干旱区研究

Arid Zone Research >

2023 , Vol. 40 >Issue 7: 1027 - 1039

DOI: https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2023.07.01

Weather and Climate

Evaluation of multi-model precipitation simulation over the Tibetan Plateau in early winter

  • Hongyan SHEN ,
  • Tingting WEN ,
  • Xianrong ZHAO ,
  • Xiaoli FENG
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  • 1. Shaanxi Meteorological Bureau, Key Laboratory of Eco-Environment and Meteorology for Qinling Mountains and Loess Plateau, Xi’an 710014, Shaanxi, China
    2. Qinghai Climate Center, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
    3. Shanxi Province Atmospheric Observation and Technical Support Center, Xi’an 710014, Shaanxi, China

Received date: 2023-03-08

  Revised date: 2023-05-17

  Online published: 2023-08-01

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Abstract

The prediction performance of four seasonal prediction model systems (BCC_CSM 1.1, ECMWF_System 5, CFSv 2, and TCC_MRI-CGCM 3) was evaluated from a deterministic perspective. Focusing on the spatial distribution and temporal variation of precipitation climatology in early winter, BCC_CSM 1.1 exhibited the best prediction performance among the models. Additionally, TCC_MRI-CGCM 3 performed well in capturing the interannual variability of precipitation, followed by BCC_CSM 1.1. All models effectively simulated regional-uniform precipitation, with BCC_CSM 1.1 exhibiting the highest time correlation coefficient and TCC_MRI-CGCM 3 showing the highest pattern correlation coefficient. Although all models could reproduce the north-south reverse mode, BCC_CSM 1.1 outperformed the other models in terms of reproducing the spatial pattern and interannual variation, given the model’s strong prediction capability for the Eurasian (EU) teleconnection pattern and western Pacific subtropical high, as well as accurate simulations of the physical processes of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) that impact early winter Tibetan Plateau precipitation.

Key words： precipitation; prediction ability; model assessment; Tibetan Plateau

Cite this article

Hongyan SHEN , Tingting WEN , Xianrong ZHAO , Xiaoli FENG . Evaluation of multi-model precipitation simulation over the Tibetan Plateau in early winter[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023 , 40(7) : 1027 -1039 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.07.01

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