Arid Zone Research ›› 2021, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 950-960.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2021.04.06

• Water Resources and Utilization • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Dynamic evaluation of the risk of the spring snowmelt flood in Xinjiang

ZHOU Gang1,2(),CUI Manyi1,2,LI Zhe1,2,ZHANG Shiqiang1,2()   

  1. 1. Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, Shaanxi, China
    2. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, Shaanxi, China
  • Received:2021-01-11 Revised:2021-04-11 Online:2021-07-15 Published:2021-08-03
  • Contact: Shiqiang ZHANG E-mail:zg16397@163.com;zhangsq@lzb.ac.cn

Abstract:

Xinjiang is an area with abundant snow and frequent snowmelt floods. In the context of global climate change, the frequency of flood disasters in Xinjiang, especially snowmelt floods, has increased, and flood losses have increased. Based on the mechanism of the spring snowmelt flood in Xinjiang, this study investigates snow depth, elevation, and water system distance, combined with historical disaster data, and uses an objective information model and geographical information system technology on the risk of Xinjiang spring snowmelt flood disasters. A quantitative evaluation was conducted, and a zoning map of the risk of snowmelt flood in Xinjiang in spring was obtained. Furthermore, the dynamic hazard factors of daily positive accumulated temperature and daily precipitation were used to determine static Xinjiang spring snowmelt flood risk zoning, and a dynamic evaluation system of spring snowmelt flood risk was established, which dynamically analyzes the daily occurrence of spring snowmelt floods in Xinjiang. We found that the high-risk areas of spring snowmelt floods in Xinjiang are primarily distributed in the Ili River Valley, Bozhou, the northern slope of the middle Tianshan Mountain, the northern part of Tacheng, and the Altay region in northern Xinjiang. Additionally, the dynamic evaluation test of the snowmelt flood disaster in the Ili area of Xinjiang in mid-to-early March 2005 found that the accuracy of the dynamic evaluation result of the snowmelt flood risk was high, and it can be applied to the dynamic evaluation of snowmelt floods in Xinjiang. This study provides support for the prevention and control of spring snowmelt floods and water resource management in Xinjiang.

Key words: snowmelt flood, risk assessment, flood forecast, information model, Xinjiang