干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2023 , Vol. 40 >Issue 11: 1718 - 1728

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2023.11.02

Weather and Climate

Change characteristics and circulation anomaly analysis of cold wave in Ningxia over the past 60 years

  • Ying HUANG ,
  • Suyan WANG ,
  • Yang MA ,
  • Dai WANG ,
  • Wen ZHANG ,
  • Fan WANG
Expand
  • 1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agricultural in Dry Areas Regions, CMA, Yinchuan 750002, Ningxia, China
    2. Ningxia Key Lab for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction, Yinchuan 750002, Ningxia, China
    3. Ningxia Climate Center, Yingchuan 750002, Ningxia, China

Received date: 2023-02-17

  Revised date: 2023-05-16

  Online published: 2023-12-01

Fold

Abstract

Based on daily temperature observation data and reanalysis data of the geopotential height, sea level pressure, and wind field from 1961 to 2020, the characteristics of spatial and temporal change of cold waves, strong cold waves, and exceptionally strong cold waves lasting 24 h, 48 h, and 72 h were studied in Ningxia over the past 60 years. The causes of atmospheric circulation anomalies of cold waves were also revealed. The results show the following: (1) In the past 60 years, cold waves of different intensities and different durations in Ningxia consistently showed the distribution characteristics of “shifting eastwards and northwards.” (2) The cumulative frequencies of cold waves, strong cold waves, and exceptionally strong cold waves in the region accounted for 71.7%, 22.6%, and 5.7% of the total annual cold wave frequencies, respectively, among which cold waves dominated by process lasting 24 h and 48 h. The proportions of various durations for strong cold waves and exceptionally strong cold waves were equivalent. They mainly occured in October to April, during which the accumulated cold waves, strong cold waves, and exceptionally strong cold waves in the region accounted for 99%, 98%, and 95% of those throughout the year, and there was a decreasing trend from January to April and increasing trend from October to December. (3) In the past 60 years, the cold waves, strong cold waves, and exceptionally strong cold waves have been decreasing at a rate of 4.5, 2.8, and 0.18 per station every 10 years, respectively. Among them, the frequencies of waves of 24 h and 48 h as short durations were decreasing, but that of waves of 72 h as a long duration was decreasing. All types of cold waves decreased from the 1960s to the 1990s, reaching a minimum in the 1990s and increasing since the 2000s, with a sudden change around 1990. (4) Under the influence of global warming, the atmospheric circulation showed completely the opposite distribution characteristics between before and after the sudden change of cold waves in Ningxia. The key systems influencing cold waves in Ningxia are consistent. When the blocking high pressure in the Ural Mountains was stronger, the East Asian trough was deeper, the west Pacific subtropical high was weaker, the western side of Lake Baikal was dominated by cyclonic circulation, and cold high pressure at the ground was active, this was conducive to the southward movement of cold air in middle and high latitudes, and more cold waves in Ningxia.

Key words： cold wave; evolutionary characteristics; atmospheric circulation; anomaly analysis; Ningxia

Cite this article

Ying HUANG , Suyan WANG , Yang MA , Dai WANG , Wen ZHANG , Fan WANG . Change characteristics and circulation anomaly analysis of cold wave in Ningxia over the past 60 years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023 , 40(11) : 1718 -1728 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.11.02

