干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2021 , Vol. 38 >Issue 6: 1650 - 1658

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2021.06.16

Weather and Climate

Prediction of reference crop evapotranspiration in Xilinguole grassland based on multivariate time series model

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  • College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, Inner Mongolia, China

Received date: 2021-03-01

  Revised date: 2021-09-01

  Online published: 2021-11-29

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Abstract

This study was performed to explore the influence of various meteorological factors on reference crop evapotranspiration and its prediction in Xilinguole grassland. The correlation between the meteorological data of six national ground meteorological stations in Xilinguole grassland of Inner Mongolia and the calculated PM-ET0 was analyzed. A multivariate time series controlled autoregressive (CAR) model was used as a basis for establishing a CAR-ET0 model in accordance with the order of correlation coefficient. Results showed that the correlation coefficient between meteorological factors and PM-ET0 decreased from a desert steppe area to a typical steppe area and a meadow steppe area. The correlation of daily minimum temperature, average temperature, and PM-ET0 was the smallest, whereas the correlation between average sunshine hours and PM-ET0 was the largest, which was 0.7293. In meadow and desert steppes, the accuracy of CAR-ET0 increased when sunshine and temperature were used as inputs. Wind speed was also required as the third factor of the model in a typical grassland area. The verification of model prediction accuracy revealed that the prediction accuracy of the CAR-ET0 model was generally higher than that of HS-ET0 and PMT-ET0 models. Combined with correlation analysis, the meteorological factors with a significant impact on local reference crop evapotranspiration could be obtained. Thus, this study could provide a theoretical basis for designing a meteorological monitoring layout, determining reference crop evapotranspiration, and conducting ecological restoration in Xilinguole grassland.

Key words： reference crop evapotranspiration; grey correlation analysis; multivariable time series model; Xilingol grassland

Cite this article

FENG Zhuangzhuang,SHI Haibin,MIAO Qingfeng,LI Jiannan,SUN Wei,DAI Liping . Prediction of reference crop evapotranspiration in Xilinguole grassland based on multivariate time series model[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021 , 38(6) : 1650 -1658 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2021.06.16

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