基于LMDI-SD耦合模型的关中地区水资源承载力动态预测与调控

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.12.05

Abstract

Abstract:

To realize the dynamic prediction and quantitative regulation of water resource carrying capacity, an LMDI-SD coupling model based on the LMDI decomposition method, system dynamics (SD), and orthogonal test method was established. The coupling model uses the LMDI decomposition method to identify the driving factors of water consumption change, establishes the SD model to predict the water resource carrying capacity, takes the key driving factors of water consumption change of each department as the regulation index, comprehensively regulates the economic and social water use, and selects the optimal regulation scheme combined with the orthogonal test method. Applied to the dynamic prediction and regulation of water resource carrying capacity in the Guanzhong region between 2020 and 2035, the results show that the following: (1) the intensity effect is the key driving factor for the decrease in agricultural water consumption and the increase in domestic and ecological water consumption in the Guanzhong region between 2010 and 2019, whereas the scale effect is the key driving factor for the increase in industrial water consumption; (2) under the current development mode, the water resource bearing pressure of the whole Guanzhong region and cities will increase yearly from 2020 to 2035, and will be in an overloaded state by 2035 as the increase in total water consumption is far greater than the available water supply; (3) the Han to Wei River Diversion Project effectively alleviated the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in the Guanzhong area from the supply side. However, compared with the rapidly growing demand, water resources in some cities remain limited; therefore, they should be regulated from the demand side; (4) by restricting the expansion speed of industrial development, improving the level of agricultural water use, and slowing down the growth trend of domestic and ecological water use, the water resources in the Guanzhong region can be bearable from 2020 to 2035. The LMDI-SD coupling model constructed in this study has good practical application value for regional water resource planning and management within the framework of sustainable development.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity, dynamic prediction, quantitative regulation, system dynamics, Guanzhong region

JIA Qiong, SONG Xiaoyu, SONG Shuhong, LIU Xiaodi, QIN Lin, LIU Hui. Dynamic prediction and regulation of the water resource carrying capacity in the Guanzhong region based on the LMDI-SD coupling model[J].Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(12): 1918-1930.

Figures/Tables 16

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References 26

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状态变量	初始值
状态变量	西安	铜川	宝鸡	咸阳	渭南
人口总数/10⁴人	1020.35	78.01	376.10	435.62	527.81
耕地面积/10⁴hm²	24.09	7.16	29.17	39.16	48.10
工业增加值/10⁸元	1868.86	167.55	1127.74	845.12	694.56
林牧渔增加值/10⁸元	82.98	11.32	120.81	120.81	148.48

常量	取值
常量	西安	铜川	宝鸡	咸阳	渭南
产流系数	0.24	0.09	0.23	0.06	0.09
城镇污水排放系数	0.8
工业污水排放系数	0.5

年份	人口总量			工业增加值			用水总量
年份	S/10⁴人	H/10⁴人	E/%	S/10⁸元	H/10⁸元	E/%	S/10⁸m³	H/10⁸m³	E/%
2010	2322	2322	0.00	2428	2428	0.00	48.87	48.75	0.26
2011	2330	2330	0.00	3067	3065	0.08	50.85	50.32	1.06
2012	2338	2338	0.01	3673	3659	0.37	51.92	51.33	1.14
2013	2345	2345	0.01	4034	4097	1.53	52.11	51.79	0.60
2014	2352	2353	0.02	4134	4181	1.13	52.50	52.88	0.71
2015	2364	2365	0.02	4207	4267	1.42	53.52	53.81	0.53
2016	2380	2381	0.04	4268	4243	0.58	52.28	53.18	1.68
2017	2400	2399	0.04	4699	4670	0.63	54.10	54.47	0.68
2018	2430	2427	0.13	4820	4846	0.52	52.99	52.99	0.00
2019	2467	2438	1.18	4769	4704	1.39	51.56	51.50	0.12
2020	2560	2610	1.92	4342	4326	0.37	46.70	47.20	1.06
2021	2570	2640	2.65	5144	5230	1.64	48.16	48.53	0.76