References

[1] Planchon O, Quénol H, Irimia L, et al. European cold wave during February 2012 and impacts in wine growing regions of Moldavia (Romania)[J]. Theoretical & Applied Climatology, 2015, 120(3-4): 469-478.
[2] 薛一波, 黄双燕, 张小啸, 等. 新疆2018年冬季雨雪风沙强降尘事件[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(5): 681-690.
[2] [Xue Yibo, Huang Shuangyan, Zhang Xiaoxiao, et al. Study on the strong winter airborne dustfall mixed rain and snow events in Xinjiang, China in 2018[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(5): 681-690.]
[3] 李东欢, 邹立维, 周天军. 全球1. 5 ℃温升背景下中国极端事件变化的区域模式预估[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(4): 446-457.
[3] [Li Donghuan, Zou Liwei, Zhou Tianjun. Changes of extreme indices over China in response to 1.5 ℃ warming projected by a regional climate model[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2017, 32(4): 446-457.]
[4] 丁一汇, 王遵娅, 宋亚芳, 等. 中国南方2008年1月罕见低温雨雪冰冻灾害发生的原因及其与气候变暖的关系[J]. 气象学报, 2008, 66(5): 808-825.
[4] [Ding Yihui, Wang Zunya, Song Yafang, et al. Causes of the unprecedented freezing disaster in January 2008 and its possible association with the global warming[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2008, 66(5): 808-825.]
[5] 陶诗言. 十年来我国对东亚寒潮的研究[J]. 气象学报, 1959, 30(3): 226-230.
[5] [Tao Shiyan. Research on East Asian cold wave in the past ten years[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1959, 30(3): 226-230.]
[6] 罗继, 代君梅, 杨虎, 等. 1971—2014年新疆区域寒潮气候特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2017, 34(2): 309-315.
[6] [Luo Ji, Dai Junmei, Yang Hu, et al. Climatic characteristics of cold wave in Xinjiang during the period of 1971-2014[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2017, 34(2): 309-315.]
[7] 康志明, 金荣花, 鲍媛媛. 1951—2006年期间我国寒潮活动特征分析[J]. 高原气象, 2010, 29(2): 420-428.
[7] [Kang Zhiming, Jin Ronghua, Bao Yuanyuan. Characteristic analysis of cold wave in China during the period of 1951-2006[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2010, 29(2): 420-428.]
[8] 周星妍, 朱伟军, 顾聪. 冬季北大西洋风暴轴异常对我国寒潮活动的可能影响[J]. 大气科学, 2015, 39(5): 978-990.
[8] [Zhou Xingyan, Zhu Weijun, Gu Cong. Possible influence of the variation of the northern Atlantic storm track on the activity of cold waves in China during winter[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 39(5): 978-990.]
[9] 万瑜, 曹兴, 窦新英, 等. 中天山北坡春季寒潮型暴雪致灾成因分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2015, 38(3): 478-486.
[9] [Wan Yu, Cao Xing, Dou Xinying, et al. Disaster-causes of a cold wave snowstorm in the north slope of middle Tianshan Mountains[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2015, 38(3): 478-486.]
[10] 王遵娅, 丁一汇. 近53年中国寒潮的变化特征及其可能原因[J]. 大气科学, 2006, 30(6): 1068-1076.
[10] [Wang Zunya, Ding Yihui. Climate change of the cold wave frequency of China in the last 53 years and the possible reasons[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2006, 30(6): 1068-1076.]
[11] 钱维宏, 张玮玮. 我国近46年来的寒潮时空变化与冬季增暖[J]. 大气科学, 2007, 31(6): 1266-1278.
[11] [Qian Weihong, Zhang Weiwei. Changes in cold wave events and warm winter in China during the last 46 years[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2007, 31(6): 1266-1278.]
[12] 魏凤英. 气候变暖背景下我国寒潮灾害的变化特征[J]. 自然科学进展, 2008, 18(3): 289-295.
[12] [Wei Fengying. The changing characteristics of cold wave disasters under climate warming[J]. Progress in Chinese Natural Sciences, 2008, 18(3): 289-295.]
[13] 林晶, 陈家金, 陈惠. 近45年福建省寒潮的时空分布及对农业生产的影响[J]. 亚热带农业研究, 2007, 3(1): 57-59.
[13] [Lin Jin, Chen Jiajin, Chen Hui. Spatiotemporal distribution of cold current and its impacts on agricultural production in Fujian Province in the recent 45 years[J]. Subtropical Agriculture Research, 2007, 3(1): 57-59.]
[14] 阎琦, 陆井龙, 田莉, 等. 1971—2011年辽宁寒潮时空分布特征[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2014, 30(4): 63-69.
[14] [Yan Qi, Lu Jinglong, Tian Li, et al. Spatial and temporal distributions of cold wave from 1971 to 2011 in Liaoning Province[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2014, 30(4): 63-69.]
[15] 胡春丽, 李辑, 郭婷婷, 等. 1961—2016年东北地区冬季寒潮事件变化特征及其对区域气候变暖的响应[J]. 冰川冻土, 2021, 43(6): 1755-1763.
[15] [Hu Chunli, Li Ji, Guo Tingting, et al. Variation characteristics of winter cold wave events in Northeast China and its response to regional warming during 1961-2016[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2021, 43(6): 1755-1763.]
[16] 李红英, 林纾, 王云鹏, 等. 1961—2017年京津冀地区寒潮活动特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(1): 41-48.
