新疆和田河径流丰枯评价及组合分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.06.09

Abstract

Abstract:

Studies on the different contributions of the runoff of the Hotan River in different time periods and synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability can provide a reference for the balance of industrial water, potable water, and water ecological environment and the improvement of water resource utilization efficiency in the Hotan River Basin. Mean standard deviation and fuzzy set pair analysis methods are applied to evaluate the runoff wetness-dryness of the Yulong Kashi River and the Karakashi River. The possibility of inter-runoff water transfer and synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability is analyzed on the basis of fuzzy set pair method and copula function. The fuzzy set pair method reveals that the Yulong Kashi River had 10 and 26 wet and dry years, respectively. By comparison, the mean standard deviation method shows that the Yulong Kashi River had 15 and 20 wet and dry years, respectively. The Karakash River had 9 wet years. Furthermore, 18 and 26 times in dry years were observed. In the fuzzy set pair method, the contribution of annual runoff and the influence of time history distribution are considered. Thus, evaluation results are more objective, and the difference in the probability of abundance and dryness obtained by the statistical method and the copula function is the same as the data scale is related to the way of dividing the abundance and dryness. The results of the two methods demonstrate that the probability of asynchronous abundance and dryness is greater than that of synchronous abundance and dryness, and the two tributaries have good complementarity. They can more clearly describe the high and low runoff status and the characteristics of high and low runoff in the Hotan River. They can also provide a basis for making decisions on water resource dispatch in the Hotan River Basin.

Key words: fuzzy set pair method, Copula function, mean standard deviation method, synchronous-asynchronous combined, Hotan River, Xinjiang

HUANG Xing,CHEN Fulong,ZHAO Qi,HE Chaofei,LONG Aihua. Evaluation and combination analysis of runoff in Hotan River, Xinjiang[J].Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(6): 1570-1578.

Figures/Tables 8

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References 25

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类别	特枯	枯	平	丰	特丰
玉河	<57.554	<67.883	<78.111	<88.390	≥88.390
喀河	<53.288	<65.980	<78.673	<91.365	≥91.365

月份	玉河				喀河
月份	S₁	S₂	S₃	S₄	S₁	S₂	S₃	S₄
1	6.526	8.026	9.525	11.025	8.068	9.249	10.429	11.609
2	7.002	8.148	9.293	10.438	9.841	10.481	11.122	11.763
3	7.687	8.625	9.561	10.499	10.382	13.317	16.252	19.186
4	9.840	11.990	14.140	16.289	15.701	21.165	26.628	32.092
5	22.703	28.603	34.502	40.402	36.532	45.996	55.460	64.924
6	72.108	95.649	119.190	142.731	96.621	118.051	139.482	160.914
7	192.605	254.435	316.266	378.097	163.288	210.746	258.205	305.663
8	206.126	262.214	318.301	374.389	172.332	211.367	250.402	289.436
9	47.396	64.683	81.970	99.256	50.609	68.568	86.527	104.860
10	14.456	17.389	20.320	23.252	20.387	24.485	28.583	32.681
11	9.229	10.775	12.282	13.806	13.313	16.126	18.939	21.753
12	7.883	9.131	10.376	11.622	7.719	10.853	13.995	17.133

河流	丰枯同步概率/%					丰枯异步概率/%
河流	同丰	同平	同枯	合计		玉丰喀平	玉丰喀枯	玉平喀丰	玉平喀枯	玉枯喀丰	玉枯喀平	合计
玉河-喀河	2.77	17.54	15.51	35.83		9.23	5.54	5.26	10.52	7.75	25.85	64.17

分布状态	河流站点	检验方法	分布类型
分布状态	河流站点	检验方法	P-III	GEV	EXP	Normal
单变量分布	玉河	AIC	-405.534	-356.028	-392.461	-356.748
	玉河	RMSE	0.027	0.032	0.028	0.032
	喀河	AIC	-410.029	-332.626	-367.053	-332.017
	喀河	RMSE	0.026	0.034	0.03	0.035
联合变量分布	玉河-喀河		Frank	Gumbel	Gaussian	Clayton
		AIC	-429.895	-418.378	-408.106	-397.119
		RMSE	0.022	0.024	0.027	0.03

河流	丰枯同步概率/%					丰枯异步概率/%
河流	同丰	同平	同枯	合计		玉丰喀平	玉丰喀枯	玉平喀丰	玉平喀枯	玉枯喀丰	玉枯喀平	合计
玉河-喀河	8.41	18.48	21.41	48.3		5.76	8.33	5.76	11.76	8.33	11.76	51.7

Evaluation and combination analysis of runoff in Hotan River, Xinjiang

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年份	模糊集对法		均值标准差法		年份	模糊集对法		均值标准差法
年份	玉河	喀河	玉河	喀河	年份	玉河	喀河	玉河	喀河
1960	特枯	枯	丰	平	1989	枯	枯	特枯	枯
1961	丰	平	特丰	特丰	1990	平	平	平	丰
1962	枯	特枯	枯	特枯	1991	枯	平	枯	枯
1963	枯	枯	枯	枯	1992	特枯	枯	特枯	枯
1964	枯	枯	枯	枯	1993	特枯	枯	特枯	特枯
1965	特枯	特枯	特枯	特枯	1994	平	平	平	丰
1966	丰	枯	丰	丰	1995	平	枯	枯	枯
1967	平	平	平	丰	1996	平	平	平	枯
1968	枯	平	平	枯	1997	枯	平	枯	平
1969	枯	枯	枯	平	1998	平	平	平	枯
1970	平	平	平	平	1999	平	枯	平	枯
1971	平	平	特丰	平	2000	丰	平	丰	平
1972	枯	枯	枯	枯	2001	平	平	平	平
1973	枯	平	丰	平	2002	平	平	平	枯
1974	枯	枯	枯	枯	2003	平	平	平	丰
1975	枯	枯	枯	枯	2004	平	平	平	丰
1976	枯	枯	枯	枯	2005	丰	丰	丰	丰
1977	平	平	平	丰	2006	丰	丰	丰	丰
1978	平	丰	特丰	特丰	2007	平	平	平	平
1979	枯	平	枯	枯	2008	平	平	平	枯
1980	枯	平	枯	枯	2009	枯	平	枯	枯
1981	平	平	平	平	2010	特丰	丰	特丰	特丰
1982	枯	平	平	平	2011	特丰	丰	特丰	丰
1983	平	平	枯	丰	2012	特丰	特丰	特丰	丰
1984	枯	平	平	平	2013	特丰	平	特丰	平
1985	枯	平	平	枯	2014	平	特丰	平	枯
1986	特枯	枯	平	枯	2015	平	特丰	丰	特丰
1987	枯	枯	特枯	枯	2016	特丰	特丰	特丰	丰
1988	枯	平	平	丰

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