干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2025 , Vol. 42 >Issue 4: 622 - 636

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2025.04.05

Land and Water Resources

Research on the alert area of Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake outburst floods in the Karakoram Mountains

  • LUO Xi ,
  • Alimujiang KASIMU ,
  • LIU Ying ,
  • BAO Anming ,
  • YUAN Ye ,
  • YU Tao
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  • 1. College of Geographic Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, Xinjiang, China
    2. Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Lake Environment and Resources in Arid Zone, Urumqi 830054, Xinjiang, China
    3. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
    4. Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System Application Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
    5. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received date: 2024-08-10

  Revised date: 2025-02-19

  Online published: 2025-04-10

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Abstract

The periodic outburst floods from the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake pose a severe threat to downstream areas. In the context of global warming, research on monitoring and early warning for the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake is particularly important. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the alert area for the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake outburst floods. The area changes and sudden drainage events of the lake were first analyzed using multi-source optical remote sensing data from 1990-2023. Then, the critical minimum drainage volume of the lake was calculated using an area-volume empirical formula and historical flood data. At the same time, the rationality of the alert area was verified through the relationship between the drainage volume and the net flood peak discharge established in this study. The results showed that the lake experienced 20 sudden drainage events over the past 34 years, 17 of which led to glacial lake outburst floods. The periods 1996-2009 and 2015-2019 were unstable, with repeated lake filling and draining. The alert area for the outburst floods of the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake is 1.046 km2, and the alert net flood peak discharge resulting from the sudden drainage is 418 m3·s-1. Although the lake area shows a decreasing trend, the risk of flood disasters triggered by the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake outburst floods does not necessarily decrease. The lake outburst flood, when superimposed on high basic runoff, can still threaten downstream areas. When the lake area approaches its alert area, it is necessary to monitor its changes closely and implement early warning measures in combination with the basic runoff at the hydrological station. The proposed alert lake area and its determination method may provide scientific support for early warning monitoring of the outburst flood of the Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake and offer guidance for early warning of flood disasters in the Yarkand River Basin.

Key words： glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF); early warning; area change; Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake; Karakoram Mountains

Cite this article

LUO Xi , Alimujiang KASIMU , LIU Ying , BAO Anming , YUAN Ye , YU Tao . Research on the alert area of Kyagar Glacier-dammed Lake outburst floods in the Karakoram Mountains[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025 , 42(4) : 622 -636 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.04.05

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