of 20.96 mm·(10a)-1 in annual precipitation in the Yellow River source area for the past 60 years, and expected annual precipitation will continue to increase at 11.53-17.62 mm·(10a)-1 over the next 30 years. Annual precipitation in the Hetao area of the Yellow River Basin has continued to increase in the past 60 years at a rate of 2.71 mm·(10a)-1, but the rate of future increase has slowed to approximately 0.52 mm·(10a)-1. In lower reaches of the Yellow River, a decreasing trend in precipitation in the past 60 years is presented and will continue to decrease at a rate of 5.46 mm·(10a)-1.

Key words： Yellow River Basin; precipitation variability characteristics; periodic overlay extrapolation; CMIP6

Cite this article

WANG Chenghai,YANG Jintao,YANG Kai,ZHANG Feimin,ZHANG Shengning,LI Kechen,YANG Yi . Changing precipitation characteristics in the Yellow River Basin in the last 60 years and tendency prediction for next 30 years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022 , 39(3) : 708 -722 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.03.05

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