[16] [Li Hongying, Lin Shu, Wang Yunpeng, et al. Characteristics of cold wave activities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1961 to 2017[J]. Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40(1): 41-48.]
[17] Meral D. The large-scale environment of the European 2012 high-impact cold wave: Prolonged upstream and downstream atmospheric blocking[J]. Weather, 2017, 72(10): 297-301.
[18] 张弛, 沈新勇, 张玲, 等. 一次寒潮过程中冷堆增强的动力原因分析[J]. 高原气象, 2021, 40(2): 394-402.
[18] [Zhang Chi, Shen Xinyong, Zhang Ling, et al. The dynamical cause of cold dome’s intensification in a cold wave process[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2021, 40(2): 394-402.]
[19] 虞越越, 严睿恺, 蔡鸣. 平流层大气质量环流脉冲事件与北半球冬季大陆尺度寒潮低温的次季节尺度预测[J]. 气象科技进展, 2021, 11(3): 92-102.
[19] [Yu Yueyue, Yan Ruikai, Cai Ming. Potential use of stratospheric meridional mass circulation signals in the sub-seasonal forecasts of continental-scale cold events in NH winter[J]. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 2021, 11(3): 92-102.]
[20] Jeong J H, Ho C H. Changes in occurrence of cold surges over East Asia in association with Arctic Oscillation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, 32(14): 256-257.
[21] 朱晨玉, 黄菲, 石运昊, 等. 中国近50年寒潮冷空气的时空特征及其与北极海冰的关系[J]. 中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版), 2014, 21(12): 12-20.
[21] [Zhu Chenyu, Huang Fei, Shi Yunhao, et al. Spatial-temporal patterns of the cold surge events in China in recent 50 years and its relationship with Arctic sea ice[J]. Periodical of Ocean University of China, 2014, 21(12): 12-20.]
[22] Ding Yihui, Liu Yanju, Liang Sujie, et al. Interdecadal variability of East Asian winter monsoon and links to global climate change[J]. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2014, 28(5): 693-713.
[23] 乔雪梅, 刘普幸. 中国北方地区寒潮时空特征及其成因分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2020, 42(2): 357-367.
[23] [Qiao Xuemei, Liu Puxing. The temporal and spatial characteristics and genesis of cold wave in northern China[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2020, 42(2): 357-367.]
[24] 刘美娇, 李颖, 孙美平. 1961—2018年河西走廊寒潮频次时空变化特征及其环流影响因素研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2020, 42(3): 801-811.
[24] [Liu Meijiao, Li Ying, Sun Meiping. Spatial-temporal variation of cold wave frequency and its influencing factors of circulation in Hexi Corridor during 1961-2018[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2020, 42(3): 801-811.]
[25] 唐孟琪, 曾刚. 近30多年中国东北地区春季寒潮的年代际变化及其可能原因[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2017, 22(4): 473-486.
[25] [Tang Mengqi, Zeng Gang. Decadal variability of spring cold wave across Northeast China in the past 30 years and its possible causes[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2017, 22(4): 473-486.]
[26] 陈豫英, 陈楠, 聂金鑫, 等. 2011年3月宁夏一次寒潮天气过程诊断[J]. 干旱气象, 2012, 30(1): 88-93.
[26] [Chen Yuying, Chen Nan, Nie Jinxin, et al. Diagnosis of a cold wave weather event in march 2011 in Ningxi[J]. Arid Meteorology, 2012, 30(1): 88-93.]
[27] 陈豫英, 陈楠, 邵建, 等. 2008年12月两次寒潮天气对比分析[J]. 气象, 2009, 35(11): 29-38.
[27] [Chen Yuying, Chen Nan, Shao Jian, et al. Comparative analyses of two cold wave processes in December 2008[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2009, 35(11): 29-38.]
[28] 周翠芳, 张广平, 杨海山. 宁夏冬季寒潮天气过程对比分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2009, 27(2): 142-147.
[28] [Zhou Cuifang, Zhang Guangping, Yang Haishan. Contrastive analysis of two cold wave weather processes in winter of Ningxia Region[J]. Arid Meteorology, 2009, 27(2): 142-147.]
[29] 冯建民. 宁夏天气预报手册[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2012.
[29] [Feng Jianmin. Ningxia Weather Forecast Manual[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2012.]
[30] 魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007.
[30] [Wei Fengying. Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2007.]
[31] 马力, 韦志刚, 李娴茹, 等. 2000年前后我国寒潮活动特征的比较分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2022, 44(6): 1757-1772.
[31] [Ma Li, Wei Zhigang, Li Xianru, et al. Comparative analysis of the cold surge characteristics over China before and after 2000[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2022, 44(6): 1757-1772.]
[32] 丁一汇, 任国玉, 石广玉, 等. 气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ): 中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2006, 3(1): 1-5.
[32] [Ding Yihui, Ren Guoyu, Shi Guangyu, et al. National Assessment Report of Climate Change (Ⅰ): Climate change in China and its future trend[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2006, 3(1): 1-5.]
Options
Outlines

/

〈 〉