用水部门	贡献度
用水部门	强度效应ΔQ	结构效应ΔS	规模效应ΔD	累积效应
农业	-7.30	-3.99	6.26	-5.03
工业	-5.99	-4.26	6.85	-3.40
生活	1.19	0.75	1.06	3.00
生态	3.47	-0.30	0.21	3.38
用水总量	-8.63	-7.80	14.38	-2.05

指标	年份	西安	铜川	宝鸡	咸阳	渭南	关中
人口/10⁴人	2025	1245	77	372	440	517	2650
	2030	1402	75	364	444	520	2805
	2035	1576	74	354	447	524	2975
城镇化率	2025	0.77	0.70	0.65	0.60	0.60	0.66
	2030	0.79	0.72	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.69
	2035	0.80	0.73	0.70	0.70	0.65	0.72
工业增加值/10⁸元	2025	3020	206	1934	985	984	7129
	2030	4453	238	3115	1448	1513	10767
	2035	6506	276	5017	2127	2328	16255
可供水量/10⁸ m³	2025	22.63	1.02	8.12	11.16	15.43	58.36
	2030	24.86	1.08	8.23	11.48	15.89	61.53
	2035	27.56	1.15	8.35	11.84	16.60	65.51
用水总量/10⁸ m³	2025	24.52	1.06	8.14	9.20	15.02	57.93
	2030	30.38	1.18	8.81	10.02	16.34	66.73
	2035	38.00	1.34	9.93	11.12	19.05	79.44
水资源承载指数	2025	1.08	1.04	1.00	0.82	0.97	0.99
	2030	1.22	1.09	1.07	0.87	1.03	1.08
	2035	1.38	1.17	1.19	0.94	1.15	1.21

Dynamic prediction and regulation of the water resource carrying capacity in the Guanzhong region based on the LMDI-SD coupling model

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取值	单位面积农田灌溉用水量/(m³·hm^-2)	工业增加值增加率/%	城镇居民生活用水定额/(L·人^-1·d^-1）	农村居民生活用水定额/((L·人^-1·d^-1）	人均生态用水量/(m³·人^-1）
现状值	15.44	9	163.00	78.00	14.82
调控依据值	14.23	3	123.37	63.66	10.83

水平	调控倍比
水平	单位面积农田灌溉用水量/(m³·hm^-2)	工业增加值增加率/%	城镇居民生活用水定额/(L·人^-1·d^-1）	农村居民生活用水定额/((L·人^-1·d^-1）	人均生态用水量/(m³·人^-1）
1	-0.02	-0.18	-0.06	-0.05	-0.07
2	-0.04	-0.36	-0.12	-0.09	-0.13
3	-0.06	-0.54	-0.18	-0.14	-0.20
4	-0.08	-0.72	-0.24	-0.18	-0.27

编号	单位面积农田灌溉用水量/(m³·hm^-2)	工业增加值增加率/%	城镇居民生活用水定额/(L·人^-1·d^-1）	农村居民生活用水定额/((L·人^-1·d^-1）	人均生态用水量/(m³·人^-1）
1	1	1	1	1	1
2	1	2	2	2	2
3	1	3	3	3	3
4	1	4	4	4	4
5	2	1	2	3	4
6	2	2	1	4	3
7	2	3	4	1	2
8	2	4	3	2	1
9	3	1	3	4	2
10	3	2	4	3	1
11	3	3	1	2	4
12	3	4	2	1	3
13	4	1	4	2	3
14	4	2	3	1	4
15	4	3	2	4	1
16	4	4	1	3	2

