干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2023 , Vol. 40 >Issue 9: 1414 - 1424

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2023.09.05

Land and Water Resources

Runoff trend and attribution analysis of the Zhengyi Gorge in the middle reaches of the Heihe River

  • Guanglu HU ,
  • Hu TAO ,
  • Jiao JIAO ,
  • Yuanru BAI ,
  • Haizhi CHEN ,
  • Jin MA
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  • 1. School of Environmental and Municipal Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Yellow River Water Environment in Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China

Received date: 2023-04-19

  Revised date: 2023-07-17

  Online published: 2023-09-28

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Abstract

This study utilized measured runoff data from the Zhengyi Gorge hydrological station in the middle reaches of the Heihe River to analyze the trend and mutation years of the runoff sequence from 1970 to 2020. Various methods, including linear regression, the Mann-Kendall mutation test, the sliding T mutation test, the Pettitt test, and cumulative offset verification, were employed for the analysis. Additionally, an attribution analysis of the runoff changes at the Zhengyi Gorge hydrological station was conducted using the Budyko water-energy coupled balance equation. The results indicate the following: (1) Over the study period, the runoff at Zhengyi Gorge showed fluctuations, alternating between periods of abundance and contraction but showed an overall increasing trend. The runoff experienced a mutation in 2004, resulting in a 3.08 × 108 m3 increase in average annual runoff volume, representing a growth rate of 32.7%. (2) In the period after the mutation (2005-2020), the elastic coefficients of runoff in response to precipitation, potential evaporation, and underlying surface parameters were 1.40, -0.40, and -1.57, respectively. The contribution rates of each factor to runoff were 42.73%, -12.52%, and 69.79%, respectively, indicating that runoff is most sensitive to underlying surface changes and that precipitation has a more significant impact on runoff than potential evaporation among climate factors. (3) Under certain regional climatic conditions, the changes in the underlying surface of the middle reaches caused by human activities, such as vegetation cover, land use, and watershed water transfer, are the main reasons for the changes in runoff at Zhengyi Gorge. The research findings can provide a scientific basis for river basin management departments to formulate water resource allocation and utilization plans.

Key words： runoff change; attribution analysis; coupled energy-water balance equation; climate change; human activity; the middle reaches of Heihe River

Cite this article

Guanglu HU , Hu TAO , Jiao JIAO , Yuanru BAI , Haizhi CHEN , Jin MA . Runoff trend and attribution analysis of the Zhengyi Gorge in the middle reaches of the Heihe River[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023 , 40(9) : 1414 -1424 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.09.05

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