Plant Ecology

Potential geographical distributions of Tugarinovia in China under climate change scenarios

  • Yanfen ZHAO ,
  • Borong PAN
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  • 1. College of Resources and Environment, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China
    2. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China

Received date: 2022-08-27

  Revised date: 2023-03-13

  Online published: 2023-06-21

Abstract

Tugarinovia is a genus that is endemic to the Alashan Desert in China. It is crucial for the conservation of Tugarinovia to predict the impact of climate change on its potential geographical distribution. This study was based on 34 sites of distribution of Tugarinovia in China and 22 environmental variables. The current and future (2050s and 2070s) changes in the pattern of distribution of Tugarinovia under three shared socio-economic paths (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in China were simulated using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The ability of model to predict these changes was verified by the area under curve (AUC) value under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the primary environmental factors that affect its distribution were analyzed using the Jackknife method and comprehensive contribution rate. The results showed the following: (1) The MaxEnt model has high simulation accuracy (AUC=0.992), and altitude, the warmest quarterly precipitation, the coldest quarterly precipitation, and annual average temperature are the dominant environmental factors that affect the geographical distribution of the Tugarinovia. (2) Currently, the suitable and highly suitable areas for Tugarinovia are both limited, with a suitable area of 37.08×104 km2 and a highly suitable area of 6.89×104 km2, which are primarily distributed along the Yinshan and Helan Mountains in a fragmented manner. (3) The future three climate scenarios suggest that the highly suitable areas of Tugarinovia will overall increase and display a significant increase under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario. The centroid of its suitable area mainly migrates to the east (Alxa Left Banner).

Cite this article

Yanfen ZHAO , Borong PAN . Potential geographical distributions of Tugarinovia in China under climate change scenarios[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023 , 40(6) : 949 -957 . DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.06.10

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