中国地表日平均风与日极大风气候特征的对比

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Comparative study on climate characteristics of daily mean wind and daily extreme wind throughout China

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doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.09.04

Abstract:

Studies have identified a long-term decline in the mean surface wind speed in China under the background of global warming. However, whether the extreme wind speed is consistent with the mean wind speed is worthy of investigation. Through the comparative analysis of the daily mean wind speed data and daily extreme wind speed data from the national basic weather stations for the years 1951 to 2018, the following conclusions are drawn: Nationwide, the daily mean wind speed is mainly concentrated at approximately 2 m·s^-1 and the daily extreme wind speed is mainly concentrated at approximately 8 m·s^-1; both wind speeds are larger in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and Inner Mongolia. In addition, the daily mean wind speed is more likely to be smaller, whereas the probability distribution of daily extreme wind speed is closer to a normal distribution. From 1960 to 2010, the daily mean wind speed decreased by 19%, while the daily extreme wind speed decreased even more significantly, up to 20%. However, after 2010, with the intensification of global warming, both speeds slightly rebounded; in particular, the daily mean wind speed has increased more significantly. These findings emphasize the importance of continuous attention and research into wind speed changes in the context of global warming, which are extremely helpful in comprehending the characteristics of surface wind speed changes in China, as well as providing a scientific reference for wind speed forecasting and wind energy development projects.

Key words: daily mean wind speed, daily extreme wind speed, climatic characteristics, differences in wind speed

NAN Yukun, LIU Peng, WANG Wei, CHEN Yizhi. Comparative study on climate characteristics of daily mean wind and daily extreme wind throughout China[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(9): 1468-1479.

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阈值百分比	日平均风速 /(m·s^-1)	日极大风速 /(m·s^-1)	日极大风速: 日平均风速
10%	0.9	4.9	5.4
20%	1.2	5.8	4.8
30%	1.5	6.6	4.4
40%	1.8	7.3	4.1
50%	2.1	8.0	3.8
60%	2.4	8.8	3.7
70%	2.8	9.7	3.5
80%	3.3	10.9	3.3
90%	4.1	12.6	3.1

时段	全年	冬季	春季	夏季	秋季
1951—2018年	0.86	0.85	0.86	0.83	0.74
1959—2003年	0.83	0.85	0.86	0.73	0.73
2003—2018年	0.94	0.90	0.74	0.94	0.86

		风速增长率/%
		1960年代	1970年代	1980年代	1990年代	2000年代	2010年代	累计增长率
日平均风	全年	1.0	0.8	-9.9	-6.5	-3.5	1.0	-17.1
	冬季	-0.8	-2.1	-10.7	-7.5	-2.3	2.7	-20.7
	春季	1.2	1.0	-9.7	-7.1	-4.2	-0.4	-19.2
	夏季	1.1	4.6	-9.2	-5.4	-3.3	0.9	-11.3
	秋季	1.4	0.1	-9.9	-5.7	-4.1	1.1	-17.1
日极大风	全年	3.1	-5.3	-0.2	-10.2	-4.3	-0.3	-17.2
	冬季	2.6	-5.7	-0.4	-11.4	-6.7	0.2	-21.4
	春季	1.7	-7.8	-1.4	-9.9	-1.9	1.1	-18.2
	夏季	5.5	-3.7	-0.3	-8.4	-4.9	-1.7	-13.5
	秋季	1.2	-2.8	0.8	-10.4	-6.2	-1.2	-18.6

时段	全国	Ⅰ区	Ⅱ区	Ⅲ区	Ⅳ区
1951—2018年	0.86^**	-	0.70^**	0.88^**	0.48^**
1959—2003年	0.83^**	-	0.62^**	0.55^**	0.52^**
2003—2018年	0.94^**	-	0.84^**	0.96^**	0.53^*

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Just accepted

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