调控方案	西安		铜川		宝鸡		渭南
调控方案	WRCI	ABS(WRCI-1)	WRCI	ABS(WRCI-1)	WRCI	ABS(WRCI-1)	WRCI	ABS(WRCI-1)
1	1.10	0.10	1.13	0.13	1.00	0.00	0.99	0.01
2	1.03	0.03	1.09	0.09	0.90	0.10	0.95	0.05
3	0.96	0.04	1.06	0.06	0.83	0.17	0.92	0.08
4	0.90	0.10	1.02	0.02	0.76	0.24	0.90	0.10
5	1.05	0.05	1.11	0.11	0.96	0.04	0.97	0.03
6	1.02	0.02	1.09	0.09	0.90	0.10	0.94	0.06
7	0.97	0.03	1.05	0.05	0.82	0.18	0.92	0.08
8	0.85	0.15	0.99	0.01	0.79	0.21	0.91	0.09
9	1.06	0.06	1.10	0.10	0.95	0.05	0.97	0.03
10	1.02	0.02	1.07	0.07	0.87	0.13	0.94	0.06
11	0.97	0.03	1.07	0.07	0.84	0.16	0.91	0.09
12	0.94	0.06	1.05	0.05	0.79	0.21	0.90	0.10
13	1.04	0.04	1.09	0.09	0.93	0.07	0.96	0.04
14	0.99	0.01	1.07	0.07	0.87	0.13	0.93	0.07
15	1.00	0.00	1.07	0.07	0.82	0.18	0.91	0.09
16	0.96	0.04	1.05	0.05	0.79	0.21	0.89	0.11

城市	年份	单位面积农田灌溉用水量/(m³·hm^-2)		工业增加值增加率/%		城镇居民生活用水定额/(L·人^-1·d^-1）		农村居民生活用水定额/((L·人^-1·d^-1）		人均生态用水量/(m³·人^-1）
城市	年份	调控前	调控后	调控前	调控后	调控前	调控后	调控前	调控后	调控前	调控后
西安	2025	130	120	8	4	212	186	80	66	32	30
	2030	120	111	8	4	220	193	76	62	38	35
	2035	110	101	8	4	224	196	75	62	43	40
铜川	2025	110	105	3	1	121	104	65	64	5	6
	2030	105	101	3	1	127	109	71	67	6	7
	2035	103	99	3	1	133	115	74	70	7	7
宝鸡	2025	110	107	10	8	161	151	127	121	9	9
	2030	105	103	10	8	177	167	158	150	11	10
	2035	103	101	10	8	190	179	174	166	13	12
渭南	2025	110	107	9	7	109	103	95	91	11	10
	2030	105	103	9	7	102	96	110	105	12	12
	2035	103	101	9	7	96	90	116	111	13	12

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编号	单位面积农田灌溉用水量/(m³·hm^-2)	工业增加值增加率/%	城镇居民生活用水定额/(L·人^-1·d^-1）	农村居民生活用水定额/((L·人^-1·d^-1）	人均生态用水量/(m³·人^-1）
1	1	1	1	1	1
2	1	2	2	2	2
3	1	3	3	3	3
4	1	4	4	4	4
5	2	1	2	3	4
6	2	2	1	4	3
7	2	3	4	1	2
8	2	4	3	2	1
9	3	1	3	4	2
10	3	2	4	3	1
11	3	3	1	2	4
12	3	4	2	1	3
13	4	1	4	2	3
14	4	2	3	1	4
15	4	3	2	4	1
16	4	4	1	3	2

编号	单位面积农田灌溉用水量/(m³·hm^-2)	工业增加值增加率/%	城镇居民生活用水定额/(L·人^-1·d^-1）	农村居民生活用水定额/((L·人^-1·d^-1）	人均生态用水量/(m³·人^-1）
1	1	1	1	1	1
2	1	2	2	2	2
3	1	3	3	3	3
4	1	4	4	4	4
5	2	1	2	3	4
6	2	2	1	4	3
7	2	3	4	1	2
8	2	4	3	2	1
9	3	1	3	4	2
10	3	2	4	3	1
11	3	3	1	2	4
12	3	4	2	1	3
13	4	1	4	2	3
14	4	2	3	1	4
15	4	3	2	4	1
16	4	4	1	3	2