腾格里沙漠南缘昌岭山1872年以来干湿变化研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2021.05.13

Abstract

Abstract:

The Changling Mountain in the Southeast of Tengger Desert, which is sensitive to climate change was selected as the study area. The correlation between PDSI (Palmer Drought Index) from May to July and tree-ring width chronology were strongthe (r=0.621, P<0.001). Drought was the main controlling climatic factor of the growth of dominant species Picea crassifolia in Changling Mountain through the analysis of correlation between tree-ring width chronologies and climate factors. By setting up a linear regression equation of tree-ring width chronology and PDSI, the drought-wet variation in the past 146 years was reconstructed. At the same time, there were four dry periods in all (1882-1894, 1915-1936, 1966-1978, and 1989-2015) in the past 146 years based on the reconstructed PDSI interannual variation. The period analysis results showed that the reconstructed sequence had periods of around 2 a, 2.6-3 a and 11 a, indicating that the driving factors of drought-wet variation were El Nino Southern Oscillation and sunspot activity in the study area. The research results provide a scientific basis for discussing the drought and wet variation rules in Northwest China and predicting changes in the subalpine forest ecosystem under the condition future climate change.

Key words: Picea crassifolia, PDSI, drought-wet historical variation, tree-ring width chronology, Changling Mountain, Tengger Desert

QI Jing,JIAO Liang,CHEN Ke,QI Changliang,XUE Ruhong. Drought-wet variation of Changling Mountain in Southeast of Tengger Desert since 1872[J].Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(5): 1318-1326.

Figures/Tables 11

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统计特征	统计值
序列长度	1855—2017年
平均敏感度（MS）	0.187
标准差（SD）	0.312
一阶自回归系数（AC1）	0.61
序列间相关系数（r1）	0.297
树内相关系数（r2）	0.6715
树间相关系数（r3）	0.28
第一主分量方差（PC1）/%	0.351
信噪比（SNR）	10.14
样本总体解释量（EPS）/%	0.91
信号强度(SSS)>0.85起始年（树芯数）	1872年（9）

时段	校准期					时段	检验期
时段	r	R²	R²_adj	F	ST	时段	r	RE	CE	ST
1951—1983年	0.589	0.347	0.323	14.329	23+/10-*	1984—2017年	0.657	0.353	0.344	30+/4-**
1984—2017年	0.657	0.432	0.409	19.009	30+/4-**	1951—1983年	0.589	0.439	0.430	23+/10-*
1951—2017年	0.621	0.386	0.375	33.949	48+/19-**

干旱期	年数/a	气温距平值/℃
1882—1894年	13	-0.15
1915—1936年	22	-0.17
1966—1978年	13	-0.13
1989—2015年	26	-0.31

Drought-wet variation of Changling Mountain in Southeast of Tengger Desert since 1872

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