Ecology and Environment

Multi-scenario simulation prediction of ecological space in the Fenhe River Basin using the FLUS model

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  • 1. Research Center for Scientific Development of Fenhe River Valley, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong 030619, Shanxi, China
    2. School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, Shaanxi, China
    3. Department of Management, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong 030619, Shanxi, China

Received date: 2021-01-05

  Revised date: 2021-03-14

  Online published: 2021-08-03

Abstract

Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of watershed ecological space was conducted for the Fenhe River Basin to provide reference and guidance for the coordinated and sustainable development of watershed production-living-ecological space. An ecological-economic-social model was used with land use type data for 2015 and 2018, and 20 drivers were selected. The accuracy and effectiveness of the future land use simulation model was verified, and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and drivers of ecological change in the Fenhe River Basin were simulated and predicted for 2024 and 2030 under four scenarios: production space priority, living space priority, ecological space priority, and production-living-ecological space coordination. We found that the ecological space of the Fenhe River Basin presented two types of evolution trends from 2018 to 2030. It showed linear growth under the ecological space priority and production-living-ecological space coordination scenarios, with increases of 5.92% and 5.13%, respectively, while there was a linear decrease under the production space priority and living space priority scenarios, with decreases of 9.40% and 2.20%, respectively, and the proportion of production space, living space, and ecological space land structure maintained a ratio of 4:1:5. In the spatiotemporal pattern, the ecological space was located in the marginal mountainous area of the watershed, and the production space and living space were located in the core basin. The ecological space, production space, and living space as a whole present successively nested pattern characteristics. The range of change in the core area of the ecological space was small, and the change in the marginal area was significant. The evolution trend of ecological space under the production-living-ecological space coordination scenario and ecological space priority scenario was similar in 2024 and 2030. Affected by the natural-social development trend of the watershed and national policies, the available reserve land resources are predicted to be limited in the future, and the ecological space change of the watershed is predicted to be small, but there are also hidden threats. Therefore, we suggest strictly following the basic principles of three lines, the permanent basic farmland protection red line, ecological protection red line, and urban development boundary line, reasonably planning the reserve land resources of the production-living-ecological space, actively governing and conserving the ecological space edge areas (ecologically sensitive areas), restricting the development of core areas, and promoting the scientific development of watersheds.

Cite this article

SU Yingqing,LIU Geng,ZHAO Jingbo,NIU Junjie,ZHANG Enyue,GUO Ligang,LIN Fei . Multi-scenario simulation prediction of ecological space in the Fenhe River Basin using the FLUS model[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021 , 38(4) : 1152 -1161 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2021.04.27

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